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  KS: Gravis: Orman +7
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Author Topic: KS: Gravis: Orman +7  (Read 3006 times)
Landslide Andy
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« Reply #25 on: October 04, 2014, 06:48:06 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.

For Democrats to win three of those? It is. Begich and Braley are clearly losing, Udall is a 50/50 shot at best, and only Hagan is ahead.

Anyway, I strongly encourage Democrats not to run candidates in half of the Senate seats up next year. It will simplify the Republican path to keeping a majority.

So it's extremely unlikely for Democrats to win a seat where they're favored, another seat which is a coin flip, and then an upset in one where they're currently an underdog? Note that I didn't say it was likely, just that it wasn't a remote and slim chance like the tone of the initial post implied. I think you guys might be on your victory lap a bit early. Republicans with a 58% chance still leaves Democrats a 42% chance.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #26 on: October 04, 2014, 06:52:16 pm »

So by that logic, All the polls that have Orman up mid single digits are wrong, and when you unskew this it will have an even bigger Orman lead?

One of those single digit polls increased to a 12% Orman lead once you excluded the undecided and "forced" people to choose between the two candidates. Evidence at this point suggests that Orman's lead will only increase once more voters get to know who Orman really is. One of the latest polls showed that one out of three Kansans still don't know much/any about Orman. Almost everyone knows Roberts though, and very few like him, even amongst Republicans themselves.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2014, 06:53:33 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

You act as if this is extremely unlikely.

For Democrats to win three of those? It is. Begich and Braley are clearly losing, Udall is a 50/50 shot at best, and only Hagan is ahead.

Anyway, I strongly encourage Democrats not to run candidates in half of the Senate seats up next year. It will simplify the Republican path to keeping a majority.

So it's extremely unlikely for Democrats to win a seat where they're favored, another seat which is a coin flip, and then an upset in one where they're currently an underdog? Note that I didn't say it was likely, just that it wasn't a remote and slim chance like the tone of the initial post implied. I think you guys might be on your victory lap a bit early. Republicans with a 58% chance still leaves Democrats a 42% chance.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #28 on: October 04, 2014, 06:56:44 pm »

Gravis is still a bad pollster, but what I think is going on is a clear Orman lead, and I think a lot of Democrats are saying Orman should be up by more are using past polling by Gravis (which usually favors Republicans) but they've gotten some races right in the past (the most recent one I can think of is the Florida Democratic Primary) and this, along with all the other polls showing Orman up by single digits, should show that Gravis isn't too far off.

Three polls, I think all three PPP polls, have showed Orman with a double digit lead, and that's with loads of low-intensity voters, that is mostly younger voters and Hispanics - typically Democratic demographics (though perhaps not quite as much in Kansas) - who have still yet to tune into the race.
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jfern
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« Reply #29 on: October 04, 2014, 07:25:42 pm »

Sounds about right, even if it is Gravis.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #30 on: October 06, 2014, 04:15:20 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

Toss Up, Tilt D, Toss Up, Lean D
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #31 on: October 06, 2014, 05:33:37 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

Toss Up, Tilt D, Toss Up, Lean D

On what basis is Alaska, where the incumbent has not led an independent poll since before the Republican primary in August, more of a tossup than Colorado, where polling leads have exchanged throughout the last month? Even if you do want to trot out the theory that "Democrats do better than the polls in Colorado," it would seem the reverse theory has just as much evidence to support it in Alaska.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #32 on: October 06, 2014, 07:17:56 pm »

Given his assurance of caucusing with the majority party, this race matters much less now unless Democrats manage to pick up three of AK, CO, IA, NC. It looks like Orman will be a Republican soon.

Toss Up, Tilt D, Toss Up, Lean D

On what basis is Alaska, where the incumbent has not led an independent poll since before the Republican primary in August, more of a tossup than Colorado, where polling leads have exchanged throughout the last month? Even if you do want to trot out the theory that "Democrats do better than the polls in Colorado," it would seem the reverse theory has just as much evidence to support it in Alaska.

Alaska has exhibited an Incumbency bias in the past, so time will tell if it pulls through for Begich.

His ground game is unparalleled in Alaska as well. He's hitting the remote villages hard and may be able to generate some thousands of votes that could very well tip the race in his favor.
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