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  MD: Race Tightening with Brown Holding Narrow Lead Over Hogan
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Author Topic: MD: Race Tightening with Brown Holding Narrow Lead Over Hogan  (Read 1935 times)
Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« on: October 01, 2014, 07:10:31 pm »

Brown holds narrow lead over Hogan in Md. governorís race, poll says

By John Wagner and Scott Clement
October 1 at 3:25 PM


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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2014, 07:15:07 pm »

Brown will win easily.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2014, 07:20:00 pm »

I can see Hogan at 43, but it would be very difficult for him to get much higher.

Brown has run a weak campaign, so I think Hogan has a shot at keeping it in the high single digits.

Though I will say, the DGA has made a few buys here, so I am curious to see what Brown's internals show.
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Vega
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2014, 07:24:59 pm »

There's been like 3 polls on this race.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2014, 07:26:28 pm »

I have a lot of politically active FB friends from Maryland through a political org, and many are pseudo-Zionists that have been touting this as an up-for-grabs race. Certainly never believed them until now though I still view Brown as easily favored. Just a little bit safer than Fallin in OK.

If a guy like Ehrlich couldn't pull it out in a year like 2010 (even against a candidate like O'Malley), I don't know how Hogan will do it in 2014.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2014, 07:31:49 pm »

There's been like 3 polls on this race.

Is that so?  Anything recent?  I have gone through the past five pages on this board, and so far nothing on Maryland was ever posted. 
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2014, 07:35:58 pm »

There's been like 3 polls on this race.

Is that so?  Anything recent?  I have gone through the past five pages on this board, and so far nothing on Maryland was ever posted. 

Looking on Wikipedia, the closest was an internal a month ago 45-42. Other than that everything has been 13-14 points since June.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2014, 07:36:35 pm »
« Edited: October 01, 2014, 07:48:02 pm by IDS Emperor Maxwell »

Larry Hogan isn't the right candidate to actually win (David Craig could've), but I wouldn't be surprised if Brown is held to a single digit margin.

For reference - Gonzales had O'Malley within the margin of error of Ehrlich in July. Then again, so did PPP. Ehrlich's campaign had its own little scandal, so I think the margin being this close this far means this race is very likely Democratic, but I don't think it's completely off the table.

I suspect, however, Democrats come home and Brown wins convincingly.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2014, 07:41:03 pm »

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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2014, 08:05:21 pm »

There has been one (I repeat, one) poll of this race that isn't rassy, yougov or a (quasi-)internal. This is Likely D based on fundamentals, but I'd really like to see more reliable polling.
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KCDem
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2014, 08:11:35 pm »

I have a lot of politically active FB friends from Maryland through a political org, and many are pseudo-Zionists that have been touting this as an up-for-grabs race. Certainly never believed them until now though I still view Brown as easily favored. Just a little bit safer than Fallin in OK.

If a guy like Ehrlich couldn't pull it out in a year like 2010 (even against a candidate like O'Malley), I don't know how Hogan will do it in 2014.

Relying on Facebook friends to get a feel for a race is....how shall I say, not useful.

Anyway, Brown will win easily and Larry Hogan will be sent back to whatever dark lair he came from.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2014, 06:25:21 pm »

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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2014, 06:29:19 pm »

So you guys aren't going to say anything useful? good to note.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2014, 06:48:32 pm »

So you guys aren't going to say anything useful? good to note.

Stating the fact that Brown will win easily sounds like pretty useful knowledge to me. Wink
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Joshua
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2014, 07:13:18 pm »

Nobody knows what's going on here or Arizona.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2014, 07:40:57 pm »

So you guys aren't going to say anything useful? good to note.

I rarely empty quote but there really isn't much else that needs to be said here.
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Kevin
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2014, 09:09:56 pm »

So you guys aren't going to say anything useful? good to note.
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KCDem
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2014, 09:11:14 pm »

RIP Brown
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Clarko95
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2014, 09:14:45 pm »

How is O'Malley viewed in the state? I'm not familiar with Maryland politics.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2014, 09:23:12 pm »


Okay fine, you guys win. This race is clearly ultracompetitive and possibly tilt R. Hogan will deliver Brown a good thrashing.

#Hoganmentum
#Brownunder50
#GOPwave
#2010redux
#EvenMarylandHatesDemoncrats

(Seriously though, Republicans hoping this race is competitive are as bad as the Democrats who thought Oklahoma was winnable based off a single Rasmussen poll.)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2014, 09:31:05 pm »

I think this is an outlier. How is a republican getting 43% of the vote in MD in the first place? Its basically impossible for a R to get elected there. I would be shocked if he came within 10 points.
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DINO Tom
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2014, 09:36:54 pm »

Brown will win, but it'll be a single digit race.  This is like our version of Oklahoma, methinks.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2014, 09:40:18 pm »

I think this is an outlier. How is a republican getting 43% of the vote in MD in the first place? Its basically impossible for a R to get elected there. I would be shocked if he came within 10 points.

I'll wait for a poll from an accurate source before I go on and call this an outlier.
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henster
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2014, 11:35:35 pm »

The math doesn't work for Republicans in MD there's just no way they can get to 50%. Brown will win massively in PG county and Baltimore along with Montgomery. He'll probably lose Howard and Baltimore county though.
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