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Author Topic: SD-Harper: Rounds +4 over Weiland, Weiland +10 over Pressler  (Read 1402 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 13, 2014, 09:51:33 am »

http://harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/hp-14-10-sd-memo.pdf?sfvrsn=0

Rounds: 37%
Weiland: 33%
Pressler: 23%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 10:00:00 am »

Confirms SUSA and PPP's results.

BTW: Is this an internal for Rounds because it says "TO: Interested Parties" ?
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SPC
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 10:04:16 am »

BTW: Is this an internal for Rounds because it says "TO: Interested Parties" ?

If so, then Pressler is probably doing better than this. In any case, bad news for Rounds.
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 10:44:43 am »

If I was the South Dakota puppetmaster for the Weiland and Pressler campaigns, at this point I would try to best ensure a non-Republican win by getting Pressler to take just enough Rounds votes to let Weiland edge past.
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RI
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 10:44:47 am »

BTW: Is this an internal for Rounds because it says "TO: Interested Parties" ?

I don't think so. On Harper's website, they usually post if they did the poll on behalf of someone. They didn't list anyone for this one.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 10:47:17 am by realisticidealist »Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2014, 11:37:42 am »

Go Weiland! Smiley
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2014, 12:07:04 pm »

Fascinating.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2014, 12:11:44 pm »

What would this race look like if SHS or Brendan Johnson had taken the plunge?

Also, did they also do two-way matchups?
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 12:38:51 pm »

This definitely confirms that Rounds is in trouble. However, this is exactly what I was afraid of: We're going to get a series of polls showing Weiland and Pressler flipping back and forth for 2nd place. Since neither one is going to drop out, the best chance of beating Rounds is for one of them to cement their position as the clear alternative, causing whoever is viewed as being in third place to start hemorrhaging supporters in the last week of the campaign. As long as both Weiland and Pressler seem viable, they'll keep on splitting the vote right down the middle, and Rounds will probably squeak by.
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Pope Michael Bolton
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2014, 12:48:54 pm »

Harper is a Republican firm; I thought this was well-known.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 01:00:36 pm »

Weiland should win.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 01:05:48 pm by OC »Logged
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 01:04:00 pm »

Eriland eill kerp us ftom losing senatr.

Post of the Century
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The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 01:21:08 pm »

I don't trust Harper. I have a feeling they're showing Weiland doing so well to encourage him not to drop out, and therefore assure Rounds a plurality win. It reminds me of when PPP showed Akin ahead after his legitimate rape comment. I respect PPP, but that poll was clearly garbage designed to encourage Akin to stay in, and soured my views on them for a while.

Regardless, this race is clearly on the board now.  Who would've thought that Kansas and South Dakota could end up saving the Democratic Senate majority?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2014, 01:29:49 pm »

Never underestimate ND and SD electing Dem senators. 2012.
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Joshua
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2014, 02:25:07 pm »

Never underestimate ND and SD electing Dem senators. 2012.

Technically Republicans have only won two senate elections in South Dakota since 1990 and ONE senate election in North Dakota since 1980.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2014, 04:29:03 pm »

My hunch is that the Pubs have a materially higher chance of blowing this seat, than the Kansas one. The dynamics are just different. We shall see what the Pub emergency infusion of cash into the race does to the numbers, if anything. Pub money tearing the opponents down, where little has been spent before, has move of a potential delta function, than a billion dollars from the Dems into this race. That is because the Dem leadership is unpopular in the state at the moment - very unpopular.
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2014, 04:32:38 pm »

Never underestimate ND and SD electing Dem senators. 2012.

Technically Republicans have only won two senate elections in South Dakota since 1990 and ONE senate election in North Dakota since 1980.

Technically only one Democrat has ever been elected Senator from Vermont. Technically only one Republican has been elected Senator from Louisiana since reconstruction.
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