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Author Topic: CO: Rasmussen: Hick takes lead  (Read 4419 times)
Miles
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« on: October 02, 2014, 10:13:56 am »

Link coming.

Hickenlooper (D)- 50%
Beauprez (R)- 46%
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Panda Express
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2014, 10:46:13 am »

Hick's got this
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2014, 10:51:20 am »

How is this race and the Senate race so close? I thought Colorado was a blue state FFS!
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2014, 11:02:30 am »

I suspect a repeat of 2010. If Hickenlooper wins, so does Udall.
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Joshua
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2014, 01:10:23 pm »

Oh thank god.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2014, 01:42:44 pm »

Rassy is now accurate since I like the results
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2014, 01:45:09 pm »

I want to see more to confirm if Hick has started to turn this around, but I have to say, this looks more like what I imagined with Bob Beauprez - someone who could lose by a non-embarrassing amount, but not ever win. I feel like Gardner is going to do better than Beauprez.
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Joshua
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2014, 02:42:17 pm »

Rassy is now accurate since I like the results

You say this on every Rassmussen thread. Dems rejoice when Dems are ahead in Rassy polls because they are historically known to be generous to Republicans. Even if it isn't explicitly stated, it is universally accepted that >Rassy applies to every one of their polls.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2014, 02:49:22 pm »

Rassy is now accurate since I like the results

You say this on every Rassmussen thread. Dems rejoice when Dems are ahead in Rassy polls because they are historically known to be generous to Republicans. Even if it isn't explicitly stated, it is universally accepted that >Rassy applies to every one of their polls.

So by that logic it is accurate when it shows a Dem lead? I'm genuinely, non-sarcastically curious.
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Joshua
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2014, 02:55:31 pm »

Rassy is now accurate since I like the results

You say this on every Rassmussen thread. Dems rejoice when Dems are ahead in Rassy polls because they are historically known to be generous to Republicans. Even if it isn't explicitly stated, it is universally accepted that >Rassy applies to every one of their polls.

So by that logic it is accurate when it shows a Dem lead? I'm genuinely, non-sarcastically curious.

Rassmussen is a consistent pollster. They have been shown to give an edge to Republicans of about 1 to 3 points in every poll (see 538 analysis, or every poll vs actual result ever). So if Hick is ahead four in this Rassy poll, he's likely ahead by more.

If it gives a Republican a five point lead, the same applies. The race is just a bit tighter than Rassmussen thinks, but the Republican would have an advantage in the race.

[Edit]: Although I'll give you that we have yet to know exactly what Rassy's bias is this cycle, it seems to be a bit better than the past.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2014, 02:58:39 pm by Joshua »Logged
Snek!
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2014, 03:02:29 pm »

Incumbent at 50 because BWB thinks having an IUD is like having an abortion every time you have sex with it. This is a sign of a mentally healthy state.
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Vega
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2014, 03:13:21 pm »

Not buying it. Why the sudden reversal?
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Snek!
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2014, 03:21:21 pm »

Not buying it. Why the sudden reversal?

Like I said, it could have been the debate. Or it could be because of the late hour push by Democrats on the airwaves.
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SPC
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2014, 03:49:33 pm »

Rassy is now accurate since I like the results

You say this on every Rassmussen thread. Dems rejoice when Dems are ahead in Rassy polls because they are historically known to be generous to Republicans. Even if it isn't explicitly stated, it is universally accepted that >Rassy applies to every one of their polls.

So by that logic it is accurate when it shows a Dem lead? I'm genuinely, non-sarcastically curious.

Rassmussen is a consistent pollster. They have been shown to give an edge to Republicans of about 1 to 3 points in every poll (see 538 analysis, or every poll vs actual result ever). So if Hick is ahead four in this Rassy poll, he's likely ahead by more.

If it gives a Republican a five point lead, the same applies. The race is just a bit tighter than Rassmussen thinks, but the Republican would have an advantage in the race.

[Edit]: Although I'll give you that we have yet to know exactly what Rassy's bias is this cycle, it seems to be a bit better than the past.

