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Author Topic: CO-PPP: Gardner+2  (Read 3395 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 25, 2014, 11:10:07 am »

652 likely Colorado voters, Sept. 19 to Sept. 21:

47-45 Gardner/Udall

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2014/09/25/another-day-another-poll-shows-dead-heat-mark-udall-cory-gardner/113238

https://twitter.com/ppppolls
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2014, 11:12:02 am »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 11:17:05 am by IDS Emperor Maxwell »Logged
King Francis I
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2014, 11:14:01 am »

Oh **** Sad
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2014, 11:14:33 am »

BOOYAH! Grin
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backtored
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2014, 11:18:43 am »

Decent.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2014, 11:20:13 am »

I still have strong faith in the CO Republican Party to blow this in the end ...
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2014, 11:22:44 am »

That would line up with Gardner losing by a couple of points, same as Buck did.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2014, 11:23:05 am »

Uh oh. RIP Udall. Sad
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backtored
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2014, 11:25:00 am »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

1.) Unless you're on a Marist-only polling diet, the race has been essentially tied for the entire campaign.

2.) You're right about the lessons learned from Buck/Bennet.  With the exception of the low-turnout off-year 2013 conservative fiesta, the GOP in Colorado has frequently underperformed on Election Day.  Maybe 2013 was a signal of a realigned, GOP-leaning electorate, but otherwise I have to assume that the GOP will probably not do quite as well as the polling suggests.  We'll see.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 11:27:36 am by backtored »Logged
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2014, 11:35:54 am »

Crosstabs.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2014, 11:36:12 am »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

1.) Unless you're on a Marist-only polling diet, the race has been essentially tied for the entire campaign.

2.) You're right about the lessons learned from Buck/Bennet.  With the exception of the low-turnout off-year 2013 conservative fiesta, the GOP in Colorado has frequently underperformed on Election Day.  Maybe 2013 was a signal of a realigned, GOP-leaning electorate, but otherwise I have to assume that the GOP will probably not do quite as well as the polling suggests.  We'll see.

To address 1), Gardner was doing fine enough, but with Udall barely ahead, it was bound to be Udall favorable, and to be fair, I wasn't really sure Gardner had what it takes. I'm still not, but he's proving me wrong.

That would line up with Gardner losing by a couple of points, same as Buck did.

The last PPP poll in Colorado that year had Buck up 1. Gardner up 2 suggests an incredibly narrow victory for Udall. If Gardner is up 3 or more by election day, he probably wins it.
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Potus
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2014, 11:37:03 am »

R +1.
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2014, 11:39:02 am »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2014, 11:39:14 am »

F[inks]ing Yes!
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backtored
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2014, 11:40:43 am »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.

Exactly.  But even assuming that PPP is off by three points every single Colorado election, this is still not bad at all for Gardner.

Didn't PPP actually overestimate Obama's performance in Colorado by a point or two, anyway?

Moreover, I'm not on for picking apart crosstabs, because it is usually a fruitless exercise far beyond my credentials, but I'll just note that the sample in the PPP poll actually has more Democrats than Republicans as well as a 14% Hispanic sample.  There has been a lot of talk around here about Latinos staying home in protest of the White House immigration executive order delay.  In fact, I've seen that discussion in the national press, too, so I suspect that it is something that Democrats really are worried about.  I can't imagine an electorate any more D-leaning than what PPP has produced here, and still the Republicans leads by two.  Good stuff.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 11:44:33 am by backtored »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2014, 11:42:32 am »

Hahahaha! Even PPP? Good people are taking the treasury back!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2014, 11:44:07 am »

Either way, some of the crosstabs are troubling - While Independents are tied (undecideds there would be very Gardner-leaning is my guess), 10% of Democrats are undecided, and once most, if not all, come home, then Udall gets a decent sized boost.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2014, 11:44:45 am »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.

Exactly.  But even assuming that PPP is off by three points every single Colorado election, this is still not bad at all for Gardner.

Didn't PPP actually overestimate Obama's performance in Colorado by a point or two, anyway?

PPP had Obama 52-46,  result was 51.45-46.09
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backtored
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2014, 11:48:41 am »

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.

Exactly.  But even assuming that PPP is off by three points every single Colorado election, this is still not bad at all for Gardner.

Didn't PPP actually overestimate Obama's performance in Colorado by a point or two, anyway?

PPP had Obama 52-46,  result was 51.45-46.09

Therefore Gardner is really up 2.64 points instead of merely two.

I'm kidding.  I'm kidding.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2014, 12:37:13 pm »

Oh sh*t. This is bad.
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Devils30
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2014, 12:38:18 pm »

Vote by mail could give Udall a small boost too.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2014, 12:43:17 pm »

That said, I still think Udall wins unless Gardner has a clean lead before voting starts.
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2014, 12:53:43 pm »

Vote by mail could give Udall a small boost too.

I'm sure that that is being incorporated into pollsters' turnout models.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2014, 12:56:08 pm »

Udall has a shot with undecideds - they are mostly somewhat liberal or moderate.
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Snek!
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2014, 01:05:00 pm »

What's interesting is that Gardner is leading by 2 in a sample that's almost 70% pro-choice. Either Colorado really is Libertarian or Udall is running a sh**tty campaign.
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