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Author Topic: WI: St. Norbert College: WPR-St. Norbert Poll Shows Walker, Burke In Tight Race  (Read 1313 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 22, 2014, 05:44:40 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin Governor by St. Norbert College on 2014-1021

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2014, 05:50:34 pm »

This is the pollster that said Tommy Thompson would win. Terrible news for Walker.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2014, 06:01:44 pm »

Definitely getting the sense that the race is shifting to Burke here.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2014, 06:05:49 pm »

Definitely getting the sense that the race is shifting to Burke here.

Yeah. I mean, even putting aside the Thompson result for a second, their last poll had Walker up 16 even as everyone else was showing him up 3-7.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2014, 06:16:12 pm »

Gonna flip it to Burke on my map. It's time.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2014, 06:43:47 pm »

Great logic, lets just shift the race to the bias it had in 2012. That's how you read a poll Atlas Forum style.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2014, 06:44:21 pm »

Great logic, lets just shift the race to the bias it had in 2012. That's how you read a poll Atlas Forum style.

Not just 2012...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2014, 06:50:30 pm »

Great logic, lets just shift the race to the bias it had in 2012. That's how you read a poll Atlas Forum style.

Past Wisconsin results:

2012 President:
RCP Avg: D +4.2
Final Result: D +6.9

2012 Senate:
RCP Avg: D +2.2
Final Result: D +5.5

2010 Governor:
RCP Avg: R +8.7
Final result: R +5.7

2010 Senate:
RCP Avg: R +7.7
Final result: R +4.9

2008 President:
RCP Avg: D +11.0
Final Result: D +13.9

IIRC, polls in 2004 and 2000 also had Bush winning Wisconsin, so this has existed for a while.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2014, 06:52:25 pm »

Great logic, lets just shift the race to the bias it had in 2012. That's how you read a poll Atlas Forum style.
This race is about as pure tossup as you can get. Every one poll seems to cancel out the next release. Should be an interesting one on election night.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2014, 07:26:10 pm »

Great logic, lets just shift the race to the bias it had in 2012. That's how you read a poll Atlas Forum style.

Yeah. I mean, even putting aside the Thompson result for a second, their last poll had Walker up 16 even as everyone else was showing him up 3-7.

That said, it's possible they just got better at polling. In fact, that's almost certainly the explanation, since if they still retained their Republican bias from 2012/early 2014 it would mean in reality Burke had a hefty lead, which quite obviously isn't the case. But either way, it's horrible news for Walker that his best poll now shows him in a dead heat.
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R2D2
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2014, 07:41:15 pm »

Thank god The Great Asshole will be taking out of office.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2014, 08:15:06 pm »

Great logic, lets just shift the race to the bias it had in 2012. That's how you read a poll Atlas Forum style.

Yeah. I mean, even putting aside the Thompson result for a second, their last poll had Walker up 16 even as everyone else was showing him up 3-7.

That said, it's possible they just got better at polling. In fact, that's almost certainly the explanation, since if they still retained their Republican bias from 2012/early 2014 it would mean in reality Burke had a hefty lead, which quite obviously isn't the case. But either way, it's horrible news for Walker that his best poll now shows him in a dead heat.

Walker is in trouble, I obviously see that. But this is just 1 point away from the most recent Marquette poll and just 2 points away from the recent Rasmussen poll. We're equating this to Burke having a lead when no other evidence says that's the case.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2014, 10:49:01 pm »

Great logic, lets just shift the race to the bias it had in 2012. That's how you read a poll Atlas Forum style.

Yeah. I mean, even putting aside the Thompson result for a second, their last poll had Walker up 16 even as everyone else was showing him up 3-7.

That said, it's possible they just got better at polling. In fact, that's almost certainly the explanation, since if they still retained their Republican bias from 2012/early 2014 it would mean in reality Burke had a hefty lead, which quite obviously isn't the case. But either way, it's horrible news for Walker that his best poll now shows him in a dead heat.

Walker is in trouble, I obviously see that. But this is just 1 point away from the most recent Marquette poll and just 2 points away from the recent Rasmussen poll. We're equating this to Burke having a lead when no other evidence says that's the case.

You gotta either put the race down as tossup/Burke or tossup/Walker. I've had it at tossup/Walker for a while. It's clear that Burke has the momentum now though. Even if the race remained essentially dead even going into election day, it is Wisconsin. I'm betting on the Democrat under those conditions in Wisconsin.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2014, 08:10:59 pm »

Burke's going to pull this thing off and I have been saying it since January
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 10:03:10 pm »

Burke's going to pull this thing off and I have been saying it since January

I remember back in early 2014 when all the blue avatars were talking about how the only question was whether Walker would win comfortably or he would win in a massive landslide. Good times.
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 10:24:17 pm »

You come at the workers, you best not miss, Scotty-boy.
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