Florida Black Belt / Something odd I stumbled on

[minionofmidas]

I'd always been under the impression that those two Dem counties east and west of Tallahassee were Democratic because they were Black-majority counties.
Actually, however...
these are the six Florida counties that over 25% Black. They form a continuous belt along the state's Northern border, in eastern West Florida:
(arranged West to East)
Jackson 27% Black
Gadsden 57% Black
Leon 29% Black
Jefferson 38% Black
Madison 40% Black
Hamilton 38% Black
Leon includes Tallahassee, the others are rural.

and these are 2004 election results for the area:
Jackson 38% Kerry
Gadsden 70% Kerry
Leon 62% Kerry
Jefferson 55% Kerry
Madison 49% Kerry
Hamilton 45% Kerry

So, in Jackson, Madison and Hamilton counties, an overwhelming majority of the Whites voted Republican (taking the Dem votes of Blacks as a given for the moment). Jefferson County, though, is much more divided. Kerry's margin of victory here came from White votes, not Black votes. Anything special about Jefferson?

[Alcon]

This is a good question. Maybe States or some other Floridian can fill us in.

I did some quick research, thinking I might find something special about whatever cities are in the county - the only incorporated one seems to be Monticello (the county name certainly makes sense considering), and I can't find anything exceptional about it.

Maybe it relies heavily on tourism income? That's my best guess, and it's a pretty weak one.

[phk]

Location of a university of sorts?

[Notre Dame rules!]

Perhaps it has something to do with the large number of hippie communes in Jefferson County.

[minionofmidas]

Perhaps it has something to do with the large number of hippie communes in Jefferson County.

If that's true, it's probably the reason.

Re: Monticello. There's also a place called Thomas City. Seems to be a theme.

[Sam Spade]

Jackson County sounds like to me to be a county with 27% black pop. where the rest is old-timey white good-ol-boy Southern Democrat that hasn't voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.  They also gave 70% to Wallace in 1968, which proves my point. 

Gadsden County is just a black-majority county.  Always has been.  When Bush 41 won 60% of Florida in 1988, it was the only county in Florida to vote for Dukakis.

Leon County (Tallahassee) is the home to Florida State University, about 30-40,000 strong.  That's your explanation there.

Jefferson County looks like Jackson County with more black people and perhaps a little less old-timey white good-ol-boy Southern Democrat.  They only gave 50% to Wallace in 1968.

Madison County sounds just like Jefferson and Jackson, with just a little more old-timey white good-ol-boy Southern Democrat than Jefferson and a little less than Jackson.  They gave 57% to Wallace in 1968.

Hamilton also gave 57% to Wallace.  Probably very similar to Madison County.

Whenever looking at these northern Florida counties, the numbers always make sense when you compare them to Wallace numbers in 1968.  It's my easy, simple rule of them.

[??????????]

Jackson County sounds like to me to be a county with 27% black pop. where the rest is old-timey white good-ol-boy Southern Democrat that hasn't voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.  They also gave 70% to Wallace in 1968, which proves my point. 

Gadsden County is just a black-majority county.  Always has been.  When Bush 41 won 60% of Florida in 1988, it was the only county in Florida to vote for Dukakis.

Leon County (Tallahassee) is the home to Florida State University, about 30-40,000 strong.  That's your explanation there.

Jefferson County looks like Jackson County with more black people and perhaps a little less old-timey white good-ol-boy Southern Democrat.  They only gave 50% to Wallace in 1968.

Madison County sounds just like Jefferson and Jackson, with just a little more old-timey white good-ol-boy Southern Democrat than Jefferson and a little less than Jackson.  They gave 57% to Wallace in 1968.

Hamilton also gave 57% to Wallace.  Probably very similar to Madison County.

Whenever looking at these northern Florida counties, the numbers always make sense when you compare them to Wallace numbers in 1968.  It's my easy, simple rule of them.

What the yankee said.

[jimrtex]

If you assume equal participation rates by race, and assume blacks voted 95% Kerry, then the white vote for Kerry is 17%, 18%, and 14% in Jackson, Madison, and Hamilton respectively.  For Leon it is 49%, 37% in Gadsden, and 30% in Jefferson.

Jefferson grew by 3,000 in the 1990s to almost reach its 1920 population (it peaked in 1910 and could match that by 2010).  This might be outgrowth from Tallahassee - Jefferson is on the next county east on the interstate.   This could result in voters somewhat more like Tallahassee.  It also might mean that there is a larger percentage of children (non-voting) as compared to the more rural counties, which might not provide jobs for younger people.

Another possiblity is the voting system used.  Gadsden had a horrible spoilage rate, in part due to a mark sense ballot that split the presidential candidates into two columns (10 and 1), and some people voted for someone from Column A and someone from Column B.  This does not mean that Jefferson used a particular voting system, but that the others might have.