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Author Topic: KS: Momouth: Tie at 46%  (Read 1448 times)
Miles
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« on: October 20, 2014, 10:37:18 am »
« edited: October 20, 2014, 10:40:30 am by Miles »

Report.

Roberts (R)- 46%
Orman (I)- 46%
Other- 3%
Not sure- 5%

Roberts is up to winning 76% of Republicans. Orman is at 81% with Dems and still winning Indies 60/32.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2014, 10:38:15 am »

Hang in there Orman!
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KCDem
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2014, 10:42:56 am »

Monmouth can barely poll NJ, let alone Kansas.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2014, 10:44:40 am »

Monmouth can barely poll NJ, let alone Kansas.

But muh Gregory the Gallant?
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KCDem
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2014, 10:46:40 am »

Monmouth can barely poll NJ, let alone Kansas.

But muh Gregory the Gallant?

Gregory the Smiser needs to nuke the Fossil on the airwaves.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2014, 10:47:45 am »

Monmouth can barely poll NJ, let alone Kansas.

This seems in line with the other polls. Republicans are coming home to Roberts after a nasty primary. I wouldn't be shocked if Roberts pulls it out at the end.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2014, 11:24:00 am »

If Orman can just bring some of those Democrats home and hold his ground with Republicans... Wink 
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SPC
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2014, 11:36:59 am »

I wrote this almost eight days ago. Looks like a 5% Roberts victory is where we are headed.

If you run a plot of Roberts's and Orman's absolute polling numbers with the date that the poll was taken, you notice that Orman's numbers have not budged from ~46% since Taylor's withdrawal from the race, whereas Roberts has been gaining a percentage point roughly every four days. This trend exists even if you omit the anomalous FOX poll from the sample. From a pure momentum standpoint, Roberts is on track to win this race by around 5 points.

While momentum is overrated as a metric of one-on-one races, it could be indicative of a trend of the undecided voters, especially since it seems to be solely a movement of undecideds toward the Roberts camp. Given that Orman currently leads by roughly 2 points, I will split the difference and say Roberts wins this by a percentage point.
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Queen Liz <3
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2014, 12:23:44 pm »

Greg Orman is not out of it yet. I have a gut feeling that he'll win.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2014, 01:25:20 pm »

Looks like Orman is doing worse than Davis mainly because his support among Democrats isn't as high.

Democrats: Davis 91-9, Orman 81-14
Independents: Davis 62-31, Orman 60-32
Republicans: Davis 17-77, Orman 14-76

Once Gregory the Gallant inevitably consolidates the Democrats, he will have a slight lead. And the DC Fossil will be sent back to Oz (i.e. DC).
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2014, 01:49:34 pm »

There is some good news for Orman in this poll.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2014, 02:00:13 pm »

Orman is tied or leading in the polls = Robert is going to win

this forum is weird sometimes.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2014, 09:23:31 am »

Tilt R, IMO. Undecideds will break hard for the non-Independent candidate.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2014, 09:27:52 pm »


That's surprisingly low, a margin of +8 among a state that usually votes for the Republican by 20 points or more.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2014, 10:48:48 pm »


That's surprisingly low, a margin of +8 among a state that usually votes for the Republican by 20 points or more.

It would probably be higher if "no difference" wasn't an option.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2014, 01:19:14 am »
« Edited: October 22, 2014, 01:21:31 am by Recalcuate »

Orman is tied or leading in the polls = Robert is going to win

this forum is weird sometimes.

If you dig into the polls a little deeper, the problem for Orman is that the majority of the vote that remains to be captured are likely the pissed off Wolf people that think Roberts is too much of a RINO (which he really isn't).

76% is not very good for an incumbent Republican candidate amongst his own party. You'd figure most of that vote would eventually come home.

The best Orman can hope for is that those folks stay out of the race. Let's face it -- the Tea Party wing of the Republican party is not going to vote for the faux-Independent/Democrat, who is really a liberal at heart.

I think that's why a lot of folks on here think that the third Senator from Virginia is going to ultimately prevail.

It's also a weird dynamic having no Democrat in this race. Traditionally Independent candidates lose steam in three-party races and aren't really viable in most D vs. I or R vs. I races.

I can't really remember a two-party R vs. I or D vs. I race that was competitive that didn't involve an incumbent I, so who knows what will happen with Orman's support down the stretch. Not having a viable Democrat as a choice here kind of messes with conventional thought.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2014, 10:17:20 am »

For the 3rd time, Rasmussen has now announced a new Kansas poll for noon today.

The previous 2 were not released (well, the 1st one was but then deleted - while the other was announced but not released).

Let's see if they release this one.
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