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Author Topic: VA-Quinnipiac: Gillespiementum?  (Read 972 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: September 25, 2014, 07:12:35 am »

Warner (D) 48%
Gillespie (R) 39%
Sarvis (L) 6%

Without Sarvis:

Warner (D) 50%
Gillespie (R) 41%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2086
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 07:14:52 am by Cris »Logged

Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2014, 07:28:40 am »

Warner under 50!!!1!!!!1!! #Tossup/Tilt R #RepublicanWave #MakeDCListen
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Vox Populi
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2014, 08:50:32 am »

Quinnipiac is really going to take a beating after this election is all said and done
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KCDem
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2014, 08:56:48 am »

HAHAHAHAHAHA
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2014, 09:03:08 am »

I usually trust Quinnipiac, but this looks quite off. Especially with this:

"Independent voters are split with 43 percent for Gillespie, 41 percent for Warner and 9 percent for Sarvis."

And this, which seems to contradict the fairly close horse race finding:

"Warner has strong leads on character traits:
Voters say 57 - 26 percent he is honest and trustworthy, compared to 39 - 19 percent for Gillespie;
Warner cares about their needs and problems, voters say 55 - 35 percent, compared to 39 - 29 percent for Gillespie;
Warner has strong leadership qualities, voters say 68 - 22 percent, compared to 41 - 21 percent for Gillespie."


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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2014, 09:19:03 am »

This confirms that Quinnipiac is producing outliers this cycle. You can pretty much dismiss their polling in Iowa and Colorado now, which already looked very off.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2014, 09:34:10 am »

Quinnipiac is really going to take a beating after this election is all said and done

The only other pollsters taking this race are Roanake, and they're terrible. I want to see a legit pollster tackle this before we call this an outlier.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2014, 09:54:53 am »

It seems that Quinnipiac's likely voters screen is extremely tight, hence the decidedly pro-Republican results. 
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2014, 10:09:36 am »

Quinnipiac has quite the R-bias this year.
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Mister Jellybean
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2014, 10:17:32 am »

I'll believe this as much as I believe that Gardner is up 8 and Ernst is up 6. Take 10 points off. That's probably more correct. It would make Iowa D+2 in turnout and Colorado R+2. Which is about where they are in terms of demographics.
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2014, 09:30:49 pm »

I'd take this poll with a grain of salt, but it would be great if Gillespie actually is closing the gap with Warner like Quinnipiac is indicating. Hopefully PPP will poll this race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2014, 09:37:54 pm »

I think Quinnipiac's LV model this cycle is way too strict. I mean, Warner leading by only 1 more point than Gardner, really?
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WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

U.S. House District 5

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Rich Lazer
2,052   60.3%
   
Molly Sheehan
337   9.9   
Mary Scanlon
271   8.0   

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