GOP Dark Horses that can come out of nowhere, and win big

[The Vorlon]

The GOP has a real choice to make in 2008 as a party (so do the Dems, but it's a different choice)

2004 was very unusual in that it really was a "Battle of the Bases" with both sides spending an historically unprecedented % of their budgets, time, policy pronouncements and campaign strategy rallying the base almost at the expense of the swing voters.

Bush LOST Ohio independants by 19% and still won the state, as an example of the polarization.

I just don't see a GOP candidate out there who can inspire both that level of turnout and devotion from the GOP base as Bush did in 2004

Which leaves a move to the center....

Both Coleman and Pawlenty are a lot closer to the middle politically than Bush.  If the GOP starts to crowd the center, 2008 could be a very interesting race.

If Hillary gets the Dem nomination 2008 could almost be a mirror image of 2004 where "HateHillary" replaces "HateBush" as the underlying theme of the whole show. ie thew Dem base versus "HateHillary" like 2004 was the GOOP base versus "HateBush"

I would personally like to see the GOP run a Libertarian wing candidate (hard right economically, socially liberal) but I really doubt that will happen.

There is a possibility that 2008 could be even more divisive that 2004.

If the Dems pick an "abortion on demand, owned by the teachers, I hate America"  candidate, it would allow the GOP to run a Moral Majority (sic) counter crazy and again try to run a  "My base is bigger than your base" type election like 2004

If, as I expect, the Dems have a pretty strong cycle in 2006, I imagine the GOP moderates will have a much better shot at things.

[The Vorlon]

You thought the Dems were going to have a pretty strong cycle in 2004.

I did not

I said the GOP would pick up 3 seats net in the Senate, that the House would be essentially unchanged, andf that Bush would get elected "By about a field goal"

The GOP picked up 4 in the senate and a handful in the House, and Bush won by somehwre between a safety and a Field goal...

I don't think the House will move much in 2006 - that body is SOOOOOO gerrymandered it is hard to imagine much movement at all....

Did you know in 2004 on NINE House race in the entire county were decide by less than 5%, only 18 had a margin less than 10%

417/435 races were 10%+ races...

scary actually....

The Senate will be interesting...  The Dems have more seats up, but the GOP might be in a bit more trouble..

Safe Dems

Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI) 
Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM)
Carper, Thomas - (D - DE)
Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY) 
Conrad, Kent - (D - ND) 
Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) 
Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) 
Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA)
Jeffords, James - (I - VT) (Defacto Dem seat)
Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA) 
Kohl, Herb - (D - WI)
Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT)

Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) - It is Nebraska, so the GOP always has a shot, but Nelson should get a solid though likely not crushing win.

Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) - Sarbanes is retiring, so it's a open seat...  which give the GOP about the same shot a Muslim has of become Pope...

Safe GOP
 
Allen, George - (R - VA) 
Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) 
DeWine, Mike - (R - OH) 
Ensign, John - (R - NV)

Frist, Bill - (R - TN) - Frist is retiring to run for President, GOP still has the edge

Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT)
Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX)
Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ)
Lott, Trent - (R - MS)
Lugar, Richard - (R - IN)
Thomas, Craig - (R - WY)

Possible GOP Pickups

Byrd, Robert - (D - WV)  - If Byrd is both a) alive and b) a candidate he wins in a walk, but a & b are hardly givens.  Without Byrd WV would have a mild GOP lean for the Senate seat.

Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA)  - Cantwell is, at best, a middle of the pack Senator, and (presumably) Dino Rossi will have sympathy, name recognition, a ton of money and a Gore2000 like "we was robbed" intensity - This seat is a barn burner - too close to call.

Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) - Lackluster victory in 2000 against a very ordinary GOP candidate, GOP is targeting this seat

Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) An 'adaquate" candidate in a mildly Dem leaning state so she has a edge, but not a huge one.  A "B+" or better GOP candidate with enough money has a shot..
 
Possible Dem Pickups
 
Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI)  A (nominally)GOP candidate in Rhode Island is by definition vulnerable

Snowe, Olympia - (R - ME) - See Rhode Island, just less so... Snowe is a very good Senator and should win, but don't expect it to be 20 points..

Talent, James - (R - MO)  - Good Senator and great logistics.  Race will be close however.
 
Santorum, Rick - (R - PA)  - The most likely (IMHO) Dem Pickup.  To say Santorum is a "target" is like saying Hitler has issues with anger management...  On a dollars per vote basis, this may be the most expensive election in the history of the Mid-west..

Casey will likely edge him out for a modest victory, say 52 / 48 or so...