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  Georgia is absolutely smashing its VR records (AND NOW ITS EARLY VOTING RECORDS)
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Author Topic: Georgia is absolutely smashing its VR records (AND NOW ITS EARLY VOTING RECORDS)  (Read 2452 times)
Fmr. Pres. Griff
Adam Griffin
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« on: October 09, 2014, 03:34:36 am »
« edited: October 29, 2014, 09:11:31 am by NE Caretaker Griffin »

First of all, I highly recommend reading this piece by Nate Cohn on why the polls may be off by more in Georgia than in other states, due to the changes in the population, the way many pollsters peg estimates to the Census, and how VR can impact this as well:

Why Georgia May Be Bluer Than It Appears




While I did an exposé using the VAN a while back - which suggested that VR rates were actually below 2010 levels - it turns out that the system simply hadn't been updated. The reality couldn't contrast more.

Georgia has added in 2014 alone 212,000 new registered voters - with estimates suggesting 40,000 - 60,000 more still waiting to be processed (some being submitted months ago and still not showing up in the system). The broader trends in the state have been strong enough to have shrunk the white share of RVs from 63% in 2010 to 58% as of October 7th.

AJC analysis: Georgia sees surge in voter rollsSad

Quote
An unusually high number of residents have registered to vote in the Peach State this year, and thousands are still awaiting approval just days before early voting starts Monday across Georgia.

...

More than 212,000 have been added to voter rolls so far this year as the Nov. 4 midterm election approaches.

On average, a county election office may see 50 to 70 pending voter applications, said Chris Harvey, the chief investigator for the Secretary of State’s Office. This year, it’s 2,000 to 3,000, which Harvey called “uncharacteristically high.”

...

The total number of active voters in Georgia now tops 5.1 million — up from more than 4.9 million as of March 1. It will rise. On Monday alone, for example, Fulton officials received 2,200 online voter applications in addition to several thousand other applications the county still needs to process.

The statewide bump follows anecdotal reports from local election officials of a higher than normal volume of voter registration applications this year, which is a nonpresidential election year when turnout generally dips.

It may also not represent the true scope of new registrants.

The New Georgia Project, the Democratic-backed group now under state investigation, has said it cannot locate more than 40,000 applicants on Georgia’s voter rolls despite in some cases filing their paperwork months ago.

How does this stack up to historical trends? There is simply no comparison when looking at changes in voter registration between a presidential year and the following mid-term elections. Let's look at the first graph I've made, which shows the number of active registered voters in the state immediately before each election (1998-2014):

Img

While not the single biggest increase in registered voters between any two election cycles, it is still the biggest increase in registered voters between a presidential and a mid-term in the 50 years of recorded stats on file with the SoS - by a metric ton. Speaking of which, let's take a look at changes over those 50 years in the voter rolls:

Img

There have only been four instances in the past 50 years in which the number of RVs increases in a mid-term cycle when compared to two years prior (1966, 1998, 2006 and 2014). In every other case, voter rolls contracted in Georgia.

And finally, the most visually-stunning graph that drives the point home. How many net active registered voters in total have been added over this two-year period when compared to every other cycle?

Img

It isn't even close. Georgia has literally added twice as many voters during this mid-term cycle as any other mid-term cycle in modern history (310,000). The Dem wave is building!

Img


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Flake
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2014, 08:29:27 am »

Wonderful news!
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2014, 08:40:00 am »

THE DREAM IS ALIVE
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20PETE20
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2014, 12:03:13 pm »

Surf's up!
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Barnes
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2014, 09:05:20 pm »

THE DREAM IS ALIVE

Indeed, my friend.  The wave of progress cannot by stopped. Grin

Seriously though, this is fantastic news for democracy in general, and bodes very well for Democrats in the future, regardless of the elections this year.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2014, 09:07:16 pm »

THE DREAM IS ALIVE

Indeed, my friend.  The wave of progress cannot by stopped. Grin

Seriously though, this is fantastic news for democracy in general, and bodes very well for Democrats in the future, regardless of the elections this year.