The problem with this is 538 has shown that Rassy is imprecise as well as inaccurate (they missed the average result by 6 points in 2010)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2014, 03:52:15 pm »

Though he's endangered, I think Hickenlooper will make it out of this alive. He probably has a better chance of winning than Udall.
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backtored
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2014, 03:55:56 pm »

Not buying it. Why the sudden reversal?

Me either, but it is interesting to watch liberals so jubilant about a Rasmussen poll. I suspect we will get another pollster soon with Beauprez leading. It is a very tight race.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2014, 04:12:53 pm »

Rassy is now accurate since I like the results

You say this on every Rassmussen thread. Dems rejoice when Dems are ahead in Rassy polls because they are historically known to be generous to Republicans. Even if it isn't explicitly stated, it is universally accepted that >Rassy applies to every one of their polls.

So by that logic it is accurate when it shows a Dem lead? I'm genuinely, non-sarcastically curious.

Imagine PPP showing a Republican lead in these races. You would think that means more since it is coming from a firm that, if anything, is biased for the Democrats.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2014, 06:18:58 pm »

Looks like Beauprez got his "Say Yes to the Dress" bump. It seems to have been worth about -14 points.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2014, 07:40:56 pm »

I have a hard time believing Hick is ahead while Udall is behind when Hick (as Governor) is the one that passed all the "ultra-liberal" reforms that supposedly have so many Coloradans up in arms. Either this poll is off (completely possible) or the Udall polls showing Gardner are off (likely).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2014, 07:43:04 pm »

I have a hard time believing Hick is ahead while Udall is behind when Hick (as Governor) is the one that passed all the "ultra-liberal" reforms that supposedly have so many Coloradans up in arms. Either this poll is off (completely possible) or the Udall polls showing Gardner are off (likely).

All the polls seem contradictory on whether Hickenlooper or Udall is doing better. This leads me to believe that either both will win or both will lose.
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backtored
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2014, 08:19:28 pm »

Rassy shows Obama's approval in Colorado at 47%.  I don't know quite what that says about the sample, but I know that Obama's approval isn't any higher than 40% in Colorado.  In fact, it is probably even lower than that. 

I generally don't dismiss non-partisan polls, though, and I won't dismiss this one.  I'll just note that this seems like a pretty weird poll and I definitely want to see SUSA/PPP/Quinnipiac.  Hopefully Fox News and CNN will come in with something soon, too.

Either way, this poll looks really good for Gardner, even if it isn't so great for Beauprez.
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KCDem
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2014, 09:06:48 pm »

Rassy shows Obama's approval in Colorado at 47%.  I don't know quite what that says about the sample, but I know that Obama's approval isn't any higher than 40% in Colorado.  In fact, it is probably even lower than that. 

I generally don't dismiss non-partisan polls, though, and I won't dismiss this one.  I'll just note that this seems like a pretty weird poll and I definitely want to see SUSA/PPP/Quinnipiac.  Hopefully Fox News and CNN will come in with something soon, too.

Either way, this poll looks really good for Gardner, even if it isn't so great for Beauprez.

How do you know this?

Anyway, RIP Beauprez

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henster
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2014, 11:37:07 pm »

Hick has been running ads where a couple of months ago he wasn't that probably explains the shift.
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2014, 12:10:49 am »

I think it will be a Hickenlooper win and a Gardner win.
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2014, 06:16:07 am »

Rassy shows Obama's approval in Colorado at 47%.  I don't know quite what that says about the sample, but I know that Obama's approval isn't any higher than 40% in Colorado.  In fact, it is probably even lower than that. 

I generally don't dismiss non-partisan polls, though, and I won't dismiss this one.  I'll just note that this seems like a pretty weird poll and I definitely want to see SUSA/PPP/Quinnipiac.  Hopefully Fox News and CNN will come in with something soon, too.

Either way, this poll looks really good for Gardner, even if it isn't so great for Beauprez.

How do you know this?

Anyway, RIP Beauprez


Hate to say it, but I agree with KCDem. You saying that you "know" Obama's approval isn't higher than 40% because of anecdotal evidence isn't a replacement for an actual poll (though in this case, lolras does apply).
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