Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Sankei poll's  Aoki index is 63.8 (34.7+29.1) which puts Abe in trouble but not at the terminal level of below 50.  An Aoki index at 63.8 usually means an election defeat against an united opposition but that is not what Abe has to deal with right now.  So these numbers tend to mean that Abe can limp along for a while.

Info on Aoki index

In some isolated corners of the LDP there seems to be noises being raised against Abe and calling for his ouster.  For sure he will face serious competition in next year's LDP President race.  So far there are no formal organized opposition to Abe yet.  So what sort of situation would lead to more organized resistance to Abe.  

For this we look to something called the 青木の法則 (Aoki's law).  青木 幹雄 (Aoki Mikio) was Secretary-General of the LDP in the Upper House and interim PM back in 2000.  He was a powerful figure in the LDP in the 1990s and retired in 2010. He came up with something called the Aoki Index which is [Approval Rating of the Cabinet + Support for the ruling Party].  His theory is that if this index is above 85 then it makes sense to call a mid-term election since the ruling party is sure to win by a large margin.  Also if this index falls below 50 then the ruling party will face an electoral rout and it is best to replace the PM.  The logic of this index is similar to that old USA electoral rule (which might not be true) that undecided break for the opposition so the performance of the ruling party is a function of visible levels of support (approval rating and party support) and that in an election campaign the opposition ratings will rise.

Back in 2014 when Abe was deciding to see if he should call a mid-term election, a political science article pointed out that most likely he will since the Aoki index was in his favor.  The article pointed out the seats won by the LDP was very correlated to the Aoki index



The Blue bar is the number of seats LDP won and Orange line the Aoki index which he computed using NHK poll.  For 2012 he used an "Inverse Aoki index" where he added Cabinet Disapproval rating + LDP support since the ruling party in 2012 was DPJ.

Then he pointed out that a historical view of the Aoki index



Shows that Abe's Aoki index in Nov seems to be above 80 which seems close enough to 85 to call an election.

An updated version of the Aoki index using NHK polling data up to earlier in 2017 shows Abe in pretty good shape (above 80) up to the Spring of 2017


Of course the most recent fall in Abe/LDP ratings means that his Aoki index have fallen a lot


The latest NHK numbers has Abe's Aoki index is a 65.7.  I think if the Aoki index falls below 55 most likely there will be organized movements within LDP to remove Abe.

One can use the Aoki index using NHK data to look at various Japanese political events since 2000.

Late June 2000 - General election - Aoki index (Average June and July numbers) at 50.5 - LDP-KP barely won over a divide opposition (JCP LP and DPJ).  Any sort of opposition coordination and LDP-KP should have been beaten

April 2001 - Aoki Index at 28.4 - LDP PM Mori forced out of leadership of LDP and out of office

Late July 2001 - Upper House election - Aoki Index (Average of July and August numbers) at 108.2 - massive Koizumi LDP-KP-NCP landslide.  From a vote share point of view greatest landslide in modern Japanese election history

Nov 2003 - General election - Aoki Index at 88.6 - Solid LDP-KP win which is somewhat blunted by the a united DPJ since LP merged into DPJ before the election

July 2004 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 76.1 - LDP-KP barely won and was seen as a setback for Koizumi

Sep 2005 - General election - Aoki Index at 100.4 - LDP-KP Koizumi landslide despite creation of several LDP splinter parties

July 2007 - Upper House election - Aoki Index at 69.8 - LDP-KP defeat at the hands of DPJ led opposition mostly due to opposition unity against LDP.  

Sept 2007 - Aoki index at 61.4 - Abe forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well.

May 2008 - Aoki index at 46.6 - Fukuda forced out of office as LDP President and with that the PM as well

Late Aug 2009 - General election -  Aoki Index (Average of August and Sept  numbers) at 43.8 - LDP-KP landslide defeat by DPJ led opposition alliance

May 2010 - Aoki index at 41.8 - Hatoyama forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

July 2010 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 68.8 - DPJ defeated by LDP-KP mostly due to inability of DPJ to lock on allies like SDP or YP or even KP.  

August 2011 - Aoki index at 34.4 - Kan forced out of office as DPJ President and with that PM as well

Dec 2012 - General election - Aoki index at 36.1 - DPJ destroyed by LDP-KP in a landslide defeat.  JRP and YP added to the damage by splitting the anti-LDP vote

July 2013 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 99.5 - LDP-KP landslide victory as JRP and YP loses vote share to LDP-KP

Dec 2014 - General election - Aoki index at 85.1 - LDP-KP landslide victory despite DPJ-JIP tactical alliances

Aug 2015 - Aoki index at 71.7 - Abe's low point so far due to new Security Law.  LDP held firm and Abe bounced back.

