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  GA-SUSA: Nunn+3
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Author Topic: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3  (Read 3966 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 15, 2014, 06:38:26 am »

48-45-3 Nunn/Perdue/Swafford

Quote
For the first time, Michelle Nunn leads the race for Georgia's Senate seat.

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/15/exclusive-poll-nunn-leads-senate-race-by-3/17239215
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 06:38:54 am »

Beat me by fifteen seconds, Tender. Tongue



DOMINATING!
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morgieb
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2014, 06:40:46 am »
« Edited: October 15, 2014, 06:43:12 am by morgieb »

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2014, 06:40:49 am »

Beat me by fifteen seconds, Tender. Tongue



DOMINATING!

You need to be even faster with your posting next time ... Tongue Wink
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2014, 06:51:17 am »

This seat is going to fall.

http://youtu.be/avcS0aYJ2a8?t=15s


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2014, 06:53:50 am »

No wonder the Republicans in GA are pulling all strings to suppress the vote (getting rid of early voting locations, Sunday voting, not processing voter registration forms, etc).

Republicans fear that people might actually go out and vote (and not for them).
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2014, 06:56:17 am »

Us Dems really needed this bit of good news.  Nunn would need to win 1/2 of undecideds to get to 50%.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2014, 07:16:50 am »

Damn, that trend:

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20PETE20
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2014, 07:35:48 am »

Glorious news!
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2014, 08:36:39 am »

Glorious news!

News to be taken with a grain of salt. Just like the "news" that Brown is ahead in New Hampshire. Until there's confirmation by multiple pollsters, this just shows that the race is closing.

It's still in runoff territory and still Perdue's to lose. Much like it's Shaheen's to lose in New Hampshire.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2014, 09:03:31 am »

Here are the crosstabs.

Crosstabs by gender: 51/49 female. Should be 55/45 female. Net effect is 1 point in under/over-representation for Democratic and Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by race: 61% white, 27% black, 7% latino, 5% asian. Should be more like 63% white, 28% black, 8% latino, 1% asian. Whites and Asians lean more Republican; Blacks and Latinos lean more Democratic. Net effect is 2.5 points in terms of under/over-representation for Democratic & Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by region: I've never known what exactly defines the SUSA poll regions. They have three: "Northwest", "Atlanta", and "South and East", each of which comprise about 1/3 of their polling sizes. Any definition of "Northwest", however, shouldn't be close to being competitive, but this poll has it 48/40 Deal and 48/42 Perdue. Based on past SUSA polls, it would seem that the movement toward Dems in these polls is predominantly coming from here - they're actually polling better in the northern part of the state outside of Atlanta than in the southern part, which seems strange. Still, I don't know what their exact boundaries are and so I can't be sure about any skewing here.

All in all, I don't think this poll has a Democratic bias - unless those regions are skewed more than I can tell - and may even be slightly favorable as a whole to the Republicans.
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SPC
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2014, 09:43:54 am »

A bit curious when Nunn's most friendly public pollster has the race tied and PPP gives Perdue a two-point lead. However, given Perdue's gaffe its not implausible that there has been real movement in this race. Nevertheless, Nunn still needs to win by 3-5% to avoid a runoff, in which her best chance is if control of the Senate is already decided on Election Night (in other words, it would be futile for Democrats to carve out a victory map that includes Georgia). Nevertheless, if Nunn truly has momentum that the increased time until Election Day might mitigate the effects of lower turnout.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2014, 10:00:21 am »

Don't go celebrating. RCP has Perdue up still and even muh PPP has Perdue up. This is just as much a game changer as that Brown poll
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2014, 10:06:55 am »

I shed a single tear.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2014, 10:13:59 am »

It looks as if the momentum is shifting toward Nunn and SurveyUSA has picked it up.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2014, 10:20:07 am »

Georgia is winnable. Let's just hope Nunn can cross 50% on election night.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2014, 11:03:31 am »

Georgia is winnable. Let's just hope Nunn can cross 50% on election night.

Let's not and say we did.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2014, 01:37:12 pm »

If this is confirmed....
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Devils30
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2014, 01:46:42 pm »

Would be something if the Dems win GA, NC and lose CO, IA
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Castro
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2014, 01:57:46 pm »

Would be something if the Dems win GA, NC and lose CO, IA

They would still lose the senate though
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2014, 01:59:17 pm »

Would be something if the Dems win GA, NC and lose CO, IA

In all fairness, Tillis is a clusterf(inks), Perdue has always been gaffe-prone, and Braley makes Tillis look like Cory Gardner.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2014, 02:10:05 pm »

Would be something if the Dems win GA, NC and lose CO, IA

Democrats lost Illinois and Ohio, but won Indiana and North Carolina in 1998.
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Devils30
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2014, 02:32:18 pm »

Just at the beginning of the cycle it seemed odd we would get a GOP senate with wins in IA, CO and losses in NC, GA. It does matter because 2016 becomes a Democratic lock if its 52 R or less but much tougher if they get to 54 or above.
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Devils30
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2014, 02:33:55 pm »

I think Nunn is more likely to win a runoff if the GOP captures the senate on election day. If it's to decide the Senate then no way but Perdue isn't terribly likable and she's a moderate.
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Chance92
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2014, 02:35:03 pm »

Here's hoping that outsourcing gaffe cremates Perdue's campaign for good.
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