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Author Topic: NC: Rasmussen: Hagan clinging to lead  (Read 1376 times)
Miles
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« on: October 08, 2014, 09:40:07 am »

Link coming.

Hagan (D)- 46%
Tillis (R)- 45%

With leaners
Hagan- 48%
Tillis- 46%

With leaners that are 'certain to vote'
Hagan- 48%
Tillis- 48%
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2014, 10:04:04 am »

Here comes Thom.

Nine seats?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2014, 10:14:16 am »

Interesting. Will wait for confirmation from someone else, but it looks like the race may have returned to the Toss-Up column.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2014, 10:15:19 am »

Hagan still leads by two, it's Ramussen, float within the MOE, etc.
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2014, 10:15:31 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2014, 10:22:56 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2014, 10:23:21 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.

Ha!
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KCDem
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2014, 10:35:41 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.

You're delusional.
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« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2014, 10:37:57 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.

I was talking about realistic gains, at this point, no one really expects Republicans to gain 10 seats.
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2014, 10:42:01 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.

I was talking about realistic gains, at this point, no one really expects Republicans to gain 10 seats.

They are favored to gain eight and lose one. Hold Kansas and pick up North Carolina and you have nine. Totally realistic, if not quite likely.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2014, 10:45:40 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.

I was talking about realistic gains, at this point, no one really expects Republicans to gain 10 seats.

They are favored to gain eight and lose one. Hold Kansas and pick up North Carolina and you have nine. Totally realistic, if not quite likely.

Roberts is behind in Kansas and Tillis is behind in North Carolina, and neither have lead in any polling since at least August.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2014, 10:56:12 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.

I was talking about realistic gains, at this point, no one really expects Republicans to gain 10 seats.

They are favored to gain eight and lose one. Hold Kansas and pick up North Carolina and you have nine. Totally realistic, if not quite likely.

Roberts is behind in Kansas and Tillis is behind in North Carolina, and neither have lead in any polling since at least August.
True, but those races are Lean I/D, not Safe I/D, and plus KS also counts as a hold if Orman caucuses with the republicans.

Also, remember that what republicans need to get the senate is six. What you are saying by saying '3 to 5 at the best (is what everyone really expects)' is that no one really expects the republicans to get the senate majority, which is a ridiculous and untrue statement.
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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2014, 10:57:38 am »

I didn't think a Rassy poll would generate this much reponse.

Isn't it just ">Rasmussen" Tongue
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2014, 11:00:46 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.

I was talking about realistic gains, at this point, no one really expects Republicans to gain 10 seats.

They are favored to gain eight and lose one. Hold Kansas and pick up North Carolina and you have nine. Totally realistic, if not quite likely.

Roberts is behind in Kansas and Tillis is behind in North Carolina, and neither have lead in any polling since at least August.
True, but those races are Lean I/D, not Safe I/D, and plus KS also counts as a hold if Orman caucuses with the republicans.

Also, remember that what republicans need to get the senate is six. What you are saying by saying '3 to 5 at the best (is what everyone really expects)' is that no one really expects the republicans to get the senate majority, which is a ridiculous and untrue statement.

I didn't say they were safe, but at this point, you can't factor them in the Republican column, because the polling doesn't support that.

I am well aware that Republicans need 6 seats to win the Senate, I just do not think it's a guarantee at this point. I think CO and IA will stay in the blue column and that at least one of AK/AR/LA will stay in the blue column as well, which would leave Republicans short of a majority. We will settle this when the results are in, no use arguing about it right now.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2014, 11:07:16 am »


Uh, no. More like three to five seats at the best.
at the best?

In the best case scenario, republicans hold KY, GA, KS , and gain SD, WV, MT, AR, LA, AK, NC, IA, CO, NH for a gain of 10.

I was talking about realistic gains, at this point, no one really expects Republicans to gain 10 seats.

They are favored to gain eight and lose one. Hold Kansas and pick up North Carolina and you have nine. Totally realistic, if not quite likely.

Roberts is behind in Kansas and Tillis is behind in North Carolina, and neither have lead in any polling since at least August.
True, but those races are Lean I/D, not Safe I/D, and plus KS also counts as a hold if Orman caucuses with the republicans.

Also, remember that what republicans need to get the senate is six. What you are saying by saying '3 to 5 at the best (is what everyone really expects)' is that no one really expects the republicans to get the senate majority, which is a ridiculous and untrue statement.

I didn't say they were safe, but at this point, you can't factor them in the Republican column, because the polling doesn't support that.

I am well aware that Republicans need 6 seats to win the Senate, I just do not think it's a guarantee at this point. I think CO and IA will stay in the blue column and that at least one of AK/AR/LA will stay in the blue column as well, which would leave Republicans short of a majority. We will settle this when the results are in, no use arguing about it right now.
The way you phrased it, it sounded like you considered the senate majority 'Safe D'. 'At the best' generally refers to a 'ceiling' not an 'average scenario'.
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Joshua
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2014, 11:42:40 am »

I didn't think a Rassy poll would generate this much reponse.

Isn't it just ">Rasmussen" Tongue

>Rassmussen

Plus w/ Rassy's consistent R bias, wouldn't this just put it in with where all the other polls have been saying she is all along??
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2014, 04:24:57 am »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-10-07

Summary: D: 48%, R: 46%, I: 2%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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