IL-12/13: WAA: Republicans leading

[Miles]

Article.

CD12
Bost (R)- 45%
Enyart (D)- 40%

CD13
Davis (R)- 51%
Callis (D)- 38%

[Mr. Illini]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

[krazen1211]

Mr. Bost is poised to break the vicious gerrymander.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

In Illinois, WAA is a faux-indie firm. Toss it.

[Franzl]

This would truly be tragic.

[DrScholl]

Bost is too violent to get elected to anything other than very strong Republican district. And lest we forget, We Ask America way overstated Republican candidates in 2012.

[muon2]

Bost is too violent to get elected to anything other than very strong Republican district. And lest we forget, We Ask America way overstated Republican candidates in 2012.

Bost originally won in a swing district by taking it from a Dem. He was targeted a couple times after that before the Dems decided he was too hard to beat in southern IL. BTW are you basing the violence claim on the famous video. I can tell you how that was staged if you like. Former Moderate was at the IL Capitol that day and he can lend his view, too.

[DrScholl]

Bost is too violent to get elected to anything other than very strong Republican district. And lest we forget, We Ask America way overstated Republican candidates in 2012.

Bost originally won in a swing district by taking it from a Dem. He was targeted a couple times after that before the Dems decided he was too hard to beat in southern IL. BTW are you basing the violence claim on the famous video. I can tell you how that was staged if you like. Former Moderate was at the IL Capitol that day and he can lend his view, too.

That video looked real to me, but I'm interested in your theory how it was staged. He was first elected in 1994, so I'd wager the definition of swing in his part of Southern Illinois has changed since then.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Davis has IL-13, but I doubt Enyart is really losing.

[muon2]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

I subscribe to the web site that commissioned the polls. If there are particular cross tabs, I can check them, but I think it would be inappropriate for me to post them to the general public.

BTW, yesterday that same site released polls from IL-10 and IL-11. Here are the top lines:

IL-10 (919 LV) Schneider (D-inc) 46, Dold (R) 44, undecided 9.
IL-11 (918 LV) Foster (D-inc) 47, Senger (R) 43, undecided 10.

[Miles]

Looks like Davis has IL-13, but I doubt Enyart is really losing.

This.

In 2012, was overestimating the GOP in most IL districts because its seemed like every poll was from WAA.

[Mr. Illini]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

I subscribe to the web site that commissioned the polls. If there are particular cross tabs, I can check them, but I think it would be inappropriate for me to post them to the general public.

BTW, yesterday that same site released polls from IL-10 and IL-11. Here are the top lines:

IL-10 (919 LV) Schneider (D-inc) 46, Dold (R) 44, undecided 9.
IL-11 (918 LV) Foster (D-inc) 47, Senger (R) 43, undecided 10.

Bull crap that Bost leads by more than Foster does.

[muon2]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

I subscribe to the web site that commissioned the polls. If there are particular cross tabs, I can check them, but I think it would be inappropriate for me to post them to the general public.

BTW, yesterday that same site released polls from IL-10 and IL-11. Here are the top lines:

IL-10 (919 LV) Schneider (D-inc) 46, Dold (R) 44, undecided 9.
IL-11 (918 LV) Foster (D-inc) 47, Senger (R) 43, undecided 10.

Bull crap that Bost leads by more than Foster does.

The poll respondents are probably being pulled by the gov race which has Rauner up 48-39 in IL-11. That's not a crazy number in a suburban area that has been swinging 10 points between Pres and off years, though it's a bit larger than I would expect.. Joliet and Aurora have notoriously low turnout in off year elections and a likely voter screen will lop a lot of people out of the poll from those areas.

[Mr. Illini]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

I subscribe to the web site that commissioned the polls. If there are particular cross tabs, I can check them, but I think it would be inappropriate for me to post them to the general public.

BTW, yesterday that same site released polls from IL-10 and IL-11. Here are the top lines:

IL-10 (919 LV) Schneider (D-inc) 46, Dold (R) 44, undecided 9.
IL-11 (918 LV) Foster (D-inc) 47, Senger (R) 43, undecided 10.

Bull crap that Bost leads by more than Foster does.

The poll respondents are probably being pulled by the gov race which has Rauner up 48-39 in IL-11. That's not a crazy number in a suburban area that has been swinging 10 points between Pres and off years, though it's a bit larger than I would expect.. Joliet and Aurora have notoriously low turnout in off year elections and a likely voter screen will lop a lot of people out of the poll from those areas.

And so you do expect Bost to win by more than Foster does?

[IceSpear]

Didn't WAA say Joe Walsh was ahead in 2012?

[muon2]

Wish we could see the cross tabs. I don't trust WAA without them.

Also, I am wondering how this factors in the student vote. They make up a big piece of the Dem vote in IL-13 (both ISU and UIUC are in the district), but most have phones that would likely be traced to their home districts.

At the end of the day, if Dems want a shot they will really have to get Champaign, McLean, St. Clair, and Madison counties to vote this year.

