The DSCC pulls out of Kentucky

[Whacker77]

According to multiple media sources, the DSCC has stopped advertising in Kentucky and has not reserved any time between now an election day.  This news comes at the worst possible time for Alison Grimes.  For the past five days, she's had to deal with the fallout from her non-answer as to whether she voted for Obama.  In today's White House press briefing, national reporters and Josh Earnest laughed at Grimes' contention about right to privacy and the sanctity of the ballot box.

If you check my comment history, I wrote this past summer why I thought it was highly unlikely Grimes would defeat McConnell.  Obama's low popularity and the sixth year itch aside, the changing voting patterns of eastern KY made it more than a little daunting for her to make up the difference with huge showings in Louisville and Lexington.  And just yesterday, local black leaders in west Louisville said Grimes' refusal to say whether she voted for Obama could depress turnout in predominantly black areas.

Having said all that, don't look for a blowout win by McConnell unless Grimes commits another self inflicted wound.  McConnell's own low popularity remains a drag for him.  The best guess, and I have spoken to a lobbyist or two in the area who work the halls of Frankfort, is McConnell wins by 4-6 points.  In fact, many in Frankfort have placed the over/under at 5 points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/14/democrats-are-pulling-out-of-the-kentucky-senate-race-heres-why-thats-important/

[Whacker77]

Some of these comments are interesting to read.  First, I'm not sure a PoliticsUSA article is proof of much of anything other than the Internet is full of all kinds of unusual things.  Yes, the DSCC transferred $300,000 to the Grimes campaign, but that's hardly the same as the $1.5 million in the TV advertising they spent in the first 10 days of the month.  And that's hardly the same as the combined $4 million or so McConnell and his Super Pac will spend.

Second, I think the high quality polling done by the DSCC is a little better than an automated robopoll from Survey USA that nearly every observer, partial and impartial, has deemed to be an outlier.  If the race was really as close as Survey USA suggested, the DSCC and Senate Majority Pac wouldn't be dark in the state.  On top of that, the DSCC knew the move would create the impression they were giving up on Grimes and they still did it.  To me, that, more than anything, speaks volumes about the race.

Third, Grimes and her staff, in comments to the local press, have given every indictation she is behind.  Grimes has recently begun to use the phrase "McConnell and his henchmen" and a memo released by the campaign noted they were "in posiiton to finish" strong, but only referenced aspects from the SUSA poll that has widely been seen as an outlier.  I don't think any of that, in conjunction with losing both the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC, suggests a lot of confidence.

Don't get me wrong.  I don't think this race is over.  In fact, SUSA is in the field conducting another poll and I expect it will show a Grimes lead or a very close race.  I say that because SUSA has been the only nonpartisan pollster in the RCP average to show Grimes ahead so why stop now.  In a briefing the other day, the NRSC said confidently McConnell would get 53%, but noted no race, in the era of the Super Pac, is ever over.  And in my opinion, sitting at 53% is a good place, but Grimes' would only need to shave a few points of McConnell's standing to put her in a near tie.