HI-01/Civil Beat: Djou (R) up 4 vs. Takai

[Tender Branson]

HI-01:

46% Djou (R)
42% Takai (D)

HI-02:

70% Gabbard (D)
17% Crowley (R)

http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/09/civil-beat-poll-gops-djou-up-by-4-points-over-democrat-takai-in-cd1

[Vega]

Hahahahaha.

Yeah right.

[Miles]

'Heap of salt, but good news for R's if true.

[Mr. Reactionary]

if only.

[free my dawg]

lol

[Vosem]

If Aiona is running close to Ige upballot (which all the polls are showing, though tbf Hawaii polling), he's certainly winning here, and Hawaii marches to a 'different' drumbeat. That said, while I can see Djou making this very close, it's difficult for me not to see Takai pulling it out at the end, perhaps with White House help (this is a part of the country where Obama still plays well, remarkably).

[Vega]

Obama still plays well, remarkably.

It's hardly remarkable - Hawaii is a heavily Democratic state with a Democratic President who was born there.

[IceSpear]

It's a Hawaii poll, but as I've said for a while now, it would be a big mistake for Dems to underestimate Djou. He held Hanabusa to a 55-45 win in 2012 even as Obama was dominating in the state.

[KCDem]

Takai will curb stomp Djou. Move along.

[SamInTheSouth]

Djou won this seat before, but that was in a three way race in a special election.  It's difficult to imagine him winning a D+18 seat in a general election even if the D was a bad candidate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While this race going the way of Djou isn't impossible, if it does, the GOP will have attained a gain of roughly 30 seats in the house of representatives.

[Maxwell]

As much as I would like to feel joyful for this, Djou led Hanabusa by 6 in Mid-October in a Hawaii poll and lost by 6. Not only is it #hawaiipolling but its also #congressionalpolling, so this race is basically a shot in the dark, but my best guess is Takai is favored by anywhere from 3 to 10 points.

[Vega]

Djou won this seat before, but that was in a three way race in a special election.  It's difficult to imagine him winning a D+18 seat in a general election even if the D was a bad candidate.

If Djou lost against Colleen Hanabusa 2 times, than I'm sure Takai will win by at least 7 points. He's a much better candidate than Hanabusa.

[Maxwell]

Djou won this seat before, but that was in a three way race in a special election.  It's difficult to imagine him winning a D+18 seat in a general election even if the D was a bad candidate.

If Djou lost against Colleen Hanabusa 2 times, than I'm sure Takai will win by at least 7 points. He's a much better candidate than Hanabusa.

Eh, they're both running to the center is what I've been hearing, which is strange because Takai running to the left would probably win it for him.