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  NH: YouGov: Shaheen leads by three in poll for UMass Amherst
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Author Topic: NH: YouGov: Shaheen leads by three in poll for UMass Amherst  (Read 1967 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 20, 2014, 05:55:59 pm »

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by YouGov on 2014-10-15

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, I: 5%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2014, 05:56:22 pm »
« Edited: October 20, 2014, 05:57:55 pm by Lief »

Note the sample size is 322 for some reason, so this poll is pretty garbage.

These word clouds are pretty hilarious though:

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New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2014, 05:57:03 pm »

"Democrat does worse than expected -- must be garbage"
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2014, 05:58:15 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2014, 12:48:13 pm by Tender Branson »

"Democrat does worse than expected -- must be garbage"

You're an idiot.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2014, 05:58:45 pm »

>YouGov, looks about right though.
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KCDem
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2014, 05:59:21 pm »

Brown's ceiling is 45%. Safe D.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2014, 06:00:03 pm »

Note the sample size is 322 for some reason, so this poll is pretty garbage.

These word clouds are pretty hilarious though:



LOL, looks like I might have a new sig...
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2014, 06:00:59 pm »

>YouGov, but this margin is in line with other polls.
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New_Conservative
BrandenCordeiro
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2014, 06:01:19 pm »


How?
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2014, 06:01:42 pm »

"Democrat does worse than expected -- must be garbage"

Yep, this poll pretty much confirms the other polls that have Shaheen leading by three. It must be a junk poll. Shaheen should be leading by 10 solely because she's a Democrat. Democrats are good. Pollsters showing Democrats with a small lead are junk. /sarcasm

In the real world, it's Shaheen's race to lose before this poll was released and Shaheen's race to lose now. The race however, has tightened.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2014, 06:03:11 pm »

.....

Guys, polls with a sample size of 300 and a margin of error of 7% are not good. I don't care who is leading. Stop embarrassing yourselves by whining about every perceived instance of hackery.
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2014, 06:03:17 pm »


So the Democrats can safely pull all their money out of New Hampshire now since you've declared it "safe?"

Try lean D instead.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2014, 06:04:04 pm »

Remember how Brown was going to lose by like twenty points according to the Atlas Forum Mentality?
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SWE
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2014, 06:04:40 pm »

"Democrat does worse than expected -- must be garbage"
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KCDem
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2014, 06:06:01 pm »

Brown's internals show him down 9 FWIW
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2014, 06:06:14 pm »

.....

Guys, polls with a sample size of 300 and a margin of error of 7% are not good. I don't care who is leading. Stop embarrassing yourselves by whining about every perceived instance of hackery.

You're right on the sample size. However, this just is another data point that confirms a tightening in this race. Again, it's Shaheen's race to lose, but Brown has made it interesting.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2014, 06:07:48 pm »

I love how the one word some people use to describe Shaheen is 'Obama'.

Also the people who chose to describe Brown as 'better'.
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Mogrovejo
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2014, 06:10:48 pm »

The 5% for 'other' is amusing - considering there isn't any other name on the ballot. It'll be a great night for write-ins in NH.

The good news for Shaheen is that she's holding steady in that 47-49% interval. The race tightening doesn't matter so much when one of the candidates is consistently hoovering around the 50% mark. Brown as tightened the race at the expense of former undecideds -which was to be expected, NH's is elastic and small enough that he can make use of his retail skills- but Shaheen firewall seems to be working and arguably that's all she needs.
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SPC
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2014, 06:13:06 pm »

.....

Guys, polls with a sample size of 300 and a margin of error of 7% are not good. I don't care who is leading. Stop embarrassing yourselves by whining about every perceived instance of hackery.

Is RCP incorrect, or was the New England College poll showing Brown ahead the recent poll with the largest sample size?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2014, 06:15:15 pm »

Remember how Brown was going to lose by like twenty points according to the Atlas Forum Mentality?

No, but I remember when everyone thought she was going to win by high single digits. Remember when Brownback was supposed to win easily? Wink
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2014, 06:16:09 pm »

Brown's internals show him down 9 FWIW

Where did you see this at?
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2014, 06:17:18 pm »

Brown's internals show him down 9 FWIW
So all that third-party money is flowing out of New Hampshire to other states, right? NH is getting abandoned by the Republicans like Michigan? Give me a break.
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2014, 06:18:58 pm »


He didn't. He's about as hooked in with the Brown campaign as I am with Kate Upton's phone number.
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KCDem
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2014, 06:19:44 pm »

Brown's internals show him down 9 FWIW
So all that third-party money is flowing out of New Hampshire to other states, right? NH is getting abandoned by the Republicans like Michigan? Give me a break.

Why don't you take your 59-post experience and leave. You know nothing about politics. Go do your algebra homework.
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2014, 06:21:36 pm »

There was a tweet from the NHDP chair that did say that Republican internals had Brown down by 9%, so whether or not you want to believe that, KCDem didn't make that up.
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