Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 21, 2019, 03:07:59 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | | | |-+  CO: PPP says Gardner+3
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: CO: PPP says Gardner+3  (Read 3513 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,146
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2014, 07:39:31 am »

46-43-5-7 Gardner/Udall

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2014/10/21/democratic-poll-shows-udall-behind-senate-race/114273
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,498
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2014, 07:44:14 am »

They didn't push leaners? Both men lost ground (-1 CG, -2 MU) from last time.
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,390


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2014, 08:09:34 am »

Here comes the boom.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,695
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2014, 08:09:44 am »

It seems Colorado is experiencing a miniature 1994
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,289
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2014, 08:10:12 am »

I think I'm finally going to have to give this one to Gardner.
Logged
Talleyrand
TexasDemocrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,274


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2014, 08:11:30 am »

Yeah, this one is over. Stick a fork in Udall.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,379
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2014, 08:12:32 am »

Very bad for Udall:

Quote
Udallís job approval rating is worse than President Barack Obama, the poll found, at 37 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. (Obama is 41-54, favorable to unfavorable.)
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,289
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2014, 08:21:34 am »

Yeah, this one is over. Stick a fork in Udall.

Wouldn't go that far. I definitely see this one as being "too close to call" on election night. But the fact that he has trailed in basically every major poll for a while now is worrisome.

The Gardner campaign seems to have taken complete control of the campaign's narrative these past few weeks.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,498
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2014, 08:33:50 am »

Sabato has this race clearly as tossup not leans GOP. I am not conceding this race becausr it is PPP. Udall is still in it and mau even be in a bettrr position than Begich who trails by fivr.
Logged
Recalcuate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 444


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2014, 08:36:31 am »

Very bad for Udall:

Quote
Udall’s job approval rating is worse than President Barack Obama, the poll found, at 37 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. (Obama is 41-54, favorable to unfavorable.)

It didn't help that Udall said he was "brain-dead" and couldn't remember more than one book he read that had an impact on his life and then asked to re-tape the interview.

You'd think that would be Candidate School 101 nowadays. Seems like it's Gardner's race to lose at this point.
Logged
ModerateVAVoter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,428


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2014, 08:36:47 am »

OC, Sabato also has Kentucky as Likely R, and you keep insisting Grimes is going to win.

I'm not saying we should treat Sabato's rankings at doctrine, nor am I saying Udall is finished, but let's try and be consistent.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2014, 08:40:27 am by ModerateVAVoter »Logged
Chance92
Full Member
***
Posts: 104


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2014, 08:42:08 am »

Ahaha, that's really not good.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,498
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2014, 08:53:38 am »

Udall clearly had a bump in the road, its not the end of road. He is in a better position to win because of Hick, than Begich, who trails by five. 
Logged
Economically Anxious Bush, Romney, Trump, Bernie Voter
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,686
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2014, 09:02:21 am »

It seems Colorado is experiencing a miniature 1994

No, Hickenlooper should eek out a win and we'll almost certainly keep the state house and probably the state senate.  Despite the poll, I think we'll also narrowly pickup the Secretary of State's office, especially with Campbell on the ballot (even if she's overpolling, she's only taking votes away from Williams).  Coloradans can correct me if I'm wrong, but I've heard Neguse has run a very strong campaign and is considered a top-tier recruit whereas Williams is considered a pretty "meh" candidate at best.  The Treasurer's race seems more competitive than I expected since I've never been very impressed by Markey, but it looks like she could win (although my gut still says she'll do worse than Neguse).  The AG race is disappointing because Quick seemed like a really strong candidate on paper, but I've heard Coffman proved stronger than expected and this always struck me as a race tied to the national mood...oh well Sad Udall has simply run an awful campaign while Gardner ran a better campaign than any other Republican Senate candidate (including incumbents).

TL; DR: Yes, we're facing some backlash here from the gun stuff, but this is hardly a 1994-type situation (if you want to see what that would look like, watch the results in Ohio).  Even Udall would've probably won had he run an average-quality campaign.  This will be pretty rough, but it isn't 1994 level-bad.  If it was, Hickenlooper would probably be doing worse than Udall (given that he's probably about as hated by Colorado Republicans as Barack Obama).
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,498
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2014, 09:21:55 am »

Here's the full poll. Gardner leads 47/44 with leaners.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,637
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2014, 09:33:19 am »

I love this news! I suppose Gardner definitely has at least some edge.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2014, 09:38:38 am »

Seems like an interestingly high number of undecideds, but nevertheless, this is good news.
Logged
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,908
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2014, 09:55:29 am »

I'm going to stick to my prediction that Udall wins. On election day, I have to imagine that Udall carries women by more than 4%. Turnout counts, and Democrats do more ground work than Republicans. I can't tell you how many Republicans think groundwork is silly.
Logged
backtored
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
Vatican City State


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2014, 10:02:00 am »

It seems Colorado is experiencing a miniature 1994

No, Hickenlooper should eek out a win and we'll almost certainly keep the state house and probably the state senate.  Despite the poll, I think we'll also narrowly pickup the Secretary of State's office, especially with Campbell on the ballot (even if she's overpolling, she's only taking votes away from Williams).  Coloradans can correct me if I'm wrong, but I've heard Neguse has run a very strong campaign and is considered a top-tier recruit whereas Williams is considered a pretty "meh" candidate at best.  The Treasurer's race seems more competitive than I expected since I've never been very impressed by Markey, but it looks like she could win (although my gut still says she'll do worse than Neguse).  The AG race is disappointing because Quick seemed like a really strong candidate on paper, but I've heard Coffman proved stronger than expected and this always struck me as a race tied to the national mood...oh well Sad Udall has simply run an awful campaign while Gardner ran a better campaign than any other Republican Senate candidate (including incumbents).

TL; DR: Yes, we're facing some backlash here from the gun stuff, but this is hardly a 1994-type situation (if you want to see what that would look like, watch the results in Ohio).  Even Udall would've probably won had he run an average-quality campaign.  This will be pretty rough, but it isn't 1994 level-bad.  If it was, Hickenlooper would probably be doing worse than Udall (given that he's probably about as hated by Colorado Republicans as Barack Obama).

Democrats will likely lose the state senate and the state house is in play, although Democrats should hold it, albeit by a small margin. Hick tied, and that is assuming a decent Democratic turnout. If the GOP backlash or turnout is just a little stronger than the polling, then the GOP will sweep all statewide races.
Logged
backtored
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 503
Vatican City State


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2014, 10:05:34 am »

The GOP leads by eight in the generic legislative ballot. That is....amazing. They actually might sweep the legislature with a boost like that.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2014, 10:23:38 am »

RIP Udall. Almost as sad as when Feingold lost. Sad
Logged
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,082
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2014, 10:46:08 am »

Very bad for Udall:

Quote
Udallís job approval rating is worse than President Barack Obama, the poll found, at 37 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. (Obama is 41-54, favorable to unfavorable.)

Jesus Christ.
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,288
United States


P P
View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2014, 11:18:22 am »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-10-19

Summary: D: 43%, R: 46%, I: 5%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,972
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2014, 12:10:36 pm »

Well, sh*t.
Logged
King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,482
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2014, 12:14:43 pm »

The pundit in me just can't see a Udall going down unceremoniously in Colorado. The pollster in me acknowledges it's not looking good. Considering Hickenlooper and the almighty Colorado Brewer interests are also trying to pack this thing, it would not surprise me to see a Quinn/Reid 2010 thing happen here.

Or hell, the final RCP average for Bennet-Buck was Buck+3.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2014, 12:16:36 pm by King »Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines