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  High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH
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Author Topic: High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH  (Read 3365 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 13, 2014, 04:49:51 am »
« edited: October 13, 2014, 12:25:01 pm by Tender Branson »

NC (done by HPU)Sad

Thom Tillis – 40 percent
Kay Hagan – 40 percent
Sean Haugh – 7 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 13 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/32memoB.pdf

CO (done by SurveyUSA)Sad

Cory Gardner – 46 percent
Mark Udall – 42 percent
Other – 7 percent
Undecided – 5 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/PDF-Colorado-Political.pdf

NH (done by SurveyUSA)Sad

Jeanne Shaheen – 48 percent
Scott Brown – 46 percent
Undecided – 6 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/PDF-New-Hampshire-Political.pdf

http://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2014/10/hpu-poll-hagan-and-tillis-tied-among-nc-likely-voters
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 05:20:09 am »

Quick background check:

HPU is relatively new in the polling business. They started in 2010, but didn't release GE polls back then.

In 2012, their final US poll had Obama+3 (Obama won by 4) and Romney+1 in NC (Romney won by 2).

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http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2013/10/19release.pdf
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 08:11:42 am »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 09:42:06 am »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5

I'll go ahead and say Hagan +4, Gardner +3 (Denver post endorsement bump), and Shaheen +6.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 09:58:19 am »

I'll guess...

Hagan +2
Gardner +2
Shaheen +7
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2014, 10:04:32 am »

My guess:

NC: Hagan+2
CO: Gardner+1
NH: Shaheen+3
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2014, 10:10:02 am »

NC  Hagan +4
CO Even
NH Shaheen +6
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2014, 10:39:24 am »


I'm thinking this
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backtored
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 10:40:20 am »

I predict

Hagan +2
Gardner +5
Shaheen +3
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Flake
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2014, 11:35:29 am »

Hagan+3
Udall+1
Shaheen+5
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 11:39:20 am »
« Edited: October 13, 2014, 11:41:28 am by RogueBeaver »

40/40 in NC, 46/42 Gardner in CO, 48/46 Shaheen in NH.

Enten says CO & NH were actually done by SUSA.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 11:40:54 am »

Note that the CO and NH polls appear to be done by SUSA.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 11:41:44 am »


Note that the CO and NH polls appear to be done by SUSA.

They're suddenly horrible now, right?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2014, 11:43:07 am »

Ouch.
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backtored
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2014, 11:44:07 am »

Maybe you all should stop doubting the GOP's COmentum.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2014, 11:44:40 am »

Great polls! All aboard train Tillis!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2014, 11:51:07 am »

Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2014, 11:55:54 am »

Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.

It was recently discovered that Udall has a history of littering.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2014, 11:58:53 am »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5

I was off on each by exactly three points.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2014, 12:01:11 pm »

Udall's at 39/52 disapproval, Hagan 35/54, Shaheen 47/48.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2014, 12:02:51 pm »

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.
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Devils30
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2014, 12:04:08 pm »

The Colorado sample is too white, was 81% white in 2010 and will not be 84% this year.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2014, 12:05:48 pm »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.
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Devils30
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2014, 12:06:26 pm »

22% in 2010 were 65 and older, the 34% 65 and up figure here is absurd.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2014, 12:07:07 pm »

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.
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