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Author Topic: KS: Gravis: Orman +7  (Read 3008 times)
Miles
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« on: October 03, 2014, 01:02:04 pm »

Article.

Orman (I)- 47%
Roberts (R)- 40%
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2014, 01:09:39 pm »

Lean I.
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backtored
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2014, 01:26:05 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2014, 01:27:54 pm »

Orman will win and the DNC needs to take note. Democrat is the bad word in the Plains and South, not the policies of the Democratic Party. If Davis were independent like Orman, he'd be up 15 on Brownback.

Republican is also a bad word, but not as severely. An "Independent" might have beaten Cochran and Rounds as well if there were no Democrats involved.

If I'm head of the DSCC for 2016, I'm putting no Democrat on the ballot in 2016 against Shelby, Murkowski, Boozman, Moran, Hoeven, Thune, and Lee. Instead, I put out a feeler for the most Democratic friendly Independent I can find, tell innocuous PACs to support them, and just step back and see what happens.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2014, 01:29:26 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2014, 01:29:37 pm »

As expected, Domimating.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2014, 01:30:36 pm »

Orman will win and the DNC needs to take note. Democrat is the bad word in the Plains and South, not the policies of the Democratic Party. If Davis were independent like Orman, he'd be up 15 on Brownback.

Republican is also a bad word, but not as severely. An "Independent" might have beaten Cochran and Rounds as well if there were no Democrats involved.

If I'm head of the DSCC for 2016, I'm putting no Democrat on the ballot in 2016 against Shelby, Murkowski, Boozman, Moran, Hoeven, Thune, and Lee. Instead, I put out a feeler for the most Democratic friendly Independent I can find, tell innocuous PACs to support them, and just step back and see what happens.

I hope Mike Beebe potentially running would be an exception to that. Tongue
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2014, 01:30:43 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.
Yeah Democrats are favored in one of those (NC) and the other three are toss-ups.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2014, 01:31:38 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.
Are people really betting on a 50/50 proposition like that? Even if Orman is a Republican, he won't be a Conservative Republican and he might change caucuses with whomever is in charge again.

Orman will win and the DNC needs to take note. Democrat is the bad word in the Plains and South, not the policies of the Democratic Party. If Davis were independent like Orman, he'd be up 15 on Brownback.

Republican is also a bad word, but not as severely. An "Independent" might have beaten Cochran and Rounds as well if there were no Democrats involved.

If I'm head of the DSCC for 2016, I'm putting no Democrat on the ballot in 2016 against Shelby, Murkowski, Boozman, Moran, Hoeven, Thune, and Lee. Instead, I put out a feeler for the most Democratic friendly Independent I can find, tell innocuous PACs to support them, and just step back and see what happens.

People want a third party, right?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2014, 02:47:37 pm »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Gravis Marketing on 2014-10-01

Summary: D: 0%, R: 40%, I: 47%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2014, 03:56:11 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.
Are people really betting on a 50/50 proposition like that? Even if Orman is a Republican, he won't be a Conservative Republican and he might change caucuses with whomever is in charge again.

Orman will win and the DNC needs to take note. Democrat is the bad word in the Plains and South, not the policies of the Democratic Party. If Davis were independent like Orman, he'd be up 15 on Brownback.

Republican is also a bad word, but not as severely. An "Independent" might have beaten Cochran and Rounds as well if there were no Democrats involved.

If I'm head of the DSCC for 2016, I'm putting no Democrat on the ballot in 2016 against Shelby, Murkowski, Boozman, Moran, Hoeven, Thune, and Lee. Instead, I put out a feeler for the most Democratic friendly Independent I can find, tell innocuous PACs to support them, and just step back and see what happens.

People want a third party, right?

Be careful what you wish for.  I could see this strategy electing senators who caucus with the GOP in any of the New England states.  There are more solid R states that D's presently forfeit than solid D states that R's presently forfeit, though so if it goes national it would probably benefit Democrats on net. 

Also if we imagine that 5-10+ independents got elected on a "caucus with the clear majority" platform, it would effectively abolish the filibuster because the winning side would always have 60 senators.  That could be the best part of this type of reform.  Also, the independents would be even less likely to oppose non-crazy executive branch appointees, which would be another benefit for the system.
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2014, 04:38:17 pm »

Orman will win and the DNC needs to take note. Democrat is the bad word in the Plains and South, not the policies of the Democratic Party. If Davis were independent like Orman, he'd be up 15 on Brownback.

