The DSCC pulls out of Kentucky

[Whacker77]

According to multiple media sources, the DSCC has stopped advertising in Kentucky and has not reserved any time between now an election day.  This news comes at the worst possible time for Alison Grimes.  For the past five days, she's had to deal with the fallout from her non-answer as to whether she voted for Obama.  In today's White House press briefing, national reporters and Josh Earnest laughed at Grimes' contention about right to privacy and the sanctity of the ballot box.

If you check my comment history, I wrote this past summer why I thought it was highly unlikely Grimes would defeat McConnell.  Obama's low popularity and the sixth year itch aside, the changing voting patterns of eastern KY made it more than a little daunting for her to make up the difference with huge showings in Louisville and Lexington.  And just yesterday, local black leaders in west Louisville said Grimes' refusal to say whether she voted for Obama could depress turnout in predominantly black areas.

Having said all that, don't look for a blowout win by McConnell unless Grimes commits another self inflicted wound.  McConnell's own low popularity remains a drag for him.  The best guess, and I have spoken to a lobbyist or two in the area who work the halls of Frankfort, is McConnell wins by 4-6 points.  In fact, many in Frankfort have placed the over/under at 5 points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/14/democrats-are-pulling-out-of-the-kentucky-senate-race-heres-why-thats-important/

[ElectionsGuy]

Goodbye Senator Grimes

[Eraserhead]

Hmm, their internals must be bad because the recent public polls have all been very close.

I think this may be a mistake personally.

[IceSpear]

Hmm, their internals must be bad because the recent public polls have all been very close.

I think this may be a mistake personally.

Agreed. I hope they're not prioritizing incumbents over her even if they have a lower chance of actually winning (like Pryor).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Naw, they know they have a better shot in AK/SD CO/KS and IA/NC to keep majority.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Shame. I would've loved to see McConnell go down.

[KCDem]

Senate Majority Pac will continue to play here and Grimes has the resources to make turtle soup.

[KCDem]

The DSCC has just invested $300k in ground game, obviously "pulling out"

[Tender Branson]

The people at the DSCC are clearly nuts. This is a winnable race.

Grimes' internal pollster also said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh wow. You mean to tell me Grimes' network is saying she can still win? Must be true then!

[Tender Branson]

Oh wow. You mean to tell me Grimes' network is saying she can still win? Must be true then!

It's probably true yeah. Mellman is one of the best internal pollsters out there after all.

But if the morons at the DSCC think they know it better than Mellman and SUSA, it's their choice ... to me it seems they are just throwing away a winnable race.

[Adam Griffin]

They did this so that they could do this.

[Tender Branson]

They did this so that they could do this.

Yeah, I know.

But if they pulled out of Michigan earlier, instead of spending 10 Mio. on an already won race, they could invest in both KY and GA now. A lot more.

[KCDem]

They did this so that they could do this.

Yeah, I know.

But if they pulled out of Michigan earlier, instead of spending 10 Mio. on an already won race, they could invest in both KY and GA now. A lot more.

Both Nunn and Grimes will have the firepower to compete in the home stretch.

[Tender Branson]

They did this so that they could do this.

Yeah, I know.

But if they pulled out of Michigan earlier, instead of spending 10 Mio. on an already won race, they could invest in both KY and GA now. A lot more.

Both Nunn and Grimes will have the firepower to compete in the home stretch.

Indeed:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

4.4 Mio. $ to spend for the final month is not bad.

[Bacon King]

The DSCC pulled out because Mitch's SuperPAC had just bought over $2 million worth of ad time in the preceding 24 hours

[Grumpier Than Thou]

The DSCC pulled out because Mitch's SuperPAC had just bought over $2 million worth of ad time in the preceding 24 hours

Ew.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The DSCC might be smarter than it appeared - if we're lucky...

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/15/no-dscc-pull-kentucky-senate-race-abandon-alison-lundergan-grimes.html

[New_Conservative]

She performed well in the last debate

[Mehmentum]

The DSCC might be smarter than it appeared - if we're lucky...

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/15/no-dscc-pull-kentucky-senate-race-abandon-alison-lundergan-grimes.html

I'd like to believe that, but that article is 100% partisan spin.

[IceSpear]

They did this so that they could do this.

But Grimes doesn't need to hit 50 to win.

[Whacker77]

Some of these comments are interesting to read.  First, I'm not sure a PoliticsUSA article is proof of much of anything other than the Internet is full of all kinds of unusual things.  Yes, the DSCC transferred $300,000 to the Grimes campaign, but that's hardly the same as the $1.5 million in the TV advertising they spent in the first 10 days of the month.  And that's hardly the same as the combined $4 million or so McConnell and his Super Pac will spend.

Second, I think the high quality polling done by the DSCC is a little better than an automated robopoll from Survey USA that nearly every observer, partial and impartial, has deemed to be an outlier.  If the race was really as close as Survey USA suggested, the DSCC and Senate Majority Pac wouldn't be dark in the state.  On top of that, the DSCC knew the move would create the impression they were giving up on Grimes and they still did it.  To me, that, more than anything, speaks volumes about the race.

Third, Grimes and her staff, in comments to the local press, have given every indictation she is behind.  Grimes has recently begun to use the phrase "McConnell and his henchmen" and a memo released by the campaign noted they were "in posiiton to finish" strong, but only referenced aspects from the SUSA poll that has widely been seen as an outlier.  I don't think any of that, in conjunction with losing both the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC, suggests a lot of confidence.

Don't get me wrong.  I don't think this race is over.  In fact, SUSA is in the field conducting another poll and I expect it will show a Grimes lead or a very close race.  I say that because SUSA has been the only nonpartisan pollster in the RCP average to show Grimes ahead so why stop now.  In a briefing the other day, the NRSC said confidently McConnell would get 53%, but noted no race, in the era of the Super Pac, is ever over.  And in my opinion, sitting at 53% is a good place, but Grimes' would only need to shave a few points of McConnell's standing to put her in a near tie.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think that if Grimes wins Jefferson County by at least 20 points, she wins. She just might do it.

[Mr. Illini]

Those of you who don't think the DSCC knows what they are doing need to calm down. To be honest, the information we get on the status of these races is just a snapshot of what they are seeing and also much more likely to be inaccurate. Both them and the DCCC have appeared to commit to consolidating their money into the more winnable races rather than spreading themselves too thin.