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  IA: Selzer & Co.: Ernst up, outside MoE
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Author Topic: IA: Selzer & Co.: Ernst up, outside MoE  (Read 4788 times)
Miles
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« on: September 27, 2014, 07:02:05 pm »
« edited: September 27, 2014, 07:04:46 pm by Miles »

Article.

Ernst (R)- 44%
Braley (D)- 38%
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2014, 07:05:58 pm »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 07:08:41 pm by RogueBeaver »

Braley's tied in his own district. Both are polarizing figures, dead even on favourability.
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backtored
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2014, 07:07:35 pm »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 07:17:06 pm by backtored »

Surf's up, dudes.

Right where Quinnipiac had it.  
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2014, 07:09:49 pm »

Surf's up, dudes.

Right where Quinnipiac had it.  Everybody say hi to Senators-elect Ernst and Gardner

...and Sullivan and the rest of them...

...and Tillis?

Don't count your chickens. And Tillis isn't even up in the polls right now....
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2014, 07:15:22 pm »

Some crosstabs: Ernst up 55/30 with men, Braley 46/33 with women. Ernst winning indies apparently.
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backtored
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2014, 07:17:36 pm »

Surf's up, dudes.

Right where Quinnipiac had it.  Everybody say hi to Senators-elect Ernst and Gardner

...and Sullivan and the rest of them...

...and Tillis?

Don't count your chickens. And Tillis isn't even up in the polls right now....


You're right.  I got a little carried away.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2014, 07:20:15 pm »

Harry Enten: "No pollster is perfect & a wise consumer looks at all data, but the river is lined with bodies of those who thought Selzer was out to lunch."
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2014, 08:12:30 pm »

Jailer Joni is getting ready to stop Badmouth-Grassley Braley from getting a seat in the Senate. Tongue (Bad knockoff of Checkpoint Charlie, I know....)

Anyways, I think that Democrats have been surprisingly soft on Ernst.  The attacks on Ernst basically are the "Generic R" attacks (privatize social security, bad for seniors, etc.), not as harsh as those on Cory Gardner.  I think Ernst's gender has been a big asset to her.  If she had said some of the same stuff as a male Republican, she would have been more like a Ken Buck.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2014, 08:33:31 pm »

Castrate the hog!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2014, 09:14:47 pm »

RIP Braley. Looks like this one's over. Sad
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Panda Express
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2014, 09:20:15 pm »

This sucks. Isn't this the gold standard in Iowa?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2014, 09:22:48 pm »

Jailer Joni is getting ready to stop Badmouth-Grassley Braley from getting a seat in the Senate. Tongue (Bad knockoff of Checkpoint Charlie, I know....)

Anyways, I think that Democrats have been surprisingly soft on Ernst.  The attacks on Ernst basically are the "Generic R" attacks (privatize social security, bad for seniors, etc.), not as harsh as those on Cory Gardner.  I think Ernst's gender has been a big asset to her.  If she had said some of the same stuff as a male Republican, she would have been more like a Ken Buck.

It's not just that. Joni Ernst has launched the charm offensive in Iowa. To her credit, that's a great strategy, especially when that is such a stark contrast with the image Braley has painted of himself, a wealthy elitist who will do anything to get elected. And the guy just can't stop saying stuff that gets him in trouble. He's the Democrats Mitt Romney!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2014, 09:24:10 pm »

Braley is only down six, yet trails with rural voters by 43% in what is a state with a sizable rural population. No matter how great Ernst supposedly is (she really isn't great), she's not going to win rural voters by that much. There is still plenty of room for Braley to win, it's not like he's going to only get 15% of rural voters, I don't think Democrats do that poorly among rural voters even in next door Nebraska.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2014, 09:35:00 pm »

Braley should have nuked Ernst in July, August, September for being an insane lady, like Reid did with Angle. Dumb midwestern cow-loving coward f[inks]ed this up.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2014, 09:39:24 pm »

My reaction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD_imYhNoQ4
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SWE
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2014, 09:41:07 pm »

lol braley's that terrible of a candidate
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2014, 09:53:43 pm »


You had some kind of epileptic seizure?
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2014, 09:54:06 pm »

Braley is only down six, yet trails with rural voters by 43% in what is a state with a sizable rural population. No matter how great Ernst supposedly is (she really isn't great), she's not going to win rural voters by that much. There is still plenty of room for Braley to win, it's not like he's going to only get 15% of rural voters, I don't think Democrats do that poorly among rural voters even in next door Nebraska.

I'm sure the MoE on a small subgroup like rural voters is pretty large.  Anyone can pick a strange result in a crosstab subgroup in a poll to try to discredit it.  Therefore, every poll is suspect if you don't want to believe it.  Of course, that doesn't change the fact that this poll was conducted by what traditionally has been the gold standard of Iowa pollsters, which 538 rated an A+.

That being said, why should rural voters back the guy who denigrated Senator Grassley for being a farmer?  Braley doesn't seem to be in touch with rural issues or voters.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2014, 10:01:42 pm »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 11:13:05 pm by Invisible Obama »

Braley is only down six, yet trails with rural voters by 43% in what is a state with a sizable rural population. No matter how great Ernst supposedly is (she really isn't great), she's not going to win rural voters by that much. There is still plenty of room for Braley to win, it's not like he's going to only get 15% of rural voters, I don't think Democrats do that poorly among rural voters even in next door Nebraska.

I'm sure the MoE on a small subgroup like rural voters is pretty large.  Anyone can pick a strange result in a crosstab subgroup in a poll to try to discredit it.  Therefore, every poll is suspect if you don't want to believe it.  Of course, that doesn't change the fact that this poll was conducted by what traditionally has been the gold standard of Iowa pollsters, which 538 rated an A+.

That being said, why should rural voters back the guy who denigrated Senator Grassley for being a farmer?  Braley doesn't seem to be in touch with rural issues or voters.

Look, I am not saying the poll is wrong. I'm saying that Braley has plenty of room to grow from here, that is all.
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Flake
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2014, 10:03:44 pm »

I guess Republicans are gonna win the Senate at this point Sad
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DINO Tom
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2014, 10:14:59 pm »

RIP Braley. Looks like this one's over. Sad
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backtored
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2014, 10:45:16 pm »

PPP tweeted that their polling in Iowa this weekend shows Ernst "definitely ahead."

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2014, 10:51:08 pm »

Someone get me an address. Need to send the good Congressman a Christmas card this year.
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Never
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« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2014, 11:12:07 pm »

Great news from a great polling company! Smiley It seems like the results of this poll reflect that while Ernst is pretty far to the right for Iowa, she has been a vastly more capable candidate than Braley.
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2014, 11:30:53 pm »
« Edited: September 27, 2014, 11:58:51 pm by Harry »

Looks like Mississippi isn't going to be America's #1 punchline state much longer. Hooray!
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