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  MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2
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Author Topic: MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2  (Read 1497 times)
Miles
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« on: September 25, 2014, 06:35:06 pm »
« edited: September 25, 2014, 06:39:07 pm by Miles »

Report.

Baker (R)- 40%
Coakley (D)- 38%
Others- 5%
Not sure- 18%
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Vega
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2014, 06:48:04 pm »

Will the accurate poll please stand up?
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2014, 06:54:49 pm »

Baker's chances are actually about to go downhill. He was having trouble securing the women vote for most of this campaign and has been trying to cover up for that through ads involving his wife and family, but Baker's new "sweetheart" gaffe practically just ensured Coakley another great chance not to blow this race.

If the Democrats lose this race it's on Coakley just being terrible and not necessarily that Baker's a good candidate, but I think she's still favored.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2014, 07:00:09 pm »

I don't like this poll because of the high undecideds; both candidates are obviously more well-known than this would suggest.

FWIW, I don't think the "sweetheart" gaffe was that bad.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2014, 09:25:40 pm »

Will the accurate poll please stand up?

October 2012 MassInc: Warren +6
October 2012 Boston Globe: Tie

Boston Globe also said that Tisei would win by 6 (he lost by 1), and that Obama would carry Massachusetts by 17 (he did by 23). They have a pretty consistent and heavy Republican bias.
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Flake
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2014, 10:38:55 pm »

It's a pretty consistent six point Republican bias then. So Coakley is leading by four right now.
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Roemerista
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2014, 08:41:12 am »

Rass and the Globe were pretty good in 2010 (a midterm) with screening LVs as opposed to 2008. They were only off (favoring the GOP) by 1-2 percentage points in the governor's race.

Still, I doubt Baker is ahead. And I feel uncomfortable with that many undecideds...against you know, known candidates.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2014, 06:50:08 pm »

Hilarious to see Democrats mock any poll that shows their candidate losing...

Go Charlie!
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2014, 09:57:00 pm »

Hilarious to see Democrats mock any poll that shows their candidate losing...

Go Charlie!

Oh really? I'd like to see you dispute their factual history. Have at it.

Will the accurate poll please stand up?

October 2012 MassInc: Warren +6
October 2012 Boston Globe: Tie

Boston Globe also said that Tisei would win by 6 (he lost by 1), and that Obama would carry Massachusetts by 17 (he did by 23). They have a pretty consistent and heavy Republican bias.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2014, 10:10:35 pm »

New Poll: Massachusetts Governor by Boston Globe on 2014-09-23

Summary: D: 38%, R: 40%, I: 5%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2014, 11:19:40 pm »

Hilarious to see Democrats mock any poll that shows their candidate losing...

Go Charlie!

Oh really? I'd like to see you dispute their factual history. Have at it.

Will the accurate poll please stand up?

October 2012 MassInc: Warren +6
October 2012 Boston Globe: Tie

Boston Globe also said that Tisei would win by 6 (he lost by 1), and that Obama would carry Massachusetts by 17 (he did by 23). They have a pretty consistent and heavy Republican bias.

Whats not to say MassInc has a Democratic bias?


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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2014, 11:25:07 pm »

MassInc actually got the margin closer, so it doesn't make sense to claim that polling had bias.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2014, 11:40:06 pm »

Hilarious to see Democrats mock any poll that shows their candidate losing...

Go Charlie!

Oh really? I'd like to see you dispute their factual history. Have at it.

Will the accurate poll please stand up?

October 2012 MassInc: Warren +6
October 2012 Boston Globe: Tie

Boston Globe also said that Tisei would win by 6 (he lost by 1), and that Obama would carry Massachusetts by 17 (he did by 23). They have a pretty consistent and heavy Republican bias.

Whats not to say MassInc has a Democratic bias?



