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Author Topic: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead  (Read 2226 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 22, 2014, 06:54:19 am »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Survey USA on 2014-10-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 44%, I: 4%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2014, 07:00:28 am »

From the last SurveyUSA poll: Nunn down from a three point lead with 48% to a two point lead with 46%. Perdue power.
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 07:35:42 am »

So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 07:44:18 am »

So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2014, 08:01:59 am »

Hopefully, Nunn takes this and gets over 50 percent, to help us close senate out.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2014, 08:05:14 am »

So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."

People usually call it MoE movement.
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2014, 08:15:07 am »

So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."



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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2014, 08:41:53 am »

...and GA is now pink on the polls map!
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2014, 08:44:01 am »

Hopefully, Nunn takes this and gets over 50 percent, to help us close senate out.

Unlikely if the spread is two points. The Libertarian is usually good for 2-3 in Georgia. Four is a tad bit overstated around the fringes of the margins, of course.

Unless there's a change, this thing looks like it's headed to a January 6th runoff.
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King
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2014, 08:44:26 am »

Lot of undecided voters still and the I is not getting 4%.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2014, 08:49:49 am »

Adam Griffin, check the crosstabs, Northwest GA is showing sensible results here

also Valerie Wilson is only down by two points in the Superintendent race
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2014, 09:00:51 am »

Going to a runoff. Still, winning the Election Day vote would be a tremendous accomplishment for Georgia Dems.
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2014, 09:22:42 am »

Lot of undecided voters still and the I is not getting 4%.

2-4 % is normal for a Libertarian in Georgia races.
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2014, 09:27:31 am »

Lot of undecided voters still and the I is not getting 4%.

2-4 % is normal for a Libertarian in Georgia races.

In the past 20 years  of Senate races, the Libertarian hasn't cleared 4%. Highest was mid-3s. Typically, the vote settles somewhere in the 2-3% range.

Again, around the fringes of the MOE here, but the Libertarian right now sends this to a runoff.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2014, 11:19:26 am »

In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2014, 11:24:09 am »

In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.
Crosstabs are useless in SUSA polls.
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Castro
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2014, 03:03:34 pm »

In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.

These are the people that decide our elections....God help us
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2014, 04:17:54 pm »

In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.

These are the people that decide our elections....God help us

Keep in mind, the MOE for the subset of those that already voted is extremely high.  Also with it being 3% of that subset it literally comes out to 2 or 3 people who were polled that said that.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2014, 04:26:37 pm »

Still, winning the Election Day vote would be a tremendous accomplishment for Georgia Dems.

I'll volunteer to shine their silver medal, if you'd like!
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2014, 04:42:35 pm »

In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.

These are the people that decide our elections....God help us

Keep in mind, the MOE for the subset of those that already voted is extremely high.  Also with it being 3% of that subset it literally comes out to 2 or 3 people who were polled that said that.

And those two or three people knew exactly what they were doing. They were telling SUSA to shove it where the sun don't shine.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2014, 11:06:27 pm »

Damn, Nunn is probably going to win a plurality of votes on election only to lose the silly runoff.
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2014, 12:23:06 am »

So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."

LOL, maybe Nunn was at 47.6% and now at 46.4% while Perdue went from 45.4% to 43.6%.
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2014, 06:29:49 am »

Adam Griffin, check the crosstabs, Northwest GA is showing sensible results here

also Valerie Wilson is only down by two points in the Superintendent race

From a 6-8 point lead for Perdue/Deal, back to low-20s; that looks about right. Inversely, South Georgia's 10-point deficit for Carter and Nunn have shifted back to being what they should have been, which cancelled each other out. Each candidate lost a tiny bit of support in the metro in this new poll, which explains the drop for all candidates.

Crosstabs are useless in SUSA polls.

Apparently so.
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This thread went completely off the rails. Exactly as Griffin would have wanted.
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