IA: Selzer & Co.: Ernst up, outside MoE

[DrScholl]

Surf's up, dudes.

Right where Quinnipiac had it.  Everybody say hi to Senators-elect Ernst and Gardner

...and Sullivan and the rest of them...

...and Tillis?

Don't count your chickens. And Tillis isn't even up in the polls right now....

[DrScholl]

Braley is only down six, yet trails with rural voters by 43% in what is a state with a sizable rural population. No matter how great Ernst supposedly is (she really isn't great), she's not going to win rural voters by that much. There is still plenty of room for Braley to win, it's not like he's going to only get 15% of rural voters, I don't think Democrats do that poorly among rural voters even in next door Nebraska.

[DrScholl]

Braley is only down six, yet trails with rural voters by 43% in what is a state with a sizable rural population. No matter how great Ernst supposedly is (she really isn't great), she's not going to win rural voters by that much. There is still plenty of room for Braley to win, it's not like he's going to only get 15% of rural voters, I don't think Democrats do that poorly among rural voters even in next door Nebraska.

I'm sure the MoE on a small subgroup like rural voters is pretty large.  Anyone can pick a strange result in a crosstab subgroup in a poll to try to discredit it.  Therefore, every poll is suspect if you don't want to believe it.  Of course, that doesn't change the fact that this poll was conducted by what traditionally has been the gold standard of Iowa pollsters, which 538 rated an A+.

That being said, why should rural voters back the guy who denigrated Senator Grassley for being a farmer?  Braley doesn't seem to be in touch with rural issues or voters.

Look, I am not saying the poll is wrong. I'm saying that Braley has plenty of room to grow from here, that is all.

[DrScholl]

At R+4, I wouldn't consider that poll to be faked or weighed to give an overly favorable result. If Ernst is only tied on an R+4 sample, then this race is clearly not over.