I subscribe to the web site that commissioned the polls. If there are particular cross tabs, I can check them, but I think it would be inappropriate for me to post them to the general public.

BTW, yesterday that same site released polls from IL-10 and IL-11. Here are the top lines:

IL-10 (919 LV) Schneider (D-inc) 46, Dold (R) 44, undecided 9.
IL-11 (918 LV) Foster (D-inc) 47, Senger (R) 43, undecided 10.

Bull crap that Bost leads by more than Foster does.

The poll respondents are probably being pulled by the gov race which has Rauner up 48-39 in IL-11. That's not a crazy number in a suburban area that has been swinging 10 points between Pres and off years, though it's a bit larger than I would expect.. Joliet and Aurora have notoriously low turnout in off year elections and a likely voter screen will lop a lot of people out of the poll from those areas.

And so you do expect Bost to win by more than Foster does?

I think that will depend in part on how well the Quinn GOTV works since it will impact Cong and other downballot races.

In 2010 the Dem GOTV was focused on Cook and that allowed the Pubs take so many Cong seats outside of Cook. This year the Dem plan is to use the ballot initiatives for their GOTV, and they have their apparatus in Cook as in the last gov cycle. I don't know how much they have built up their GOTV outside of Cook, but I'm close to IL-11 and I don't see as much ground game there as in areas closer to the city.

[KCDem]

WAA is junk. Moving along.

[Torie]

Muon2 is seeming to suggest that the Obama factor is making past voting results in these CD's usually unreliable, now that the bloom is off the Obama rose, even in Illinois, outside Chicago anyway, and in particular during off year elections. He is also seeming to suggest that suburban Chicago has an unusual number of swing voters in this polarized national environment, where swing voters are so thin on the ground in general out there on the Fruited Plain, at least compared to what Obama generated down ballot during his heyday outside Chicago, vis a vis now. Do I have this "interpretation" and elaboration of what you posted remotely accurate Muon2?

If my interpretation of what Muon2 said is at least somewhat right, and there is at least a discernible swing to the Pubs vis a vis the last cycle, to the surprise of most, then Illinois has the potential of turning into a Dem bloodbath relatively speaking. In short, Illinois will have a more robust "trend" vis a vis national numbers, to the Pubs this election cycle.

[muon2]

Muon2 is seeming to suggest that the Obama factor is making past voting results in these CD's usually unreliable, now that the bloom is off the Obama rose, even in Illinois, outside Chicago anyway, and in particular during off year elections. He is also seeming to suggest that suburban Chicago has an unusual number of swing voters in this polarized national environment, where swing voters are so thin on the ground in general out there on the Fruited Plain, at least compared to what Obama generated down ballot during his heyday outside Chicago, vis a vis now. Do I have this "interpretation" and elaboration of what you posted remotely accurate Muon2?

If my interpretation of what Muon2 said is at least somewhat right, and there is at least a discernible swing to the Pubs vis a vis the last cycle, to the surprise of most, then Illinois has the potential of turning into a Dem bloodbath relatively speaking. In short, Illinois will have a more robust "trend" vis a vis national numbers, to the Pubs this election cycle.

The swing back began in 2010, and continued through 2012. However as long as 2008 is averaged into calculations there will be some distortion, and the DCC relied on 2012 repeating 2008 in IL when they designed the CDs.

Perhaps as an illustration consider this exercise I did for Antonio V. He has looking for a 6 CD split of Downstate, and I created this plan. Note the level of swing to go from 6 Obama wins in 2008 to 6 losses by 2012.

Here's a cute gerrymander of your lopped-off IllinoiS. I divided it into 6 CDs using whole counties and keeping all 6 CDs within 1500 (0.2%) of the quota. I assumed that the Pubs had control after 2010, but they were willing to take some risks to make a play for all 6 seats. So all 6 CDs here voted for Obama over McCain, but Obama never gets over 52% (53% of the two-party vote) and all have a R PVI.

When I calculated the 2012 results, the gamble worked. In 2012 the favorite son effect wears off, so in the first election with this map Romney wins all 6 CDs with at least 52% of the two-party vote. The PVIs are calculated with the 2008-12 numbers.



IS-01:R+3 (Blue, Rockford-LaSalle)
IS-02:R+3 (Green, Rock Island-Bloomington)
IS-03:R+3 (Purple, Peoria-Quincy)
IS-04:R+6 (Red, Champaign-Decatur)
IS-05:R+5 (Yellow, Springfield-Edwardsville)
IS-06:R+5 (Teal, Belleville-Carbondale)

The Dems gambled in the south by splitting Metro East St Louis. They needed to added population to IL-12, and there were some natural areas to add in Madison and Macoupin county. However, they needed those areas to have a play for their new IL-13. That stripped IL-12 down to a D+2 as created with the assumption that Costello wasn't retiring, and was down to a D+0 after 2012.