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  HI: Civil Beat: Ige (D) up 4
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Author Topic: HI: Civil Beat: Ige (D) up 4  (Read 1383 times)
Miles
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« on: September 22, 2014, 10:11:08 am »

Article.

Ige (D)- 43%
Aiona (R)- 39%
Hanneman (I)- 8%
Davis (L)- 2%
Not sure- 8%

You'd expect Ige to be doing better, considering Hannemann is in single-digits.
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backtored
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2014, 11:29:01 am »

Article.



You'd expect Ige to be doing better, considering Hannemann is in single-digits.


No, I have expected this race to be really tight all along.  Hawaii has always been a toss-up according to the polls.  A lot of people have (and may still) refused to believe them.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2014, 11:30:54 am »

^ RRH has had this as Lean D for at least since the primary and I agree with their reasoning.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2014, 11:41:26 am »

Ige will win by at least ten points.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2014, 12:50:03 pm »


LOL
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2014, 01:01:47 pm »

Ige will likely massively overperform on election day and win by 10-15 points.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2014, 01:16:12 pm »


Lots of love to you too, buddy.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2014, 04:26:43 pm »


Nothing funny about that.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/hi/hawaii_governor_aiona_vs_abercrombie-1163.html

Much like Alaska, Hawaii polls are garbage.
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Watermelon sin Jamn
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2014, 02:28:20 am »

And why is that ? Is there a serious study on this question somewhere ? I keep hearing that, and it seems to be true, but I can't figure out why. These two states not being in the contiguous ones can't be a sufficient one, can it ?
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2014, 04:30:44 am »


But in opposite directions. Good news for Ige. Bad news for Begich.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2014, 04:52:33 am »

Ige will win by at least ten points.
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SWE
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2014, 05:24:25 am »

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Vega
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2014, 05:54:23 am »

Hawaii polls suck. Ige will win by a good 7-12 points.

There was a poll that showed Abercrombie only up two on Aiona in 2010, yet Abercrombie won by 17 points. There are tons of example out there, Hawaii polls are junk.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2014, 10:58:21 am »

The crosstabs, FWIW.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2014, 04:02:39 pm »

Ige should slowly do better in the polls and then win by upper-single digits on election day. Usually that's how Hawaii works.
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2014, 06:06:17 pm »

Interestingly enough, Ige is getting 66% of Demcorats, about what he got in the primary. He's at 70% of Liberals; suggesting there are still some from Abercrombie's base who haven't gone home to him.

Aiona is crushing with Indies and is doing better than Hannemann with Democrats.
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Vega
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2014, 06:08:20 pm »

Interestingly enough, Ige is getting 66% of Demcorats, about what he got in the primary. He's at 70% of Liberals; suggesting there are still some from Abercrombie's base who haven't gone home to him.

Aiona is crushing with Indies and is doing better than Hannemann with Democrats.

Too bad this poll is junk. Don't read into it.
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2014, 06:19:22 pm »

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Vega
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2014, 06:40:33 pm »

I don't want to come off as a jerk, but it's annoying to see people who think this is a accurate poll since there have been so many example of horrendous Hawaii polling.

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