VA: PPP confirms Warner under 50%

[IceSpear]

It's over. Any incumbent below 50 will lose.

(Unless you're Mitch McConnell, then it's likely R)

[IceSpear]

This was always going to be a Lean-D race.  There is no doubt that Sen. Mark Warner will win re-election, of course, just not by the wildly optimistic numbers some insisted he'd have. A margin at or around twenty points for the D makes sense in Maryland perhaps, but not in Virginia.  

Of course "lean D" means something different to everyone, but even if you average this and Quinnipiac, Warner is still up double digits.