Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 21, 2019, 05:03:00 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | | | |-+  KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.  (Read 2963 times)
Senator Cris
Cris
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,541
Italy



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 13, 2014, 02:28:21 pm »

Orman (I) 44%
Roberts (R) 41%
Batson (L) 5%

Orman (I) 46%
Roberts (R) 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KS_1012118.pdf
Logged
Senator Cris
Cris
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,541
Italy



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 02:29:08 pm »

Quote
Roberts has gained 7 pts on Orman bc GOP is coming back around- led 57/31 with Republicans in September, now 62/25.
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,142
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 02:30:00 pm »

Gross
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,705


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 02:34:18 pm »

Orman led by seven in the last PPP poll.

Let's get real, folks: Roberts will win. The vast majority of you won't look as foolish if you just come around, admit you were wrong earlier and concede that the seat will be a GOP hold.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,498
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 02:36:50 pm »

What Phil said.
Logged
Maistre
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 409
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2014, 02:37:26 pm »

Img
Logged
King Francis I
windjammer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,648
France


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2014, 02:39:32 pm »

What Phil said.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,875
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2014, 02:47:59 pm »

Better chance the GOP wins here than Colorado
Logged
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,082
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 02:51:31 pm »

I can't believe Kansas is going to be the state to watch on election night.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2014, 03:07:51 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,712
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 03:12:51 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.
Logged
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,709
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 03:26:54 pm »

Orman led by seven in the last PPP poll.

Let's get real, folks: Roberts will win. The vast majority of you won't look as foolish if you just come around, admit you were wrong earlier and concede that the seat will be a GOP hold.
Not willing to concede that yet, but I will return the race to Toss-Up from Leans I. You may get your wish after all.....


Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 03:45:59 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2014, 03:47:12 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.
Logged
Economically Anxious Bush, Romney, Trump, Bernie Voter
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,686
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2014, 03:47:50 pm »

Closer than expected, but Orman's still got this.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,189
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.87, S: -6.96

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2014, 03:59:38 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2014, 04:02:32 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread

Iowa is SUPPOSED to be competitive, it's a purple state. Plus there's no incumbent. It would be comparable if Democrats were cheering that Chris Coons was "only trailing" Kevin Wade by 3 points.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38,134
Samoa


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2014, 04:21:37 pm »

Hi there px. You know, I don't make too many predictions (as to the forumites who do that incessantly, I tend to view that more a function of the enthusiasm of youth, and well, predictions is the essence of the site, so I don't mind it much but whatever), particularly when they are against the grain (a fool's errand really). When I do, there is a certain reasoning behind it. I judged Orman more or less just another pretty face, with not much there behind it, as he attempted his little tight wire aerial act. The odds were he was going to fall off. Unlike Orman, I like to think that I am not entirely just another pretty face you know. Have a nice day.

But look at the upside, px. Given my doubling down here, if the winds shift and Orman wins, you will savor it all the more. Cheers.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2014, 04:26:24 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread

Iowa is SUPPOSED to be competitive, it's a purple state. Plus there's no incumbent. It would be comparable if Democrats were cheering that Chris Coons was "only trailing" Kevin Wade by 3 points.

It's a big shift from the last PPP poll, which had Orman up by 10. Granted, Roberts is still in a really terrible place electorally (an incumbent behind and only at 41%), but the ground is shifting toward his favor (mainly because Republicans are coming home).
Logged
Representative Joe Mad
Joe Mad
Full Member
***
Posts: 191


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2014, 05:19:48 pm »

Yea, I'll hold out hope but I feel like this might not be Orman's in the end.  A shame too.  I admittedly would prefer Orman, and it'd be really cool to see him win simply for the sake of having another independent in the senate.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,712
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2014, 05:24:04 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38,134
Samoa


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2014, 05:30:09 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?

Of course it is in this context. The slope up when where one is tends to increase as you close the gap. That is of course related to fundamentals. Booker in NJ has lost a ton of points in lead, a rather steep decline. Will he lose based on extrapolations? Of course not. Now Virginia, where the same thing is happening, with different fundamentals, is a tad more interesting. Smiley
Logged
Recalcuate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 444


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2014, 06:12:15 pm »

Orman led by seven in the last PPP poll.

Let's get real, folks: Roberts will win. The vast majority of you won't look as foolish if you just come around, admit you were wrong earlier and concede that the seat will be a GOP hold.

A further narrowing wouldn't shock me, either. It seems like the healing process has begun for the GOP after a divisive primary and the Republicans are bringing out the big guns in an attempt to stabilize the state as insurance to get to 51.

The wild card, of course, is that Roberts is running against an independent and not a Democrat and the Democrat is gone. It will be interesting to see how the dynamics will work out here with Orman not having the Democrat nameplate.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,021
Latvia


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2014, 06:40:04 pm »


My sincerest apologies for ever doubting him (although in my defense, I did not question the outcome so much as his certainty)
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2014, 06:44:19 pm »

Orman will still win. LOL at those listening to the Pennsylvania Republican.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines