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  SHOCK POLL: ROUNDS' LEAD DOWN TO 3%, PRESSLER SURGING SAYS SUSA
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Author Topic: SHOCK POLL: ROUNDS' LEAD DOWN TO 3%, PRESSLER SURGING SAYS SUSA  (Read 3818 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 07, 2014, 06:19:45 pm »

http://www.aberdeennews.com/news/survey-south-dakota-pressler-gaining-on-rounds/article_2aa002bd-260b-596f-b2bb-518a59269ce0.html
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2014, 06:23:41 pm »

I will now accept my accolades

Rounds' margin over Weiland has actually increased a percentage point since PPP's last internal poll of the race in August. The main object of concern for Rounds here is that Pressler has gained 7 points in that same time period; a movement corroborated by other pollsters. I could easily envision another Maine 2010 scenario occurring here, although I am not certain that Rounds would be as lucky as LePage was. Other pollsters besides PPP would need to corroborate this, but it seems that the conservative Howie may also be gaining momentum, which could hurt Rounds if Pressler's momentum continues.

Assuming current trends continue, by the end of October I would expect the standing to be Rounds ~34%; Pressler ~28%; Weiland ~21%; Howie 6%, which would put Pressler well within striking distance.
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2014, 06:30:55 pm »

SUSA is single-handedly saving Democratic hopes for the Senate!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2014, 06:37:16 pm »

Excellent news! I would be furious if it were Weiland pulling up.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2014, 06:44:50 pm »

So much for Pressler being likely to fade. Nice try, PPP.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2014, 06:56:29 pm »

Weiland needs to drop out and endorse Pressler (yes, I know he'd still be on the ballot). He has no shot. Only Pressler does.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2014, 06:57:30 pm »

Weiland is only doing 4 points worse than Pressler. And has an actual campaign apparatus behind him.
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2014, 06:59:39 pm »

Dems should try the Kansas strategy here and get Weiland to drop out
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2014, 07:01:51 pm »

Weiland needs to drop out and endorse Pressler (yes, I know he'd still be on the ballot). He has no shot. Only Pressler does.

Yup, I've thought this for quite a long time now. Putting this race on the board would substantially boost Democrats' odds of retaining the Senate.

Just a side note, aside from FitzGerald, is Rounds the biggest flop of the election cycle? He's definitely worse than Braley at this point. He might even be worse than Roberts.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2014, 07:05:03 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2014, 07:30:23 pm by Eraserhead »

Wow. Three-way race.

I know Pressler is a former Republican but might he actually be to the left of Weiland? I read that he enthusiastically endorsed Obama twice.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2014, 07:17:59 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2014, 07:44:51 pm by SteveRogers »

Weiland is only doing 4 points worse than Pressler. And has an actual campaign apparatus behind him.

Yes, it's definitely a different situation than Kansas. That being said, If Weiland drops out and endorses Pressler, essentially all of his support will go exclusively to Pressler. If, on the other hand, Pressler drops out and endorses Weiland, it's not clear that the same holds. I imagine at least a chunk of Pressler's support would probably go to Rounds. What does the data show about where Pressler's support is coming from?
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wifikitten
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2014, 07:19:05 pm »

"Were Weiland to drop out of the race, 71 percent of his voters say they would back Pressler compared to only 9 percent for Rounds. That would give Pressler 54 percent of the vote compared to 39 percent for Rounds. As things stand, though, Rounds could be elected with less then 40 percent of the vote, the poll shows." Weiland needs to drop out right now if he cares who wins the Senate.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2014, 07:22:44 pm »

Weiland is a bigger risk, but if Weiland were to win, he would actually try to hold the seat. Pressler has pledged he would only take the seat for the one term.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2014, 07:23:17 pm »

Weiland doesn't have to drop out now. There's four weeks left. Let's see if the $1 million Democratic outside groups are about to spend here moves his numbers. He's only polling slightly below Pressler. It's too late to get off the ballot anyway.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2014, 07:27:35 pm »

"Were Weiland to drop out of the race, 71 percent of his voters say they would back Pressler compared to only 9 percent for Rounds. That would give Pressler 54 percent of the vote compared to 39 percent for Rounds. As things stand, though, Rounds could be elected with less then 40 percent of the vote, the poll shows." Weiland needs to drop out right now if he cares who wins the Senate.

