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Author Topic: High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH  (Read 3136 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 13, 2014, 04:49:51 am »

NC (done by HPU)Sad

Thom Tillis – 40 percent
Kay Hagan – 40 percent
Sean Haugh – 7 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 13 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/32memoB.pdf

CO (done by SurveyUSA)Sad

Cory Gardner – 46 percent
Mark Udall – 42 percent
Other – 7 percent
Undecided – 5 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/PDF-Colorado-Political.pdf

NH (done by SurveyUSA)Sad

Jeanne Shaheen – 48 percent
Scott Brown – 46 percent
Undecided – 6 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/PDF-New-Hampshire-Political.pdf

http://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2014/10/hpu-poll-hagan-and-tillis-tied-among-nc-likely-voters
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 12:25:01 pm by Tender Branson »Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 05:20:09 am »

Quick background check:

HPU is relatively new in the polling business. They started in 2010, but didn't release GE polls back then.

In 2012, their final US poll had Obama+3 (Obama won by 4) and Romney+1 in NC (Romney won by 2).

Quote
The poll results from registered voters across the country finds support for the candidates split as 46 percent said they would vote for President Barack Obama, while 43 percent said they would vote for Gov. Mitt Romney.

Within a special oversample of North Carolina registered voters, 46 percent of respondents said they had voted or would vote for Gov. Romney while 45 percent said they had voted or would vote for President Obama.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2013/10/19release.pdf
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 08:11:42 am »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 09:42:06 am »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5

I'll go ahead and say Hagan +4, Gardner +3 (Denver post endorsement bump), and Shaheen +6.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 09:58:19 am »

I'll guess...

Hagan +2
Gardner +2
Shaheen +7
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2014, 10:04:32 am »

My guess:

NC: Hagan+2
CO: Gardner+1
NH: Shaheen+3
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2014, 10:10:02 am »

NC  Hagan +4
CO Even
NH Shaheen +6
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Castro
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2014, 10:39:24 am »

NC  Hagan +4
CO Even
NH Shaheen +6

I'm thinking this
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backtored
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 10:40:20 am »

I predict

Hagan +2
Gardner +5
Shaheen +3
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Flake
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2014, 11:35:29 am »

Hagan+3
Udall+1
Shaheen+5
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 11:39:20 am »

40/40 in NC, 46/42 Gardner in CO, 48/46 Shaheen in NH.

Enten says CO & NH were actually done by SUSA.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 11:41:28 am by RogueBeaver »Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 11:40:54 am »

Note that the CO and NH polls appear to be done by SUSA.
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 11:41:44 am »


Note that the CO and NH polls appear to be done by SUSA.

They're suddenly horrible now, right?
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Mehmentum
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2014, 11:43:07 am »

Ouch.
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backtored
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2014, 11:44:07 am »

Maybe you all should stop doubting the GOP's COmentum.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2014, 11:44:40 am »

Great polls! All aboard train Tillis!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2014, 11:51:07 am »

Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2014, 11:55:54 am »

Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.

It was recently discovered that Udall has a history of littering.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2014, 11:58:53 am »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5

I was off on each by exactly three points.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2014, 12:01:11 pm »

Udall's at 39/52 disapproval, Hagan 35/54, Shaheen 47/48.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
Invisible Obama
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2014, 12:02:51 pm »

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.
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LOCK TRUMP UP!
Devils30
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2014, 12:04:08 pm »

The Colorado sample is too white, was 81% white in 2010 and will not be 84% this year.
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SPC
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2014, 12:05:48 pm »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.
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Devils30
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2014, 12:06:26 pm »

22% in 2010 were 65 and older, the 34% 65 and up figure here is absurd.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2014, 12:07:07 pm »

A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.
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