Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2019, 04:51:37 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | | | |-+  CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8 (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8  (Read 3113 times)
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile
« on: September 18, 2014, 08:06:14 am »

Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2014, 08:33:19 am »

Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.

I'll go with that.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2014, 09:40:32 am »

Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.

Quinnipiac occasionally throws out crap numbers. Otherwise they're a good pollster. This is one of the crap ones.

Yeah. He won by 2, right?
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2014, 10:43:39 am »

Maybe this year will have R+7 but I don't know how demographic trends could support it. Maybe fracking is causing southern oilmen to move to Colorado?

In 2010 and 2012, it was D+5. In 2008, it was R+1.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2014, 12:05:50 pm »

Team Gardner spoke to NR's Jim Geraghty yesterday: here's what they said on turnout.
Quote from: NR
Note that in the above figures, the Republican advantage is considerably higher in midterm years. Strategists close to the Gardner campaign are hoping for a similar margin in 2014 though, out of caution, they are basing their turnout calculations on a much closer one.

Though that is what internals have compiled, but maybe they are wrong, maybe they are right.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2014, 08:37:38 am »

Maybe this poll is not really an outlier. There's a chance that the GOP swamped the airwaves with their ads when the poll was conducted or slightly before. Now things are back to a tie.

Like the time Kerry was ahead by 10 and looked good in Missouri,  Ohio and Florida?
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines