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  GA-SUSA: Nunn+3
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Author Topic: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3  (Read 3969 times)
Bacon King
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« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2014, 02:38:12 pm »

Here are the crosstabs.

Crosstabs by gender: 51/49 female. Should be 55/45 female. Net effect is 1 point in under/over-representation for Democratic and Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by race: 61% white, 27% black, 7% latino, 5% asian. Should be more like 63% white, 28% black, 8% latino, 1% asian. Whites and Asians lean more Republican; Blacks and Latinos lean more Democratic. Net effect is 2.5 points in terms of under/over-representation for Democratic & Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by region: I've never known what exactly defines the SUSA poll regions. They have three: "Northwest", "Atlanta", and "South and East", each of which comprise about 1/3 of their polling sizes. Any definition of "Northwest", however, shouldn't be close to being competitive, but this poll has it 48/40 Deal and 48/42 Perdue. Based on past SUSA polls, it would seem that the movement toward Dems in these polls is predominantly coming from here - they're actually polling better in the northern part of the state outside of Atlanta than in the southern part, which seems strange. Still, I don't know what their exact boundaries are and so I can't be sure about any skewing here.

All in all, I don't think this poll has a Democratic bias - unless those regions are skewed more than I can tell - and may even be slightly favorable as a whole to the Republicans.

Purple heart your analysis adam

here's SUSA's regions btw:

http://www.surveyusa.com/SUSA_Regional_Definitions_As_Of_081029.htm

Northwest Georgia is so big that apparently even I live there
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Devils30
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« Reply #26 on: October 15, 2014, 02:48:48 pm »

This country needs more like Nunn, Hagan, Kirk and Collins in the Senate. Would solve a lot of problems.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #27 on: October 15, 2014, 03:08:30 pm »

Here are SUSA's GA regions; for future reference I'll put some demographic info on them in the megathread

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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #28 on: October 15, 2014, 04:36:38 pm »

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jfern
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« Reply #29 on: October 15, 2014, 04:54:49 pm »

So out of MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, AK, IA, CO, and GA,  GA looks the best? LOL.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #30 on: October 15, 2014, 05:14:17 pm »

So out of MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, AK, IA, CO, and GA,  GA looks the best? LOL.
It would, except that there's that thing called a runoff....
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chrisras
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« Reply #31 on: October 15, 2014, 05:53:20 pm »

She is going to win this race.  I think of Perdue as the Bruce Brailey of Georgia.  He's a terrible candidate and she is a good candidate.  I think she'll win.
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KCDem
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« Reply #32 on: October 15, 2014, 07:49:09 pm »

So out of MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, AK, IA, CO, and GA,  GA looks the best? LOL.
It would, except that there's that thing called a runoff....

Which she will avoid by taking more than 50% of the vote on November 4.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #33 on: October 15, 2014, 08:19:46 pm »

It's the Zell Miller bump!
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Castro
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« Reply #34 on: October 15, 2014, 11:42:31 pm »

It's the Zell Miller bump!

With that kind of delay, the Terrorism/Outsourcing bump should kick in around Election Day Smiley
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #35 on: October 16, 2014, 12:10:29 pm »

So out of MT, WV, SD, AR, LA, AK, IA, CO, and GA,  GA looks the best? LOL.
It would, except that there's that thing called a runoff....

Which she will avoid by taking more than 50% of the vote on November 4.

Is this a junk poll?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #36 on: October 16, 2014, 03:16:18 pm »

The electorate in GA, NC, VA, LA where Dems are doing quite well is more diverse, or differently diverse (large African-American population as opposed to more Latino or Native American), than in all the states where Dems are doing relatively poorly this year.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2014, 05:53:02 pm »

The electorate in GA, NC, VA, LA where Dems are doing quite well is more diverse, or differently diverse (large African-American population as opposed to more Latino or Native American), than in all the states where Dems are doing relatively poorly this year.

Relatively, sure, but Dems are doing just fine in Arkansas, Kentucky and Kansas (an Indy, but still).
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