Holy sh[inks]. I hope the national party operators are burning up Daschle's/Weiland's phone lines right now.

Weiland doesn't have to drop out now. There's four weeks left. Let's see if the $1 million Democratic outside groups are about to spend here moves his numbers. He's only polling slightly below Pressler. It's too late to get off the ballot anyway.

Hopefully that $1 million is used to beat up on Rounds and not Pressler...
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2014, 07:33:53 pm »

"Were Weiland to drop out of the race, 71 percent of his voters say they would back Pressler compared to only 9 percent for Rounds. That would give Pressler 54 percent of the vote compared to 39 percent for Rounds. As things stand, though, Rounds could be elected with less then 40 percent of the vote, the poll shows." Weiland needs to drop out right now if he cares who wins the Senate.

Holy sh[inks]. I hope the national party operators are burning up Daschle's/Weiland's phone lines right now.

Weiland doesn't have to drop out now. There's four weeks left. Let's see if the $1 million Democratic outside groups are about to spend here moves his numbers. He's only polling slightly below Pressler. It's too late to get off the ballot anyway.

Hopefully that $1 million is used to beat up on Rounds and not Pressler...

http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/04/independent-pressler-faces-opposition-parties/16749013/

It looks like both parties are planning to bury Pressler Sad
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2014, 07:37:24 pm »

Weiland doesn't have to drop out now. There's four weeks left. Let's see if the $1 million Democratic outside groups are about to spend here moves his numbers. He's only polling slightly below Pressler. It's too late to get off the ballot anyway.

Weiland can win this if both parties are going hard after Pressler.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2014, 07:37:50 pm »

"Were Weiland to drop out of the race, 71 percent of his voters say they would back Pressler compared to only 9 percent for Rounds. That would give Pressler 54 percent of the vote compared to 39 percent for Rounds. As things stand, though, Rounds could be elected with less then 40 percent of the vote, the poll shows." Weiland needs to drop out right now if he cares who wins the Senate.

Holy sh[inks]. I hope the national party operators are burning up Daschle's/Weiland's phone lines right now.

Weiland doesn't have to drop out now. There's four weeks left. Let's see if the $1 million Democratic outside groups are about to spend here moves his numbers. He's only polling slightly below Pressler. It's too late to get off the ballot anyway.

Hopefully that $1 million is used to beat up on Rounds and not Pressler...

http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/04/independent-pressler-faces-opposition-parties/16749013/

It looks like both parties are planning to bury Pressler Sad

Damn, that sucks. It will be really lame if this golden opportunity is blown.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2014, 07:40:20 pm »

Probably too good to be true.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2014, 07:41:08 pm »

I love how people take a single poll to mean that Rounds is no longer heavily favored, remember he still has a massive financial advantage
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2014, 07:43:05 pm »

I love how people take a single poll to mean that Rounds is no longer heavily favored, remember he still has a massive financial advantage

and Pressler has the least money and yet it's been Pressler, not Rounds, that has surged.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2014, 07:43:18 pm »

I love how people take a single poll to mean that Rounds is no longer heavily favored, remember he still has a massive financial advantage

Because that massive financial advantage has been doing him so much good, am I right? He started out ahead 20 points.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2014, 07:45:03 pm »

I love how people take a single poll to mean that Rounds is no longer heavily favored, remember he still has a massive financial advantage

Because that massive financial advantage has been doing him so much good, am I right? He started out ahead 20 points.
I know he's making this closer than it needs to be but to believe that Rounds has less than a 90% chance of pulling this out is delusional
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2014, 07:47:14 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2014, 07:49:33 pm by eric82oslo »

Noone posted the actual numbers yet:

Mike Rounds (R): 35%
Larry Pressler (I): 32%
Rick Weiland (D): 28%
Gordon Howie (Far Right): 3%
Undecided: 2%


That's the lowest undecided number I've seen in any Senate contest or any poll of any race from any state so far this season I think! Only one in 50 voters haven't made up their mind, really??!
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2014, 07:55:01 pm »

"Should Pressler drop out, the race would be a dead heat between Rounds and Weiland, with each major party candidate picking up 47 percent of the vote, according to poll results.

With all three men on the ballot, Rounds is backed by only 55 percent of Republican Party base, according to the survey."
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