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  NC: PPP: Hagan +3
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Author Topic: NC: PPP: Hagan +3  (Read 4507 times)
Dr. RI
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« on: October 20, 2014, 10:50:22 am »

Hagan 46, Tillis 43.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2014, 10:51:21 am »

Dominating! Cheesy
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2014, 10:53:30 am »

More like it.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2014, 10:58:04 am »

Also 47/44 without Haugh.

Better than I expected for Hagan. I thought she'd only be up 1-2.

Women are twice as likely than men to be undecided; good sign for Hagan if true.
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2014, 11:00:45 am »

As if we needed it, more confirmation that Hagan is leading and Gravis is trash.
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KCDem
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2014, 11:02:10 am »

Excellent news!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2014, 11:08:24 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2014, 11:09:34 am »

This seems more appropriate
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2014, 11:19:37 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.
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KCDem
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2014, 11:22:22 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Your faux-independent trolling is unappreciated. Go back to whatever fracking crevice you came out of.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2014, 11:26:19 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Proof, please.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2014, 11:29:20 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Your faux-independent trolling is unappreciated. Go back to whatever fracking crevice you came out of.

Excuse me? You of all people seriously went there?

So rational thought about the status of the races en toto is somehow "trolling?" Getting called a "troller" from the ultimate troller on this board is comical.

If any RATIONAL Republican or Democrat went through these races, NC would likely be rated Republican 54 or Democrat 46. New Hampshire would be 55/45. Georgia would probably be 53/47 at this point, with Kansas at 52/48, followed by Iowa, Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc..

NC is hardly a firewall. If anything the firewall is in Iowa or Colorado where control of the Senate would flip. Losing NC is the Democrat disaster scenario at this point.

Don't hate the messenger for the analysis. It is what it is on October 20. Things, of course, could change.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2014, 11:34:47 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Proof, please.

Iowa - PPP D+1, Other polling R+1 to R+4
LA - PPP D+8, Other polling D+3 to R+4
KS - PPP I+3, Other polling (outside of obvious Rasmussen outlier) Tie to R+5

This particular poll seems more in line with the state of the race, however.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2014, 11:44:43 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Proof, please.

Iowa - PPP D+1, Other polling R+1 to R+4
LA - PPP D+8, Other polling D+3 to R+4
KS - PPP I+3, Other polling (outside of obvious Rasmussen outlier) Tie to R+5

This particular poll seems more in line with the state of the race, however.
The Iowa poll was for a partisan group, so you can't really count that as the same their non-partisan polls.  

The only poll that has Roberts at +5 was Fox news, which is (needless to say) probably biased itself.  Every other recent poll has had this at roughly a tie, which is probably where the race is right now.

Citing individual cases of PPP being a few points more Democratic than other polls is not enough to statistically determine a bias.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2014, 11:55:42 am »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Proof, please.

Iowa - PPP D+1, Other polling R+1 to R+4
LA - PPP D+8, Other polling D+3 to R+4
KS - PPP I+3, Other polling (outside of obvious Rasmussen outlier) Tie to R+5

This particular poll seems more in line with the state of the race, however.
The Iowa poll was for a partisan group, so you can't really count that as the same their non-partisan polls.  

The only poll that has Roberts at +5 was Fox news, which is (needless to say) probably biased itself.  Every other recent poll has had this at roughly a tie, which is probably where the race is right now.

Citing individual cases of PPP being a few points more Democratic than other polls is not enough to statistically determine a bias.

What would then
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2014, 12:03:12 pm »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

oh cool, another right-wing "independent" spewing nonsense
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2014, 12:05:45 pm »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!
Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

As big a Hagan hack I can be at times, I never had this race as Lean D. Even when her leads were in the 3-6% range, I always thought of it as Tilt D.
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backtored
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2014, 12:09:19 pm »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? That's like saying, hey, at least the entire D-Line didn't get to our quarterback.

Your quarterback is still demolished even if your right tackle (barely) picked up the blitz.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2014, 12:10:29 pm »

if tillis wins, so will the following - cotton, sullivan, roberts, cassidy, and at least two of rounds, ernst, brown, and gardner.
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20PETE20
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2014, 12:21:45 pm »

This makes the Gravis poll look even more hilarious.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2014, 01:16:24 pm »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Proof, please.

Iowa - PPP D+1, Other polling R+1 to R+4
LA - PPP D+8, Other polling D+3 to R+4
KS - PPP I+3, Other polling (outside of obvious Rasmussen outlier) Tie to R+5

This particular poll seems more in line with the state of the race, however.

You don't get to throw out the Ras outlier in Kansas but not the FOX one.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2014, 01:42:38 pm »
« Edited: October 20, 2014, 02:46:14 pm by Recalcuate »

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

oh cool, another right-wing "independent" spewing nonsense

Nonsense? You go ahead and rate the Senate races for me and tell me where the firewall should realistically be.. Probably somewhere around the Prior race, where there'd be more pathways to 51 for the Democrats

Not North Carolina, which would likely be pickup No. 54 for the Republicans, leaving just No. 55 New Hampshire as the only state left after you "break through the firewall."

Michigan is not going Republican. Nor is Minnesota. The ballgame is in 10 states right now, the Dems conceded Kentucky, so realistically it's down to 9. The map right now favors the Republicans in 7 of the remaining 9 states (with GA and KS as pure tossups/slight lean).

Nothing I have said is anything other than factual. I don't get how I am somehow a partisan when I state the obvious.

As I have repeatedly said. As of October 20th, the polling favors the Republicans. That could change between now and Election Day. it is what it is.
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King
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2014, 01:51:46 pm »

While anything is technically possible, I can't imagine a world where national mood the Republicans pick up the Senate, but NC elects a Democrat. Something has got to give.
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KCDem
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2014, 02:28:30 pm »

The idiocy in the thread is astounding.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2014, 02:29:54 pm »

While anything is technically possible, I can't imagine a world where national mood the Republicans pick up the Senate, but NC elects a Democrat. Something has got to give.

The early voting for Republicans in NC is off to a good start. Something I'm not used to seeing, because Democrats dominate Republicans in early voting every election.
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