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Author Topic: NH-PPP: Shaheen still ahead  (Read 3216 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 22, 2014, 02:20:26 pm »

http://www.lcv.org/assets/pdf/nh-senate-poll-10-22-14.pdf

49-45

Looks like the good people of New Hampshire won't let Carpetbagger Scott take their senate seat as his consolation prize!
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2014, 02:21:18 pm »

We'll see in two weeks just how ahead she is.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 02:22:15 pm »

We'll see in two weeks just how ahead she is.

Probably something like 4-6 points.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 02:24:00 pm »

We'll see in two weeks just how ahead she is.

It'll be closer than I expected, but she's right on track for a W. I'd put her right about even with Kay Hagan as far as her chances go - people who for all intents and purposes should have lost, but went up against bad candidates.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2014, 02:24:45 pm »

This is a poll for LCV.
But Shaheen is still the favorite to win.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2014, 02:25:09 pm »

It would be one thing if she was up by the same margin but leading 45/41. She's usually near 50%, which is why I think she holds on.
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2014, 02:30:12 pm »

I don't think she loses by any means, but I think Brown is going to be really close, closer than a lot of people expect. (within 2 points), and I think he still has a chance to win.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2014, 02:34:17 pm »

Whatever
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SWE
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2014, 02:36:18 pm »

Shaheen would be toast if Republicans decided they wanted to contest this race, but they decided to nominate Scott Brown instead.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2014, 02:41:10 pm »

Shaheen would be toast if Republicans decided they wanted to contest this race, but they decided to nominate Scott Brown instead.
Who should've they nominated then?
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SWE
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2014, 02:43:02 pm »

Shaheen would be toast if Republicans decided they wanted to contest this race, but they decided to nominate Scott Brown instead.
Who should've they nominated then?
Some random state senator with no name recognition would be a step in the right direction
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Joshua
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2014, 03:24:02 pm »

Shaheen would be toast if Republicans decided they wanted to contest this race, but they decided to nominate Scott Brown instead.
Who should've they nominated then?

They should have renominated Sununu, who would beat Shaheen, then Shaheen would beat Sununu again in 2020 because that's the schizophrenic NH politics the nation has come to know and love.
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2014, 03:39:36 pm »

I'd be willing to trade Georgia for this seat.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2014, 03:42:39 pm »

Shaheen would be toast if Republicans decided they wanted to contest this race, but they decided to nominate Scott Brown instead.
Who should've they nominated then?
Judd Gregg, Frank Guinta, or Charles Bass.
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2014, 03:45:33 pm »

Shaheen would be toast if Republicans decided they wanted to contest this race, but they decided to nominate Scott Brown instead.
Who should've they nominated then?
Judd Gregg, Frank Guinta, or Charles Bass.

Bass and Gregg are has-beens, and Guinta is damaged goods in the state's more right-wing half. Bill Binnie might be the best realistic possible candidate here, but Brown is a very skilled politician and is doing quite well -- better than, say, Mark Udall.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2014, 03:51:08 pm »

Shaheen would be toast if Republicans decided they wanted to contest this race, but they decided to nominate Scott Brown instead.
Who should've they nominated then?

Besides Bass or Gregg (who are out of politics anyways), Chris Sununu would have probably been their best bet. I can think of a bunch of state senators too (Jeannie Forrester and Nancy Stiles first come to mind, and of course there's Jeb Bradley), and Marilinda Garcia would have been much better off running here instead of NH-2. But coming from someone who's generally happy with the NHDP - we dodged a bullet.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2014, 03:57:59 pm »

I'd be willing to trade Georgia for this seat.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2014, 05:24:20 pm »

We'll see in two weeks just how ahead she is.

It'll be closer than I expected, but she's right on track for a W. I'd put her right about even with Kay Hagan as far as her chances go - people who for all intents and purposes should have lost, but went up against bad candidates.

I'd say Shaheen is in a better position than Hagan.

1) NH is bluer than NC.
2) She's consistently close to 50, unlike Hagan who tends to stay around 45.
3) Unlike Hagan, Shaheen has positive approvals and favorability ratings.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2014, 05:41:41 pm »

Garcia or Innis could've won this, but Scott Brown's performance has been downright impressive considering he's gone from "moderate independent" to "republican hack" so quickly.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2014, 05:42:56 pm »

Garcia or Innis could've won this, but Scott Brown's performance has been downright impressive considering he's gone from "moderate independent" to "republican hack" so quickly.

Republicans made a mistake not running one of those two and then running Scott for MA Gov. He would've been a lock against Coakley.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2014, 05:44:14 pm »

Jeanne Shaheen is the odd one out in these contentious races - she's still fairly popular with voters. Is the closeness just because New Hampshire is crazy?
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2014, 05:45:50 pm »

Jeanne Shaheen is the odd one out in these contentious races - she's still fairly popular with voters. Is the closeness just because New Hampshire is crazy?

These polls are strange, this race is the strangest in the country in my opinion.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2014, 05:51:19 pm »


Jeanne Shaheen is the odd one out in these contentious races - she's still fairly popular with voters. Is the closeness just because New Hampshire is crazy?
New Hampshire is a swing state, so I'm not at all surprised that the race is close. If Shaheen does hold on, it will not be because she's effectively represented NH - I highly doubt that the people of NH want her to vote with Obama 99% of the time as she does. It's just that Scott Brown, despite being ideologically fit for new Hampshire, isn't able to shake off the carpetbagger/opportunistic narrative, or get past the general negative feelings that people in NH have about politicians from "Taxachusetts".

With Gregg, Bass, or even Sununu, this would be at least Lean R.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2014, 06:24:05 pm »

Jeanne Shaheen is the odd one out in these contentious races - she's still fairly popular with voters. Is the closeness just because New Hampshire is crazy?

So was Chafee in 2006. Some states just get swept up in the national current.
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