July 2016 - Upper House election - Aoki index at 88.3 - significant LDP-KP victory whose scale was somewhat blunted by DP-JCP alliances in 1- member districts

July 2017 - Aoki index at 65.7 - A series of scandals, gaffs and debacle in the Tokyo Prefecture election drives Abe into the worst crisis since his 2012 comeback.  

Looking at this history of Aoki index if the index falls below 60 then there will be pressure for Abe to go ASAP.  If going into the LDP leadership race which will most likely before the 2018 general election and the Aoki index cannot get above 75 if not 80 then Abe's opposition will be very significant with a strong chance he will be defeated.

[jaichind]

Renho resigns as head of DP.

Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPM Securities Japan Co., says in emailed note there is no alternative to Abe.  He see at 60% chance Abe staying in power until 2021 by winning the LDP leadership election in September 2018, and national elections for both the lower and upper house.  He says that fall in Abe’s approval rate likely to halt after the reshuffle and potential successors include Finance Minister Taro Aso, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba.  He also says that there is 30% probability Aso or Kishida would become prime minister before the end of next year.  So he seems to think that either Abe is gone this year or go on to be PM until 2021.  What does not kill you makes you stronger.

[Lord Halifax]

Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPM Securities Japan Co., says in e-mailed note there is no alternative to Abe. 

Why do you trust an economist on this?

[jaichind]

Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPM Securities Japan Co., says in e-mailed note there is no alternative to Abe. 

Why do you trust an economist on this?

I do not.  I do not know much about him other than to read some of the reports he sends out once in a while.  My understanding is that his team models economic trends in Japan and part of that forecast model is also to forecast political changes.

[jaichind]

Defense minister Tomomi Inada whose gaffe in a Tokyo election rally help doom the LDP in the Tokyo Prefecture elections resigned today along with the army chief.  She was forced to resign as investigations into cover-ups in the Ministry of Defense over records of the Japan Self-Defense Forces' controversial peacekeeping activities in South Sudan last year, are catching up to her. 

[Lachi]

Taro Aso? you mean the one who lead the LDP to a landslide defeat?
I really don't think the LDP would want their leader to have that kind of legacy.

Also, who do you think would be the most likely successor for the DP?

[jaichind]

Taro Aso? you mean the one who lead the LDP to a landslide defeat?
I really don't think the LDP would want their leader to have that kind of legacy.

Also, who do you think would be the most likely successor for the DP?

Well, Aso recently merged his faction with another smaller faction so he now heads the second largest faction in the LDP and second only to Abe's faction.  Obviously Abe led the LDP to defeat in 2009 but Abe led LDP to defeat in 2007 and had to resign in disgrace a few months after that.   Abe was able to come back and in theory Aso could also as well.  The way the LDP leadership race works is that if no candidate can win an absolute majority of an electoral college of LDP MPs and local LDP chapters it becomes a vote of just MPs for the top two finishers.  Aso just like Abe in 2012 is a lot stronger with the LDP MPs than the local chapters and the way Abe won in 2012 could be a way for Aso to win in a LDP leadership race where Abe bows out.

Most likely successor to Renho would be 前原 誠司(Maehara Seiji) a MP from Kyoto and leader of DPJ in the 2005-6 period.
 

[Tintrlvr]

Taro Aso? you mean the one who lead the LDP to a landslide defeat?
I really don't think the LDP would want their leader to have that kind of legacy.

Also, who do you think would be the most likely successor for the DP?

Everything old is new again. Both major parties seem to be ready to recycle old leaders. Abe left office deeply unpopular the first time after just a year, then managed to claw his way back into the Prime Minister's office five years later and hold on to power at least until now. Would hardly be a surprise to see Aso do the same.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet reshuffle is today.  Most likely will not boast his ratings that much but it might have stopped the bleeding.  As expected 岸田 文雄(Kishida Fumio) left the cabinet to become chairman LDP’s Policy Research Council.  This was what Kishida had asked for and it is clear that it was to pave the way for Kishida to challenge Abe in next LDP Presidential race in 2018. Kishida is the leader of a medium sized faction behind Abe's and Aso's factions.

[jaichind]

Some new polls post cabinet re-shuffle

Nikkei Abe approval/disapproval 42(+3)/49(-3)
Mainichi Abe approval/disapproval 35(+9)/47(-9)
Kyodo Abe approval/disapproval 44.4(+8.6)/43.2(-9.9)
News24 Abe approval/disapproval  42/48

Which gives us this curve ... a bump upward.  We will see if this is sustainable

[jaichind]

Asahi poll.  Abe Approval/Disapproval 35(+2)/45(-2)
NTV poll.  Abe Approval/Disapproval  35.6(+3.7)/47.3(-1.9)

Approval/Disapproval curve


Abe average approval around high 30s.

