High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 05:05:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH  (Read 4084 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 13, 2014, 04:49:51 AM »
« edited: October 13, 2014, 12:25:01 PM by Tender Branson »
NC (done by HPU)Sad

Thom Tillis – 40 percent
Kay Hagan – 40 percent
Sean Haugh – 7 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 13 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/32memoB.pdf

CO (done by SurveyUSA)Sad

Cory Gardner – 46 percent
Mark Udall – 42 percent
Other – 7 percent
Undecided – 5 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/PDF-Colorado-Political.pdf

NH (done by SurveyUSA)Sad

Jeanne Shaheen – 48 percent
Scott Brown – 46 percent
Undecided – 6 percent

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/PDF-New-Hampshire-Political.pdf

http://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2014/10/hpu-poll-hagan-and-tillis-tied-among-nc-likely-voters
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 05:20:09 AM »
Quick background check:

HPU is relatively new in the polling business. They started in 2010, but didn't release GE polls back then.

In 2012, their final US poll had Obama+3 (Obama won by 4) and Romney+1 in NC (Romney won by 2).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2013/10/19release.pdf
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 08:11:42 AM »
Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 09:42:06 AM »
Quote from: SPC on October 13, 2014, 08:11:42 AM
Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5

I'll go ahead and say Hagan +4, Gardner +3 (Denver post endorsement bump), and Shaheen +6.
Logged
JRP1994
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,048


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 09:58:19 AM »
I'll guess...

Hagan +2
Gardner +2
Shaheen +7
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2014, 10:04:32 AM »
My guess:

NC: Hagan+2
CO: Gardner+1
NH: Shaheen+3
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,451


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2014, 10:10:02 AM »
NC  Hagan +4
CO Even
NH Shaheen +6
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2014, 10:39:24 AM »

I'm thinking this
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 10:40:20 AM »
I predict

Hagan +2
Gardner +5
Shaheen +3
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2014, 11:35:29 AM »
Hagan+3
Udall+1
Shaheen+5
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 11:39:20 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2014, 11:41:28 AM by RogueBeaver »
40/40 in NC, 46/42 Gardner in CO, 48/46 Shaheen in NH.

Enten says CO & NH were actually done by SUSA.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 11:40:54 AM »
Note that the CO and NH polls appear to be done by SUSA.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,607


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 11:41:44 AM »

Quote from: Lief on October 13, 2014, 11:40:54 AM
Note that the CO and NH polls appear to be done by SUSA.

They're suddenly horrible now, right?
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2014, 11:43:07 AM »
Ouch.
Logged
backtored
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
Vatican City State


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2014, 11:44:07 AM »
Maybe you all should stop doubting the GOP's COmentum.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2014, 11:44:40 AM »
Great polls! All aboard train Tillis!
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2014, 11:51:07 AM »
Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2014, 11:55:54 AM »
Quote from: IDS Emperor Maxwell on October 13, 2014, 11:51:07 AM
Udall needs a game changer and quick. Things keep getting better and better for Gardner and worse for Udall.

SUSA only showing Shaheen up by 2 is shocking to me, but I still suspect that Shaheen pulls out of this just fine. If Scott Brown actually managed to win in New Hampshire, I think I should be struck by lightening.

It was recently discovered that Udall has a history of littering.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2014, 11:58:53 AM »
Quote from: SPC on October 13, 2014, 08:11:42 AM
Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5

I was off on each by exactly three points.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2014, 12:01:11 PM »
Udall's at 39/52 disapproval, Hagan 35/54, Shaheen 47/48.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2014, 12:02:51 PM »
A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,988
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2014, 12:04:08 PM »
The Colorado sample is too white, was 81% white in 2010 and will not be 84% this year.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2014, 12:05:48 PM »
Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,988
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2014, 12:06:26 PM »
22% in 2010 were 65 and older, the 34% 65 and up figure here is absurd.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2014, 12:07:07 PM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 13, 2014, 12:02:51 PM
A note to krazen and his little family here, the Colorado poll only has a 6% sample of Hispanics, which is below the actually number that will vote. That makes a big difference.

Gardner will do much better with whites than a mere +6. That makes a big difference.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 15 queries.