High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH (user search)
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  High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH (search mode)
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Author Topic: High Point University/SurveyUSA: Tie in NC, Gardner+4 in CO, Shaheen+2 in NH  (Read 4100 times)
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: October 13, 2014, 08:11:42 AM »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 11:58:53 AM »

Predictions:

Hagan +3
Gardner +1
Shaheen +5

I was off on each by exactly three points.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 12:05:48 PM »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 12:20:46 PM »

Its usually a good sign when the other side starts unskewing the polls.

It's not unskewing like you and your people did in 2012. The demographic samples actually matter, that's why Gallup flubbed up so badly last cycle.

Try again.

I did not unskew in 2012. I admit to doing so in 2010, and having seen the results of that election, learned my lesson not to do so in 2012 or this election.

As others have mentioned before, SurveyUSA has had a tendency to give accurate top-line results despite weird crosstabs. How exactly is unskewing based on racial breakdowns that you happen to disagree with somehow better than unskewing based on partisan breakdowns that you happen to disagree with?
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 12:31:36 PM »

Dems have a history of outperforming polls in this state.

This again?
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