MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2 (user search)
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  MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MA: Boston Globe: Baker up 2  (Read 1839 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: September 25, 2014, 09:25:40 PM »

Will the accurate poll please stand up?

October 2012 MassInc: Warren +6
October 2012 Boston Globe: Tie

Boston Globe also said that Tisei would win by 6 (he lost by 1), and that Obama would carry Massachusetts by 17 (he did by 23). They have a pretty consistent and heavy Republican bias.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2014, 09:57:00 PM »

Hilarious to see Democrats mock any poll that shows their candidate losing...

Go Charlie!

Oh really? I'd like to see you dispute their factual history. Have at it.

Will the accurate poll please stand up?

October 2012 MassInc: Warren +6
October 2012 Boston Globe: Tie

Boston Globe also said that Tisei would win by 6 (he lost by 1), and that Obama would carry Massachusetts by 17 (he did by 23). They have a pretty consistent and heavy Republican bias.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2014, 11:40:06 PM »

Hilarious to see Democrats mock any poll that shows their candidate losing...

Go Charlie!

Oh really? I'd like to see you dispute their factual history. Have at it.

Will the accurate poll please stand up?

October 2012 MassInc: Warren +6
October 2012 Boston Globe: Tie

Boston Globe also said that Tisei would win by 6 (he lost by 1), and that Obama would carry Massachusetts by 17 (he did by 23). They have a pretty consistent and heavy Republican bias.

Whats not to say MassInc has a Democratic bias?



Because of the fact that they were way closer to the actual result in both the 2012 Senate race and the 2012 presidential race. In fact, even MassInc understated Democratic support, saying Warren would win by 6 when she won by 8 and that Obama won win by 20 when he won by 23. But they were still far better than the Boston Globe which had a consistent 6-8 point Republican bias.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2014, 12:53:48 AM »

You could alternatively look at other recent Globe polling:

2013 Senate special election:

Actual June 25: Markey 55 Gomez 45
Globe June 11-14: Markey 54 Gomez 41 - 3-point Dem bias

2010 Gubernatorial election:

Actual Nov. 2: Patrick 48 Baker 42 Cahill 8
Globe Oct. 17-22: Patrick 43 Baker 39 Cahill 8 - 4-point GOP bias, but it should be noted that the Globe never showed Baker leading or a tie

2010 MA-4:

Actual Nov. 2: Frank 54 Bielat 43
Globe Oct. 17-22: Frank 46 Bielat 33 - 2-point Dem bias

2010 MA-10:

Actual Nov. 2: Keating 47 Perry 42
Globe Oct. 17-22: Keating 37 Perry 33 - 1-point Dem bias

2010 Senate special election:

Actual Jan. 19: Brown 52 Coakley 47
Globe Jan. 2-6: Brown 35 Coakley 50 - 20-point(!) Dem bias

You can't really count the last one considering Brown's surge was a last minute event, and Coakley did in fact have a huge lead at that time. As far as MassInc, I can't find any polls they did pre 2012, but they performed much better than the Globe in the only election cycle where they can be compared. Either way, I'm going to believe them considering their polls have been pretty consistent in showing a decent sized Coakley lead whereas the Globe has bounced all over the place this entire cycle for no reason (ex: going from Coakley +7 to Baker +1 in a single week when nothing notable happened in said week).
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