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  WI: PPP for National Journal: Walker +1
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Author Topic: WI: PPP for National Journal: Walker +1  (Read 1236 times)
Miles
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« on: October 21, 2014, 10:05:38 am »

Report.

Walker (R)- 47%
Burke (D)- 46%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:14:56 am »

That is a fascinating headline - PPP for the freaking national journal.

Continues the trend that this race is up in the air with the narrowest of narrow tilts for Walker. We'll see on election day though.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2014, 10:19:34 am »

Democrats usually do slightly better on election day than they do in the polls (even if they end up losing anyway). Though this might just be a result of same day registration, which I think Walker and co. got rid of?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2014, 10:27:51 am »

Democrats usually do slightly better on election day than they do in the polls (even if they end up losing anyway). Though this might just be a result of same day registration, which I think Walker and co. got rid of?

Nope, same day registration is still possible in WI.

But not in NC.

I think WI only shortened early voting and put voting with picture ID's in place (which was then axed by the Supreme Court).
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2014, 10:37:49 am »

47% sure isn't a good place to be for an incumbent governor as controversial as Walker this late.

And yes, I understand that Wisconsin after a judge's decision now again has some of the most permissive voting laws in the country.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2014, 10:38:36 am »

Democrats usually do slightly better on election day than they do in the polls (even if they end up losing anyway). Though this might just be a result of same day registration, which I think Walker and co. got rid of?

Nope, same day registration is still possible in WI.

But not in NC.

I think WI only shortened early voting and put voting with picture ID's in place (which was then axed by the Supreme Court).

Ah, that's good to know! Walker is in pretty deep trouble with numbers like this then.
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2014, 10:39:47 am »

This election has been so uninteresting in Minnesota it was going to be the first time in a long time I didn't even bother taking Election Day off or doing any canvassing the weekend before, but come to think of it I could do some good in Madison...but then I'd have to take off Monday too probably. Eh we'll see.

But then again, I don't necessarily have to go all the way to Madison. I could always go to River Falls or Menominee (college towns near the border)
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2014, 10:53:02 am »

Considering the younger voters are the undecideds this one could get interesting
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Chance92
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2014, 10:58:26 am »

I have hesitantly high hopes for Burke.
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Never
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2014, 11:26:00 am »

Democrats usually do slightly better on election day than they do in the polls (even if they end up losing anyway).

Walker did overperform some polls in the 2012 recall (PPP's final poll of the 2012 recall had Walker up 3, and he ultimately won by 7), so Democrats overperforming their poll numbers might not apply to this race. On the other hand, Walker underperformed in 2010 compared to the polls. My point is that the picture isn't very clear regarding which side will overperform their poll numbers on November 4.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2014, 11:29:08 am »

Democrats usually do slightly better on election day than they do in the polls (even if they end up losing anyway).

Walker did overperform some polls in the 2012 recall (PPP's final poll of the 2012 recall had Walker up 3, and he ultimately won by 7), so Democrats overperforming their poll numbers might not apply to this race. On the other hand, Walker underperformed in 2010 compared to the polls. My point is that the picture isn't very clear regarding which side will overperform their poll numbers on November 4.

PPP has an iffy track record in Wisconsin. They were actually the most pro-Ron Johnson poll in 2010.
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Never
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2014, 11:38:03 am »

Democrats usually do slightly better on election day than they do in the polls (even if they end up losing anyway).

Walker did overperform some polls in the 2012 recall (PPP's final poll of the 2012 recall had Walker up 3, and he ultimately won by 7), so Democrats overperforming their poll numbers might not apply to this race. On the other hand, Walker underperformed in 2010 compared to the polls. My point is that the picture isn't very clear regarding which side will overperform their poll numbers on November 4.

PPP has an iffy track record in Wisconsin. They were actually the most pro-Ron Johnson poll in 2010.

Interesting. I suppose they could be understating Walker's advantage this go-around, but considering PPP is showing numbers similar to other polls in the race, I'm not sure if their track record will continue to be poor this year...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2014, 11:44:42 am »

Past Wisconsin results:

2012 President:
RCP Avg: D +4.2
Final Result: D +6.9

2012 Senate:
RCP Avg: D +2.2
Final Result: D +5.5

2010 Governor:
RCP Avg: R +8.7
Final result: R +5.7

2010 Senate:
RCP Avg: R +7.7
Final result: R +4.9

2008 President:
RCP Avg: D +11.0
Final Result: D +13.9

IIRC, polls in 2004 and 2000 also had Bush winning Wisconsin, so this has existed for a while.

To be fair, the polling average nailed almost exactly the run-off result, but I think for obvious reasons it's okay to put an asterisk next to that.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2014, 08:14:04 am »

God damn, this one is going to be fun to follow on election night.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2014, 10:59:36 am »

I think Walker eeks this one out.
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