CO-SUSA (Denver Post): Gardner +2

[Devils30]

Now Udall is winning the white vote and losing hispanics! Seriously, these Colorado polls have some big time questions that only election night will answer.

[Devils30]

if the electorate is 79% white and assume 3rd parties get around 3%, then the GOP needs something like this for a 1% win:

White: 54-43 R (79%)
Hisp: 64-33 D    (14%)
AA: 87-10 D      (3%)
Other/Asian: 59-38 D (4%)

If Hispanics go 67-30 D then it's basically a dead heat, a complete tossup with around 48.5 each. If Udall got anywhere near the 75% Obama got in 2012 then it's over and he wins by around 2%. This is assuming the "other" category doesn't break further for Dems.

If whites only go 52-45 R then it's going to be a 2% or so Udall win even with the first figures I mentioned. Hispanics are tough to poll and were probably the reason Obama won Colorado by much more than expected and pulled out Florida despite polls saying otherwise. Not saying Udall will win, just that you can't discount it.

[Devils30]

Gardners 1.8 point lead in RCP average is where the race should be looked at. Just considering that Obama beat the RCP by 4.5 and Bennett beat it by about the same in 2010 should keep some Rs nervous. Things like mail in voting and problems polling Hispanics mean that we really won't know for 21 more days and nor should we be surprised if Udall pulls it out (or if gardner wins by 3).

[Devils30]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/upshot/two-polls-that-highlight-the-challenges-of-polling.html?abt=0002&abg=1

Doesn't exactly seem like these polling issues from 2010, 2012 have been corrected one bit.