IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
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  IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
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Author Topic: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2  (Read 3074 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 15, 2014, 06:20:29 AM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-10-13

Summary: D: 45%, R: 47%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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JRP1994
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 06:31:03 AM »

Reversion to the mean.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2014, 06:32:38 AM »

Something is wrong with the Braley numbers, they are 2% too low.

Quinnipiac shows that the (weighted) sample is 30% D, 29% R and 41% I.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia10152014_demos_Ihst243bn.pdf

Ernst wins Republicans 95-2.

Braley wins Democrats 89-7.

Braley wins Indies 48-43.

...

Which means both Ernst and Braley have 47% overall if my math skills are not all too bad.

Could be a rounding issue though.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2014, 07:04:48 AM »

Castrated.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2014, 07:36:33 AM »

This race pisses me off so much.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2014, 07:44:27 AM »

"Something is wrong with the Braley numbers: he's losing."
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2014, 07:45:43 AM »

Lol at the unskewing.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2014, 09:20:19 AM »

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2014, 09:28:27 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2014, 09:29:59 AM by Antonio V »


Not as much as Colorado though.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2014, 10:00:54 AM »

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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2014, 10:01:58 AM »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2014, 10:03:44 AM »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.
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dmmidmi
dmwestmi
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2014, 10:12:15 AM »


Both piss me off.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2014, 10:16:11 AM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2014, 10:21:56 AM »

Braley has the momentum.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2014, 11:06:25 AM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Huh? The +6 result was likely overstated. The actual state of this race seems consistent. Ernst with a very slight lead. If anything, the poll results have been relatively static over the past few weeks.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2014, 11:33:10 AM »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.


Sure, I totally agree with that. Braley could turn it all around and win. 1-2 points is a statistical tie.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2014, 12:26:51 PM »

Looks like Suffolk/USAToday will release a new IA poll as well in 30 minutes.
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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2014, 03:07:53 PM »

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Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2014, 03:17:58 PM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2014, 03:45:07 PM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2014, 05:32:10 PM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.

Or......
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
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KCDem
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2014, 07:49:38 PM »

Junk poll!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2014, 08:10:24 PM »


Clearly. Getting very tempted to flip this one on my map but I'll hold off for now.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2014, 09:28:55 PM »


The good news for Colorado, is that we have a good chance even if we're trailing in the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html
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