I just hope we'll see a similar surge in Texas and Arizona in 2016. Smiley
I guess Florida could seriously need one as well, right?
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retromike22
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« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2014, 07:25:06 pm »

THE DREAM IS ALIVE

Indeed, my friend.  The wave of progress cannot by stopped. Grin

Seriously though, this is fantastic news for democracy in general, and bodes very well for Democrats in the future, regardless of the elections this year.

I just hope we'll see a similar surge in Texas and Arizona in 2016. Smiley
I guess Florida could seriously need one as well, right?

I think Arizona should be the main focus next.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2014, 04:10:55 pm »

Quote
The good news for Republicans in Georgia: Since March 1, 183,416 new voters have registered, according to Secretary of State Brian Kemp.

That’s a good deal less than the number many, including Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, have said is necessary for a statewide Democratic victory on Nov. 4.

The bad news for Republicans: Only one-third of those new voters described themselves as white. While they make up a much smaller portion of Georgia’s voting population, African-Americans – who provide a reliable base for Democrats – accounted for nearly 37 percent of new voters.

– African-American voters: 67,500, or 36.8 percent;
– White voters: 61,779, or 33.68 percent;
– Hispanic voters: 7,550, or 4.12 percent;
– Asian/Pacific island: 5,094, or 2.78 percent;
– Other: 3,865, or 2.11 percent;
– Unknown: 37,628, or 20.52 percent.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/10/21/only-one-third-of-183416-new-voters-describe-themselves-as-white/
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2014, 06:30:18 pm »

Quote
The good news for Republicans in Georgia: Since March 1, 183,416 new voters have registered, according to Secretary of State Brian Kemp.

That’s a good deal less than the number many, including Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, have said is necessary for a statewide Democratic victory on Nov. 4.

The bad news for Republicans: Only one-third of those new voters described themselves as white. While they make up a much smaller portion of Georgia’s voting population, African-Americans – who provide a reliable base for Democrats – accounted for nearly 37 percent of new voters.

– African-American voters: 67,500, or 36.8 percent;
– White voters: 61,779, or 33.68 percent;
– Hispanic voters: 7,550, or 4.12 percent;
– Asian/Pacific island: 5,094, or 2.78 percent;
– Other: 3,865, or 2.11 percent;
– Unknown: 37,628, or 20.52 percent.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/10/21/only-one-third-of-183416-new-voters-describe-themselves-as-white/

How come Hispanics aren't registering?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2014, 08:02:22 pm »

I'd venture that Hispanics are most likely to decline to state their race
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2014, 11:30:15 pm »

I personally think that around 50% of those unknowns are Latinos. Not a complete correlation, but the more Latino-populated counties usually have much higher rates of unknown RVs.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2014, 11:05:48 am »

THE DREAM IS ALIVE
Wonderful news!
Surf's up!
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2014, 03:52:20 pm »

Excellent! The people are speaking.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2014, 04:43:08 pm »

Excellent! The people are speaking.

Off topic, but how come you left out Franken and Durbin from your sig?
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2014, 03:31:46 pm »

Excellent! The people are speaking.

Off topic, but how come you left out Franken and Durbin from your sig?

Primarily because they are not in trouble. Durbin isn't even campaigning (except for other candidates) and Franken's situation is similar. Dayton is only at Lean D now and the rest are toss-ups.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2014, 03:45:38 pm »

Excellent! The people are speaking.

Off topic, but how come you left out Franken and Durbin from your sig?

Primarily because they are not in trouble. Durbin isn't even campaigning (except for other candidates) and Franken's situation is similar. Dayton is only at Lean D now and the rest are toss-ups.

Ah, I thought so. Aren't Franken and Dayton set to win by pretty similar margins though?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2014, 05:16:02 pm »

Excellent! The people are speaking.

Off topic, but how come you left out Franken and Durbin from your sig?

Primarily because they are not in trouble. Durbin isn't even campaigning (except for other candidates) and Franken's situation is similar. Dayton is only at Lean D now and the rest are toss-ups.

Ah, I thought so. Aren't Franken and Dayton set to win by pretty similar margins though?

Yes, but polls vastly overestimated Dayton's margin in 2010.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2014, 07:53:17 pm »

Excellent! The people are speaking.

Off topic, but how come you left out Franken and Durbin from your sig?

