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Author Topic: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead  (Read 1994 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 13, 2014, 08:41:02 am »

Link

Ernst 48
Bailey 45



What a spectacular poll!
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 01:30:55 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
Dereich
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 08:52:50 am »

Obligatory >Rasmussen
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Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 09:12:00 am »

Well, the Republican is leading in this one, so they probably won't take it back like they did with the KS poll. Roll Eyes
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"That's why... we seek the light."

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BeyondTruthAndIdeals
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 09:34:54 am »

Link to come.

Ernst 48
Bailey Braley 45



What a spectacular poll!
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 09:42:10 am »

So, adjusting for the fact that this is Rasmussen, it's tied?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2014, 09:43:09 am »

So, adjusting for the fact that this is Rasmussen, it's tied?

Generally a 3 point lead means its tied anyways.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2014, 12:09:36 pm »

What did their last poll look like?
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2014, 12:36:48 pm »

What did their last poll look like?

A tie. This is absolutely abysmal for soon-to-be-former member of Congress Braley.
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 12:40:02 pm »

Ernst will get at least 48%, that much is evident, but that last couple of points are less likely to materialize. Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2014, 12:42:11 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 12:46:23 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 03:14:10 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 03:33:32 pm »

I guess not enough people went to vote.brucebailey.com

But seriously, I trusted Selzer over Ras even when Ras was giving me a result liked more, so of course I'm trusting Selzer over Ras when it's the opposite.
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2014, 03:35:01 pm »

What did their last poll look like?

A tie. This is absolutely abysmal for soon-to-be-former member of Congress Braley.

Ernst dropped by 5 in the poll that has more weight than 100 Ras polls combined, so not really.
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R2D2
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2014, 04:00:43 pm »

So, adjusting for the fact that this is Rasmussen, it's tied?

Generally a 3 point lead means its tied anyways.

So Braley leads by 3?
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Or Bullock. Or Gabbard. Or Gillibrand. Or Harris. Honestly, anyone but Biden or Booker.
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2014, 08:11:59 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2014, 08:16:02 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. Early votes are blue. Get it through your skull
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2014, 08:17:28 pm »

>Rasmussen
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krazen1211
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2014, 08:22:31 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

So we've gone from 'probably already won' to 'received a good amount of the early vote' for a candidate that has 0 votes and is trailing in almost every poll.

OK!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2014, 08:23:43 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. Early votes are blue. Get it through your skull

And they have to be counted on election night, whether Republican want them to be or not. Republicans rely more on election day vote, so Ernst will have to really clean up to offset the early vote.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2014, 08:30:03 pm »

Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

So we've gone from 'probably already won' to 'received a good amount of the early vote' for a candidate that has 0 votes and is trailing in almost every poll.

OK!


Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 08:33:20 pm by Invisible Obama »Logged

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krazen1211
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2014, 08:40:54 pm »


Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.

That's not how it actually works.
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Invisible Obama
DrScholl
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2014, 08:54:11 pm »


Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.

That's not how it actually works.

Those votes have to be counted on election night along with the rest of the votes.

But, we'll see who wins on election day. If it's Braley (and it will be), I'm going to directly tell you, "I told you so".
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 08:57:52 pm by Invisible Obama »Logged

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krazen1211
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2014, 09:07:40 pm »


Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.

That's not how it actually works.

Those votes have to be counted on election night along with the rest of the votes.

But, we'll see who wins on election day. If it's Braley (and it will be), I'm going to directly tell you, "I told you so".

Very well. In the meantime I suppose you can hang your hat on this PPP poll.
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Joshua
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2014, 09:15:51 pm »

Link to come.

Ernst 48
Bailey Braley 45



What a spectacular poll!

I think that was a crack at Michelle Obama's Braley campaign event.
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