Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 18, 2019, 10:22:15 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | | | |-+  IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2  (Read 2351 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 15, 2014, 06:20:29 am »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-10-13

Summary: D: 45%, R: 47%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
JRP1994
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,619


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 06:31:03 am »

Reversion to the mean.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2014, 06:32:38 am »

Something is wrong with the Braley numbers, they are 2% too low.

Quinnipiac shows that the (weighted) sample is 30% D, 29% R and 41% I.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia10152014_demos_Ihst243bn.pdf

Ernst wins Republicans 95-2.

Braley wins Democrats 89-7.

Braley wins Indies 48-43.

...

Which means both Ernst and Braley have 47% overall if my math skills are not all too bad.

Could be a rounding issue though.
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,392


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2014, 07:04:48 am »

Castrated.
Logged
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27,962
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2014, 07:36:33 am »

This race pisses me off so much.
Logged



Or Bullock. Or Gabbard. Or Gillibrand. Or Harris. Honestly, anyone but Biden or Booker.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,705


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2014, 07:44:27 am »

"Something is wrong with the Braley numbers: he's losing."
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2014, 07:45:43 am »

Lol at the unskewing.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,096
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2014, 09:20:19 am »

This race pisses me off so much.
Logged

Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,950
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2014, 09:28:27 am »


Not as much as Colorado though.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2014, 09:29:59 am by Antonio V »Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2014, 10:00:54 am »

Lol at the unskewing.
Logged

I feel liberal and around conservatives and conservative around liberals. Seems I cant win.
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,872
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2014, 10:01:58 am »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,486
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2014, 10:03:44 am »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,096
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2014, 10:12:15 am »


Both piss me off.
Logged

Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,767
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2014, 10:16:11 am »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.
Logged

LOCK TRUMP UP!
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2014, 10:21:56 am »

Braley has the momentum.
Logged

fuck nazis
Recalcuate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 444


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2014, 11:06:25 am »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Huh? The +6 result was likely overstated. The actual state of this race seems consistent. Ernst with a very slight lead. If anything, the poll results have been relatively static over the past few weeks.
Logged

2014 Predictions
Senate Misses: NC
Governor Misses: CO, KS, IL, FL, MD
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2014, 11:33:10 am »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.


Sure, I totally agree with that. Braley could turn it all around and win. 1-2 points is a statistical tie.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2014, 12:26:51 pm »

Looks like Suffolk/USAToday will release a new IA poll as well in 30 minutes.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,694
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2014, 03:07:53 pm »

Logged





Mr. Reactionary ... a well-known crypto-fascist
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,694
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2014, 03:17:58 pm »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...
Logged





Mr. Reactionary ... a well-known crypto-fascist
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,767
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2014, 03:45:07 pm »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.
Logged

LOCK TRUMP UP!
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,774
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2014, 05:32:10 pm »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.

Or......
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
Logged
KCDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,932


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2014, 07:49:38 pm »

Junk poll!
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,278
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2014, 08:10:24 pm »

Braley has the momentum.

Clearly. Getting very tempted to flip this one on my map but I'll hold off for now.
Logged

Update lives again on Atlas After Dark. PM me for info.
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 44,993


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2014, 09:28:55 pm »


The good news for Colorado, is that we have a good chance even if we're trailing in the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines