Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.
Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.
I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.
Exactly. But even assuming that PPP is off by three points every single Colorado election, this is still not bad at all for Gardner.
Didn't PPP actually overestimate Obama's performance in Colorado by a point or two, anyway?
Moreover, I'm not on for picking apart crosstabs, because it is usually a fruitless exercise far beyond my credentials, but I'll just note that the sample in the PPP poll actually has more Democrats than Republicans as well as a 14% Hispanic sample. There has been a lot of talk around here about Latinos staying home in protest of the White House immigration executive order delay. In fact, I've seen that discussion in the national press, too, so I suspect that it is something that Democrats really are worried about. I can't imagine an electorate any more D-leaning than what PPP has produced here, and still the Republicans leads by two. Good stuff.