Republican is also a bad word, but not as severely. An "Independent" might have beaten Cochran and Rounds as well if there were no Democrats involved.

If I'm head of the DSCC for 2016, I'm putting no Democrat on the ballot in 2016 against Shelby, Murkowski, Boozman, Moran, Hoeven, Thune, and Lee. Instead, I put out a feeler for the most Democratic friendly Independent I can find, tell innocuous PACs to support them, and just step back and see what happens.

Agreed, except regarding Arkansas.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2014, 04:38:55 pm »

Gravis. Consistency dictates that no one is allowed to care about this poll.
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jdb
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2014, 04:50:52 pm »

Gravis. Consistency dictates that no one is allowed to care about this poll.

Gravis is consistently bad in a specific way.  If anything, this suggests Orman is ahead by more Tongue
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2014, 05:11:07 pm »

Garbage polling is garbage polling.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2014, 05:27:58 pm »

I can see 5-10 senators and maybe a couple a dozen Perot - like indies if this became a thing. Maybe there could be a third party formed out of regional opposition.
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Kevin
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2014, 05:43:07 pm »
« Edited: October 03, 2014, 11:53:56 pm by Kevin »


Remember it's only garbage polling to the members here if the Republican is leading!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2014, 05:44:17 pm »

Kevin the graphic in your signature is false. Braley never threatened to sue anyone. I'd advise you to, for legal reasons, take it down ASAP.
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Bigby
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2014, 06:46:34 pm »


Remember it's only garbage polling to the members here is the Republican is leading!
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2014, 04:40:25 pm »
« Edited: October 04, 2014, 04:41:56 pm by eric82oslo »

Gravis. Consistency dictates that no one is allowed to care about this poll.

Gravis is consistently bad in a specific way.  If anything, this suggests Orman is ahead by more Tongue

This. Gravis is showing Hillary doing horribly in all of the four states they've polled to date; California, Connecticut, Nevada and Iowa. Gravis has had an extreme R bias all year long. So taking that into account, Orman should be up by 10% at least.

I mean, Gravis showing Hillary would do 14% worse than Obama in California? Come on! Give me a break.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2014, 05:47:59 pm »

Gravis. Consistency dictates that no one is allowed to care about this poll.

Gravis is consistently bad in a specific way.  If anything, this suggests Orman is ahead by more Tongue

This. Gravis is showing Hillary doing horribly in all of the four states they've polled to date; California, Connecticut, Nevada and Iowa. Gravis has had an extreme R bias all year long. So taking that into account, Orman should be up by 10% at least.

I mean, Gravis showing Hillary would do 14% worse than Obama in California? Come on! Give me a break.

So by that logic, All the polls that have Orman up mid single digits are wrong, and when you unskew this it will have an even bigger Orman lead? And with the NM Gov poll recently, I suppose Martinez is in a dead heat with Gary King? No?
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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2014, 05:53:36 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.

For Democrats to win three of those? It is. Begich and Braley are clearly losing, Udall is a 50/50 shot at best, and only Hagan is ahead.

Anyway, I strongly encourage Democrats not to run candidates in half of the Senate seats up next year. It will simplify the Republican path to keeping a majority.
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Flake
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« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2014, 05:59:49 pm »

Gravis is still a bad pollster, but what I think is going on is a clear Orman lead, and I think a lot of Democrats are saying Orman should be up by more are using past polling by Gravis (which usually favors Republicans) but they've gotten some races right in the past (the most recent one I can think of is the Florida Democratic Primary) and this, along with all the other polls showing Orman up by single digits, should show that Gravis isn't too far off.
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jdb
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« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2014, 06:00:53 pm »

Gravis is still a bad pollster, but what I think is going on is a clear Orman lead, and I think a lot of Democrats are saying Orman should be up by more are using past polling by Gravis (which usually favors Republicans) but they've gotten some races right in the past (the most recent one I can think of is the Florida Democratic Primary) and this, along with all the other polls showing Orman up by single digits, should show that Gravis isn't too far off.

Agree completely
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2014, 06:43:19 pm »

I think when more reliable pollsters show Orman up by less than what Gravis shows, then we reject Gravis. Duh.
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