[jaichind]

Another wave of polls

Yomiuri Abe Approval/Disapproval  42(+6)/48(-4)
ANN Abe Approval/Disapproval  37.6(+8.4)/47.2(-7.3)
NHK Abe Approval/Disapproval 39(+4)/43(-5)

Mostly fits into the cabinet reshuffle moving approval ratings from low 30s to high 30s narrative

[jaichind]

NHK LDP support at 34.8 (+4.1) so NHK Aoki index at 73.8 which is around the Aug 2015 low point due to the new controversial security legislation.    With a strong unified opposition this would mean something of a tie in an election.  Of course the opposition is in shambles. 

[jaichind]

DP MP 細野 豪志(Hosono Gōshi) quit DP saying that he will form a new party given that DP has no prospects to defeating LDP.  He plans to form an alliance with Koike ally 若狭勝(Wakasa Masaru)'s new party.   Wakasa's party, JFP (Japan First Party) seems to be blessed by Koike as a national version of TPFA.

[jaichind]

If seems for Koike backed 若狭勝(Wakasa Masaru)'s new party, JFP, there might be another MP that might join in addition to ex-DP MP 細野 豪志(Hosono Gōshi).  If appears 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who founded Libertarian LDP splinter YP back in 2009  which imploded in 2014 and joined JRP back in 2016 to win an Upper House seat has fallen out with JRP and will most likely join JFP.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll

23% want Abe out of PM ASAP
41% are for Abe as PM until next LDP Prez election in Sept 2018
16% are for Abe to serve as PM until Sept 2021 until the LDP Prez election after next
14% are for Abe to serve as PM indefinitely

For LDP voters only

 3% want Abe out of PM ASAP
38% are for Abe as PM until next LDP Prez election in Sept 2018
28% are for Abe to serve as PM until Sept 2021 until the LDP Prez election after next
28% are for Abe to serve as PM indefinitely

With these numbers Abe might be forced to not to even contest in the Sept 2018 LDP Prez election as by then he might be a drag on the LDP overall.

[jaichind]

Latest average line chart on Abe Approval/Disapproval

[jaichind]

Abe approval recovery continues although still below water

[jaichind]

茨城(Ibaraki) Prefecture governor race was yesterday.  Incumbent who was backed by LDP-KP and DP broke with the LDP over the nuclear issue so LDP-KP ran their own candidate against the incumbent.  The fact that the incumbent was running for an unprecedented 6th term was also an issue.   JCP backed its own candidate who had the support of SDP and LP along with part of DP.  DP mostly neutral but most of DP backed the incumbent. 

The result was a LDP-KP victory

LDP-KP                                 47.50%
Incumbent (mostly DP)          40.85%
JCP-SDP-LP-(part DP)            11.65%

茨城(Ibaraki) was always the strongest LDP prefecture of all the Tokyo suburbs.  LDP-KP overcoming the incumbent shows the LDP recovery from the Tokyo Prefecture elections continues even as part of the reason for victory was that the anti-LDP forces could not unite.   

[Lachi]

The problem with the opposition in Japan, and I think Japanese politics in general, is that the factionalism that is so prominent in the political parties in Japan is getting to a point where a solidly unified opposition might is nigh impossible at this time. The politicians who splinter off don't seem to realise that them moving to new parties is just going to take the vote away from their old party, and is only going to help the party who they are opposed to in the first place.

#ANALYSIS

[jaichind]

The problem with the opposition in Japan, and I think Japanese politics in general, is that the factionalism that is so prominent in the political parties in Japan is getting to a point where a solidly unified opposition might is nigh impossible at this time. The politicians who splinter off don't seem to realise that them moving to new parties is just going to take the vote away from their old party, and is only going to help the party who they are opposed to in the first place.

#ANALYSIS

I tend to think it has to do with the unique role of KP.   The KP vote base overlaps with the JCP and DP vote base.  A natural ideological based alignment would be a DP-KP-JCP alliance against LDP which over time would create a 2 party (bloc) system much like the USA given the FPTP nature of elections at the national level.  Problem is given KP problem of needing "acceptance" into the mainstream due to is fear of be banned as a cult it aligns with the most powerful party for protection which would mean LDP.  This means that DP can only compete if it lures defectors from LDP.  But that act creates a DP with a very wide ideological spectrum which makes collaboration with JCP difficult.    In the meantime the ruling LDP is unusually large given the very loyal KP vote when it counts which tends to give it an advantage in FPTP seats. 

This in turn feeds back back at the local level where given economic stagnation the farm league for national politics needs subsides from the central government so they also trend LDP.  And the feedback loop is complete when the local farm league LDP advantage also gives the LDP a candidate quality advantage over the opposition.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Taro Aso's at it again!

[jaichind]

Taro Aso's at it again!

Yeah, but in Asia Hitler is not as much of a trigger as in Europe and USA.  I posted this before but a Taiwan ROC high school anti-gay marriage parade last year had





 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, but considering this isn't the first time Aso has had to apologise for using such rehearing, it's even more reprehensible.

[jaichind]

Abe approval has mostly recovered to a level before the Tokyo Prefecture elections.