Primarily because they are not in trouble. Durbin isn't even campaigning (except for other candidates) and Franken's situation is similar. Dayton is only at Lean D now and the rest are toss-ups.

Ah, I thought so. Aren't Franken and Dayton set to win by pretty similar margins though?

Most sites have Franken at Likely D while some have Dayton at Lean D.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2014, 08:50:20 am »

GET A LOAD OF THIS:

These numbers are looking insanely good for Democrats, and defy almost every poll in terms of the level of black and/or Democratic turnout. Between my last update yesterday and this one today (which covers early voting through Tuesday), the black share of the electorate jumped by one-half of a percentage point (up until yesterday, it had been increasing around 1/3 of a point per day). Even better is that trends during early voting will likely continue to increase in favor of Democrats all the way through the final day of early voting. Not to mention that my calculations suggest that we could have 750,000-800,000 early voters when all is said and done (was 678,000 in 2010).

And to put into perspective what we'd expect the "drop-off" to be in terms of racial composition of the electorate in early voting versus all voters, it dropped from 29% in 2010 to 28% for the entire electorate. This would suggest that we very well may have a black electorate that is a larger percentage of the vote than it was in 2008 or 2012. This is also the first day in early voting (and I'm sure in at least three or four election cycles) where the number of dominant-Democratic primary voters is outnumbering the number of dominant-Republican primary voters.

Quote
2010 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 678,939
White: 66.5%
Black: 29.0%
Other: 3.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Latino: 0.4%

2014 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 521,587
White: 62.3%
Black: 32.0% (^^)
Other: 4.7% (^^)
Latino: 0.5%
Asian: 0.5%

Quote
Early Vote by Gender, 2010:
Female: 55.1%
Male: 44.9%

Early Vote by Gender, 2014:
Female: 54.6% (^)
Male: 45.4%

Quote
Early Vote by Likely Party, 2010:
Likely Democrat: 36.4%
Likely Republican: 43.1%
Likely Independent: 5.2%
Unknown: 13.8%

Early Vote by Likely Party, 2014:
Likely Democrat: 40.4% (^)
Likely Republican: 39.2%
Likely Independent: 5.2%
Unknown: 15.2%

Quote
Early Vote by Age, 2010:
18-30: 5.4%
31-50: 24.4%
51-64: 32.2%
65+: 38.0%

Early Vote by Age, 2014:
18-30: 4.4% (^)
31-50: 18.0% (^)
51-64: 33.3%
65+: 44.3%
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2014, 11:21:33 am »

Dominating!
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2014, 11:43:51 am »

Nunn will probably still need more than the nominal 23% of the white vote that Kerry '04/Obama '08 got to win the election day vote, and she'll definitely need more than that to avoid a runoff. But, the more black voters GA have, the lower the 'Nunn white vote threshold' gets.

If Perdue wins with a runoff, or loses, republicans really need a 'Georgia autopsy', because they will have gotten the same results or worse as they did in the dem wave year of 2008.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2014, 12:10:53 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2014, 12:12:33 pm by NE Caretaker Griffin »

Nunn will probably still need more than the nominal 23% of the white vote that Kerry '04/Obama '08 got to win the election day vote, and she'll definitely need more than that to avoid a runoff. But, the more black voters GA have, the lower the 'Nunn white vote threshold' gets.

If Perdue wins with a runoff, or loses, republicans really need a 'Georgia autopsy', because they will have gotten the same results or worse as they did in the dem wave year of 2008.

They both need 30% of the white vote to be in a good position to win a majority, assuming the black vote goes 90% D. Most polling puts both of them within that range when considering MoE, and black support always starts out underpolled and rises through the cycle - and usually seems to end up higher than it is pegged in polling (right now, it's bouncing between 80-85% D). I calculated the EV totals earlier and I was getting 51% D with those figures (and these numbers should continue to improve throughout the rest of the week).
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2014, 12:33:37 pm »

Voter file just updated with Tuesday's totals:

607,569 voters
Black share steady (32.0%)
White share steady (62.3%)

Democrats slightly down (40.0%)
Republicans steady (39.2%)
Unknowns rising strongly (14.5%)

Females up (54.9%)

Large increase of 31-50 year-olds (18.8%)
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