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Author Topic: KY: SUSA: McConnell +1  (Read 2608 times)
Miles
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« on: October 20, 2014, 05:15:32 pm »

Article.

McConnell (R)- 44%
Grimes (D)- 43%

The last poll was Grimes 46/44.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2014, 05:17:21 pm »

Impossible. This race is already over! Grimes is a horrible candidate! Not saying who you voted for = Watergate! She's disqualified! Triage her now! Roll Eyes
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2014, 05:23:38 pm »

Undecideds are going to break heavily to McConnell.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2014, 05:25:41 pm »

I guess that McConnell +8 poll really was an outlier.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2014, 05:30:56 pm »

I guess that McConnell +8 poll really was an outlier.

Here's the problem with Kentucky at the moment...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

Ipsos and SurveyUSA are the only credible pollsters that are currently included in the average, and the Ipsos poll is from over a month ago. McConnell's "comfortable lead" is built on the foundation of Ras, YouGov, and FOX. Not exactly something I'd be comfortable building my house on.
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2014, 05:36:43 pm »

I guess that McConnell +8 poll really was an outlier.

Here's the problem with Kentucky at the moment...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

Ipsos and SurveyUSA are the only credible pollsters that are currently included in the average, and the Ipsos poll is from over a month ago. McConnell's "comfortable lead" is built on the foundation of Ras, YouGov, and FOX. Not exactly something I'd be comfortable building my house on.

Yeah, but on the other hand, SUSA is basically the only legitimate polling firm (I don't count Magellan) to show Grimes ahead the entire campaign.
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2014, 05:40:57 pm »

I guess that McConnell +8 poll really was an outlier.

Here's the problem with Kentucky at the moment...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

Ipsos and SurveyUSA are the only credible pollsters that are currently included in the average, and the Ipsos poll is from over a month ago. McConnell's "comfortable lead" is built on the foundation of Ras, YouGov, and FOX. Not exactly something I'd be comfortable building my house on.

Yeah, but on the other hand, SUSA is basically the only legitimate polling firm (I don't count Magellan) to show Grimes ahead the entire campaign.

That's true, SUSA does have its quirks in certain states. But I'd still take them any day over the aforementioned three.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2014, 05:45:02 pm »

Mitch is gone should Dems hold senate chamber.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2014, 05:48:24 pm »

So... McConnell's number has remained solid and Grimes has gone backwards by 3. That actually makes sense.

To an extent, X is correct, the McConnell die-hards are locked in - but as the new quantity, Grimes is bouncing around. Sure, 44% isn't a great place for an incumbent to be, but it's not that bad when your opponent can't nail down support.

This doesn't feel like a race where Grimes has the wind at her back.
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2014, 05:53:51 pm »

Excellent news! Grimes is on track to retire turtle face.

Edit: Grimes trails by 3 among whites and 17% of blacks are undecided. Safe Grimes.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2014, 05:55:50 pm by KCDem »Logged
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2014, 05:55:18 pm »

Excellent news! Grimes is on track to retire turtle face.

Maybe.
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2014, 05:57:09 pm »

I guess that McConnell +8 poll really was an outlier.

Here's the problem with Kentucky at the moment...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

Ipsos and SurveyUSA are the only credible pollsters that are currently included in the average, and the Ipsos poll is from over a month ago. McConnell's "comfortable lead" is built on the foundation of Ras, YouGov, and FOX. Not exactly something I'd be comfortable building my house on.

Why would the DSCC pull their Senate money out of a one-point race unless their internals are showing a larger margin. If SUSA is correct, I expect the DSCC or a likewise advocacy group invest heavily in KY.
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2014, 06:05:21 pm »

A swing of three points to McConnell (with undecideds obviously going to break for The Leader) and the Dems still think they have a decent shot here. Too precious.
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2014, 06:07:56 pm »

A swing of three points to McConnell (with undecideds obviously going to break for The Leader) and the Dems still think they have a decent shot here. Too precious.

MOE movement. Grimes only trails by 3 amongst whites. This race is going to favor Grimes in the home stretch. Try again.
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2014, 06:08:07 pm »

Still so close. Interesting. We need more polling here.
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2014, 06:09:45 pm »

A swing of three points to McConnell (with undecideds obviously going to break for The Leader) and the Dems still think they have a decent shot here. Too precious.

MOE movement. Grimes only trails by 3 amongst whites. This race is going to favor Grimes in the home stretch. Try again.

SUSA's crosstabs don't mean much of anything.
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2014, 06:13:10 pm »

A swing of three points to McConnell (with undecideds obviously going to break for The Leader) and the Dems still think they have a decent shot here. Too precious.

MOE movement. Grimes only trails by 3 amongst whites. This race is going to favor Grimes in the home stretch. Try again.

Assuming you're not a sock, troll, whatever - shouldn't that give you pause for thought?
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2014, 06:20:48 pm »

I guess that McConnell +8 poll really was an outlier.

Here's the problem with Kentucky at the moment...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

Ipsos and SurveyUSA are the only credible pollsters that are currently included in the average, and the Ipsos poll is from over a month ago. McConnell's "comfortable lead" is built on the foundation of Ras, YouGov, and FOX. Not exactly something I'd be comfortable building my house on.

Why would the DSCC pull their Senate money out of a one-point race unless their internals are showing a larger margin. If SUSA is correct, I expect the DSCC or a likewise advocacy group invest heavily in KY.

Because the DSCC cares more about muh incumbency and trying to save Pryor's doomed campaign, apparently.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2014, 06:24:07 pm »

A swing of three points to McConnell (with undecideds obviously going to break for The Leader) and the Dems still think they have a decent shot here. Too precious.

A drop of sweat gradually forms on Keystone Phil's forehead as the most credible Kentucky pollster in over a month shows the turtle up a single point...
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2014, 06:24:55 pm »

A swing of three points to McConnell (with undecideds obviously going to break for The Leader) and the Dems still think they have a decent shot here. Too precious.

MOE movement. Grimes only trails by 3 amongst whites. This race is going to favor Grimes in the home stretch. Try again.

Assuming you're not a sock, troll, whatever - shouldn't that give you pause for thought?

In 2008, Lunsford lost whites by 16 points. Grimes closing that gap by 13 shows that she has the support to win this race.
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2014, 06:26:13 pm »

There is still room for Grimes to win this.
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2014, 06:31:59 pm »

There is still room for Grimes to win this.

Yeah, in your head, which certainly has plenty of room.
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2014, 06:33:11 pm »

A swing of three points to McConnell (with undecideds obviously going to break for The Leader) and the Dems still think they have a decent shot here. Too precious.

MOE movement. Grimes only trails by 3 amongst whites. This race is going to favor Grimes in the home stretch. Try again.

Assuming you're not a sock, troll, whatever - shouldn't that give you pause for thought?

In 2008, Lunsford lost whites by 16 points. Grimes closing that gap by 13 shows that she has the support to win this race.

Lol... not that the white sample is too Grimes friendly?
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2014, 06:33:32 pm »

There is still room for Grimes to win this.

Yeah, in your head, which certainly has plenty of room.

Go play with your Santorum, Roberts and Brownback dolls, okay? Bye, little boy.
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2014, 06:34:02 pm »

There is still room for Grimes to win this.

Yeah, in your head, which certainly has plenty of room.

Says the Republican from Pennsylvania... Roll Eyes
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