CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8

[KCDem]

More junk from Quinnijoke polling

[backtored]

So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not?  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race.  In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin.  Is he up eight?  Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.

The +6 might have been a stretch, but it was at least in the ballpark of other polls (the two before and after it was +4, +2, +3, +4).  This poll is 7 points off from anything else out recently, 6 points off from anything out the entire cycle.

There have been polls showing Gardner up four and Gardner up two.  Like I said, the point isn't that Gardner is up by eight.  The point is that it doesn't make a lot of sense to infer from the data that either candidate has much of a durable lead.  The Lean-D proposition is hard to sustain when two polls in two days show the Democrat losing, especially when one of those margins is eight points.

[Senator Cris]

I don't know if Gardner is really in the lead, but if he leads, he leads by 1-2%.

[Torie]

Senator Udall may soon have more to worry about than whether or not this poll is an outlier gone bad, or something suggesting that the the seams are coming apart in his hull -  to wit, that he appears at least facially to have been less than candid, and perhaps totally disingenuous, or just an ineffectual vacillator, on the matter of health care delivery systems in the US - from advocating  just making the private insurance system better, then a 180 degree tack to embracing the public option, and finally landing at the conclusion of his personal little Space Odyssey, upon the little bit of this, a little bit of that, now riddled with executive order waivers and delays, designed to be motored by the toothless now verging on eviscerated mandate penalty, Rube Goldberg toy commonly known as Obamacare.


Expert to hear a lot more about this one from the Gardner campaign. It just drains away Udall's gravitas, and makes him seem just like an opportunistic hack. I suspect he's done myself. We shall see. Indeed, with each week, it seems overall that the prospects for the Dems overall are deteriorating.

[Person Man]

Maybe this year will have R+7 but I don't know how demographic trends could support it. Maybe fracking is causing southern oilmen to move to Colorado?

In 2010 and 2012, it was D+5. In 2008, it was R+1.

[RogueBeaver]

Team Gardner spoke to NR's Jim Geraghty yesterday: here's what they said on turnout.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Person Man]

Team Gardner spoke to NR's Jim Geraghty yesterday: here's what they said on turnout.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Though that is what internals have compiled, but maybe they are wrong, maybe they are right.

[IceSpear]

All pollsters have outliers, even good ones. This is why you don't rely on any single poll. Gardner's best case scenario is probably being up 1-3% at the moment.

That said, I do agree that many people calling this race "lean D" a little while ago was premature.

[Mr. Reactionary]

All pollsters have outliers, even good ones. This is why you don't rely on any single poll. Gardner's best case scenario is probably being up 1-3% at the moment.

That said, I do agree that many people calling this race "lean D" a little while ago was premature.

[Free Bird]

It's fine if you want to like a poll that produces a result that you find favorable to your own personal view, but you can't expect everyone else to nod in agreement. With an R+7 electorate in 2010, Buck still lost, so this poll could still be off even if you go by that standard. +8 is way too inflated.

Tell that to Democrats here too

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-09-15

Summary: D: 40%, R: 48%, I: 8%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[backtored]

The movement even within each individual poll has been favorable to Gardner.  Here is the movement for each polling company between now and the last poll that that company released:

PPP: Gardner +3

Rasmussen: Udall +1

Survey USA: New

CBS/NYT/YouGov: Gardner +1

Suffolk: New

Quinnipiac: Gardner +6

The last batch of polling was more favorable to Udall than the present batch, which is why many thought that Udall was polling away (get it?).  I find it more helpful to actually look at trends within each poll, and it is heartening to see that an entire summer of super-spending by Udall aimed at Gardner's abortion stance hasn't weakened the Republican much at all.  Now that there is a parity of spending, Gardner is probably feeling reasonably good about where he stands, even if it will still be a razor tight election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Usually Quinnipiac is very reliable, but this is one huge outlier.

[Ogre Mage]

538 says of the recent Quinnipiac Iowa and Colorado Senate polls:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-optimistic-numbers-for-gop-in-colorado-and-iowa/

Additionally, when Quinnipiac polled the Colorado Senate race in mid-July and found the race at Gardner +1, they had Latino voters as 13% of the voter sample.  The partisan breakdown was  29% R / 27% D, which seems plausible.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co07162014_demos_Cy429pb.pdf

In this most recent poll with with Gardner up +8, Quinnipiac only included Latino voters as 8% of the sample.  So in the last two months, they have decided that the Latino share of the electorate will drop by about 38%!  And as others have mentioned, this poll is weighted at 34% R / 27% D.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co09172014_demos_czm75h.pdf

I don't know the reason for these changes, but the current poll's sample has been shifted to be extremely GOP friendly.  No wonder Hickenlooper and Udall did so poorly.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe this poll is not really an outlier. There's a chance that the GOP swamped the airwaves with their ads when the poll was conducted or slightly before. Now things are back to a tie.

[Person Man]

Maybe this poll is not really an outlier. There's a chance that the GOP swamped the airwaves with their ads when the poll was conducted or slightly before. Now things are back to a tie.

Like the time Kerry was ahead by 10 and looked good in Missouri,  Ohio and Florida?