Because of the fact that they were way closer to the actual result in both the 2012 Senate race and the 2012 presidential race. In fact, even MassInc understated Democratic support, saying Warren would win by 6 when she won by 8 and that Obama won win by 20 when he won by 23. But they were still far better than the Boston Globe which had a consistent 6-8 point Republican bias.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2014, 12:41:50 am »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 01:46:49 am by wormyguy »

You could alternatively look at other recent Globe polling:

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias

2010 Gubernatorial election:

Actual Nov. 2: Patrick 48 Baker 42 Cahill 8
Globe Oct. 17-22: Patrick 43 Baker 39 Cahill 8 - 4-point GOP bias, but it should be noted that the Globe never showed Baker leading or a tie

2010 MA-4:

Actual Nov. 2: Frank 54 Bielat 43
Globe Oct. 17-22: Frank 46 Bielat 33 - 2-point Dem bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point GOP bias

2010 Senate special election:

Actual Jan. 19: Brown 52 Coakley 47
Globe Jan. 2-6: Brown 36 Coakley 53 - 22-point(!) Dem bias
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2014, 12:53:48 am »

You could alternatively look at other recent Globe polling:

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias

2010 Gubernatorial election:

Actual Nov. 2: Patrick 48 Baker 42 Cahill 8
Globe Oct. 17-22: Patrick 43 Baker 39 Cahill 8 - 4-point GOP bias, but it should be noted that the Globe never showed Baker leading or a tie

2010 MA-4:

Actual Nov. 2: Frank 54 Bielat 43
Globe Oct. 17-22: Frank 46 Bielat 33 - 2-point Dem bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point Dem bias

2010 Senate special election:

Actual Jan. 19: Brown 52 Coakley 47
Globe Jan. 2-6: Brown 35 Coakley 50 - 20-point(!) Dem bias

You can't really count the last one considering Brown's surge was a last minute event, and Coakley did in fact have a huge lead at that time. As far as MassInc, I can't find any polls they did pre 2012, but they performed much better than the Globe in the only election cycle where they can be compared. Either way, I'm going to believe them considering their polls have been pretty consistent in showing a decent sized Coakley lead whereas the Globe has bounced all over the place this entire cycle for no reason (ex: going from Coakley +7 to Baker +1 in a single week when nothing notable happened in said week).
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2014, 01:22:51 am »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 01:37:28 am by wormyguy »

You could alternatively look at other recent Globe polling:

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias

2010 Gubernatorial election:

Actual Nov. 2: Patrick 48 Baker 42 Cahill 8
Globe Oct. 17-22: Patrick 43 Baker 39 Cahill 8 - 4-point GOP bias, but it should be noted that the Globe never showed Baker leading or a tie

2010 MA-4:

Actual Nov. 2: Frank 54 Bielat 43
Globe Oct. 17-22: Frank 46 Bielat 33 - 2-point Dem bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point Dem bias

2010 Senate special election:

Actual Jan. 19: Brown 52 Coakley 47
Globe Jan. 2-6: Brown 35 Coakley 50 - 20-point(!) Dem bias

You can't really count the last one considering Brown's surge was a last minute event, and Coakley did in fact have a huge lead at that time. As far as MassInc, I can't find any polls they did pre 2012, but they performed much better than the Globe in the only election cycle where they can be compared. Either way, I'm going to believe them considering their polls have been pretty consistent in showing a decent sized Coakley lead whereas the Globe has bounced all over the place this entire cycle for no reason (ex: going from Coakley +7 to Baker +1 in a single week when nothing notable happened in said week).

Two pollsters were in the field at approximately the same time in 2010; Rasmussen had Coakley up 50-41 in a poll conducted the night of Jan. 4 (14-point Dem bias), while their second and final poll on Jan. 11 had her up 49-47 (7-point Dem bias), PPP had Brown up 48-47 Jan. 7-9 (4-point Dem bias; the first poll to show Brown leading), and their final poll Jan. 16-17 had Brown up 51-46 (no bias). Besides the Jan. 11 Rasmussen, every poll conducted after the Globe one by orgs other than the proven-fraudulent Research 2000 showed a Brown lead. It's fair to say that the Globe poll was a very significant outlier (not least b/c the Coakley people were furiously pimping it even before the PPP was released; clearly their internals were scaring them).

As for MassINC, it appears in two of the elections I listed.

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias
MassINC June 6-9: Markey 43 Gomez 36 - 3-point GOP bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point GOP bias
MassINC Oct. 13-15: Keating 46 Perry 43 - 2-point GOP bias
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2014, 01:52:26 am »

Wikipedia was slightly off on the Globe Brown-Coakley poll, with leaners it was 53 Coakley, 36 Brown for a 22(!!!)-point Dem bias.
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