Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

New DP leader 前原 誠司( Maehara Seiji)



is already running into trouble.  Some key DP heavyweight MPs are quitting.  

The he picked rising DP superstar and key Maehara ally 山尾 志桜里 (Yamao Shiori) as his new #2 who then right away



had to resign from the DP due to a extramarital affair scandal.

It would not surprise me that LDP might just go for a snap election next couple of months to take advantage to DP on the ropes as well as the new pro-Koike JFP being nowhere being ready for prime-time.  
 

[Lachi]

wow the Democrats are falling apart quickly.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Japan is the only country in the world (maybe Nepal, I guess) where I would feel obligated to vote for a Communist Party, especially if next election becomes a Koike Vs Abe crapfest (i.e. an right wing cult inner skirmish).

[jaichind]

More and more DP MPs are quitting DP to join the grouping formed by ex-DP MP 細野 豪志(Hosono Gōshi).    Hosono group plans to form an alliance with Koike ally 若狭勝(Wakasa Masaru)'s new party.   Wakasa's party, JFP (Japan First Party) seems to be blessed by Koike as a national version of TPFA.

This seems fairly similar to 2012 when a large number of DPJ MP defected to the new JRP being formed by Hashimoto.  Of course most of them came back in 2016 when the rump JIP merged back into DPJ to form DP.  Most likely this means the DP vote share in the next election will fall from the low 20s to something like 13%-15% although I can the see the LDP losing a few % vote share as well to this new "Third Pole" alliance.

[Lachi]

I REALLY don't want it to happen, but It's looking like the LDP might get a massive super majority all by itself the way the opposition is going.

[jaichind]

I REALLY don't want it to happen, but It's looking like the LDP might get a massive super majority all by itself the way the opposition is going.

The main reason  this might not take place is because now what is good for LDP is not the same as what is good for Abe.  Abe's ratings are still not great.  In a snap election where LDP win by a landslide most of the credit would go to the LDP machine and not Abe and in fact might show that the LDP does not really need Abe to win.  That means that a snap election actually works against the interest of Abe even if it works in the interest of LDP.  So until LDP and Abe interests are aligned they will not be able to take advantage of the sinking DP.

[jaichind]

Political analyst 松田馨 (Matsuda Kaoru) who was the must accurate professional projection of 33 seats for the LDP in the recent Tokyo Prefecture election (LDP ended up with 23 seats) projected the following for a snap election (vs 2014)

                         2014                                 Projection           
                District   PR   Total    PR%       District   PR   Total    Implied PR%
LDP             223     68    291   33.11%       212       61   273            30.5%
KP                  9      26     35   13.71%          9        25    34            13.5%
DPJ/DP          38     35     73    18.33%        44        28    72            15.5%
JIP/JRP          11     30     41    15.72%         6        12    18              7.0%
JFP                                                             9        26    36             14.5%
PFG/PJK          2       0      2      2.65%          0         0       0              0.5%
PLP/LP            2       0       2     1.93%          2         0       2              2.5%
SDP                1      1        2     2.46%          1         1       2              2.5%
JCP                 1     21     21    11.37%         1       23     24             12.5%
Ind.                8      0       8                         5         0      5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  295    180   475                     289      176   465

LDP-KP held to just under 2/3 majority 307 out of 465

Since the 2014 election there has been redistricting reducing the number seats from 475 to 465.
I also computed the implied PR vote share.  Matsuda Kaoru seems to share my view that under these circumstances DP will be down to around 15% with LDP  losing around 2.5%-3.0% from 2014.  PFG vote in 2014 mostly went to LDP anyway so the net loss for LDP from 2014 is actually a bit more than that. 

With these PR vote share Matsuda Kaoru must be assuming some sort of tactical arrangement between DP and JFP as well as separately between DP LP SDP and JCP.  If there we not such tactical agreements then there is no way LDP would be held to just 212 District seats.  On the other hand if there was a full blown DP-LDP-SDP-JCP alliance then I suspect the LDP would be worse off than 2012 seats so these alliances must be on a seat-by-seat basis. 

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-16/japan-s-leader-abe-may-call-snap-general-election-nhk-reports

NHK reports that Abe may call snap elections for the Lower House which would take place around Oct 29  or so.  

[jaichind]

Abe approval now above water by a significant margin again

[jaichind]

One theory, at least I have, that Abe wants to call elections now is the Casino Bill coming up.  KP is already in big trouble with its Married Women Division by backing the bill under pressure from LDP.  If it comes up for a vote early next year the pressure within the KP may be so high that it may be forced to break off its alliance with the LDP or face a massive rebellion in its ranks in the next election.  Unless, of course, if the election was held in late 2017 BEFORE such a vote.  I also think LDP-KP alliance have one last election in it and 2017 may be that election for both parties can cash in.  After that the internal pressure in both parties may be that the alliance will have to be dissolved on way or another. 

[jaichind]

It seems KP senior leaders will have an emergency meeting tomorrow.  It seems that this snap election rumor is real.  There are some by-elections coming up.  If Abe dissolves the lower chamber on Sept. 28, the general election and the by-elections will likely be integrated, with voting on either Oct 22 or Oct 29.

The LDP gamble is clear.  Get an election while DP is weak and JFP has not been really established outside Tokyo.

[jaichind]

As soon as rumor of snap elections came out Japanese political discussion boards had a snap survey on like results which is

23% The number of opposition seats increases, the ruling party seats decreases
42% The ruling party seats increases and the opposition party seats decreases
35% The ruling party seats and the opposition party seats decreases

It seems a lot number of Japanese political junkies expect JFP to win a significant number of seats to the point where 35% of them think both LDP-KP and various opposition parities will all lose seats.   

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Japan is the only country in the world (maybe Nepal, I guess) where I would feel obligated to vote for a Communist Party, especially if next election becomes a Koike Vs Abe crapfest (i.e. an right wing cult inner skirmish).

This.

[Simfan34]

Japan is the only country in the world (maybe Nepal, I guess) where I would feel obligated to vote for a Communist Party, especially if next election becomes a Koike Vs Abe crapfest (i.e. an right wing cult inner skirmish).

They're agnostic on the issue of the monarchy, for goodness' sake.

If it does become Abe vs Koike vs JIP et al, what are the prospects for constitutional revision?