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Author Topic: GA: CNN/ORC: Nunn leads general & runoff  (Read 2176 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 24, 2014, 05:51:13 am »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by CNN/ORC on 2014-10-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 44%, I: 5%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2014, 05:52:40 am »

Splendid news !

Smiley
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 05:55:54 am »

Praise Allah!
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2014, 06:17:08 am »

WOO HOO!
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Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2014, 06:36:19 am »

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2014, 06:43:25 am »

So based only on November turnout (which she's winning in this poll), she leads in the runoff? Shocking! Nevermind the fact that that's a completely irresponsible move by the pollster.
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2014, 06:46:24 am »

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Antonio V
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2014, 06:59:29 am »

So based only on November turnout (which she's winning in this poll), she leads in the runoff? Shocking! Nevermind the fact that that's a completely irresponsible move by the pollster.

Jim Martin? Jim Martin! 2008. Martin, Jim.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2014, 07:01:39 am »

So based only on November turnout (which she's winning in this poll), she leads in the runoff? Shocking! Nevermind the fact that that's a completely irresponsible move by the pollster.

Jim Martin? Jim Martin! 2008. Martin, Jim.

And basically every runoff ever. Wake up from fantasy land if you think an early January runoff will have anywhere near the same kind of turnout as November's General.
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2014, 07:07:11 am »

At this point, Nunn is only like a percentage point away from 50%, assuming undecideds break evenly.  Its very possible that she can avoid a runoff altogether.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2014, 07:12:02 am »

Thankfully there's a runoff. I always thought Perdue, parody of self-funder, would be awful and it's worse than I imagined.
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2014, 07:12:52 am »
« Edited: October 24, 2014, 07:14:42 am by NE Caretaker Griffin »

So based only on November turnout (which she's winning in this poll), she leads in the runoff? Shocking! Nevermind the fact that that's a completely irresponsible move by the pollster.

Jim Martin? Jim Martin! 2008. Martin, Jim.

And basically every runoff ever. Wake up from fantasy land if you think an early January runoff will have anywhere near the same kind of turnout as November's General.

There's also 1992 - which took the same trajectory - but the slide was much smaller. In fact, both candidates technically increased their share of the vote (though Fowler only did so by 0.1 point).

This type of run-off scenario hasn't been assessed yet, and considering the combined efforts of the Nunn/Carter campaign are more advanced and organized than any other campaign ever in Georgia, the dynamic may actually have potential to work in anyone's favor. Conventional wisdom suggests that a post-holiday turnout could be so low that it's possible to short-circuit the standard if ATL is organized enough. Likely? Probably not, but still worth considering. There's a point at which turnout decreases to a point that both sides could be at a disadvantage, and a strong ground-game will be all that matters.



But yeah, Nunn's getting to the point in these polls where factors like this combined with the unprecedented voter registration numbers might actually make the difference, and one that we're not yet seeing.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2014, 07:22:40 am »

Alternatively, if control of the Senate is at stake, turnout could be relatively high.  There is no way to know exactly how many people will vote at this point.
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 08:25:23 am »

Nunn could very well meet the 50% threshold in November. Candidates can get 50%, even if they never actually poll at 50% in pre-election polling.
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 08:50:37 am »

I is going to drop off by at least 2-3 points. Should largely break to the Republican ideologically, but not uniformly. So figure maybe a one point tick for Perdue (if even).

3 points is the outer range for Nunn to avoid a runoff. Unlikely, but possible. That lead gets to 4, a runoff may be averted.
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Beezer
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 09:00:11 am »

Democratic wave! Maybe that stoner from CA is gonna turn out to be right with his prediction about the Dems winning Senate seats.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2014, 09:03:08 am »
« Edited: October 24, 2014, 09:05:08 am by NE Caretaker Griffin »

I really don't see the Libertarian doing all that well in this race. It's possible that the Libertarian in the Governor's race hits 5%, but here...she's underwhelming, not impressive, ideologically-divided (not a Rand Paul Libertarian), and this contest is increasingly becoming known as one that's coming down to the wire. Fewer people will waste their votes here, I believe. She might hit 2%, but we'll see.

It's also worth noting that we're almost out of undecideds at this point, and a good chunk - a majority - have been breaking in Nunn's direction according to the polls. Yes, this defies the trends and playing field we usually see in Georgia, but so does this entire campaign and election cycle. I don't see why she can't keep up the momentum with the ones that are left at this point.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2014, 09:11:20 am »

The best news:

Both AJC (Abt SRBI) and WSB-News (Landmark) will have new polls out later today.
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2014, 09:26:44 am »

I really don't see the Libertarian doing all that well in this race. It's possible that the Libertarian in the Governor's race hits 5%, but here...she's underwhelming, not impressive, ideologically-divided (not a Rand Paul Libertarian), and this contest is increasingly becoming known as one that's coming down to the wire. Fewer people will waste their votes here, I believe. She might hit 2%, but we'll see.

It's also worth noting that we're almost out of undecideds at this point, and a good chunk - a majority - have been breaking in Nunn's direction according to the polls. Yes, this defies the trends and playing field we usually see in Georgia, but so does this entire campaign and election cycle. I don't see why she can't keep up the momentum with the ones that are left at this point.

Agreed, the highest I've seen a Libertarian in a Georgia Senate race over the past 20 years is 3.6%. More likely than not, Libertarian support levels off at 2.3-2.5% on election day when people have to make an actual choice.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2014, 09:28:06 am »

Thankfully there's a runoff. I always thought Perdue, parody of self-funder, would be awful and it's worse than I imagined.

He ran a great primary campaign, but I can't get over his sh**teating grin. He's just the douchiest candidate in the country.
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Secretary of Billionaire Affairs Pete Buttigieg ($-IN)
20RP12
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2014, 10:30:39 am »

Dominating!
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Bacon King
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2014, 12:15:07 pm »

Thankfully there's a runoff. I always thought Perdue, parody of self-funder, would be awful and it's worse than I imagined.

He ran a great primary campaign, but I can't get over his sh**teating grin. He's just the douchiest candidate in the country.

The hallmark of his primary campaign was having a fit over losing the Chamber of Commerce endorsement, so I wouldn't even call that great
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2014, 01:43:39 pm »

Alternatively, if control of the Senate is at stake, turnout could be relatively high.  There is no way to know exactly how many people will vote at this point.

If control of the Senate is at stake, Nunn would be doomed. Whatever crossover support and right-leaning independent support she's getting now would evaporate instantly.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2014, 02:22:55 pm »

Alternatively, if control of the Senate is at stake, turnout could be relatively high.  There is no way to know exactly how many people will vote at this point.

If control of the Senate is at stake, Nunn would be doomed. Whatever crossover support and right-leaning independent support she's getting now would evaporate instantly.

Strictly speaking if the Senate is going to change control it will have already done so by the January 8th runoff. A Nunn victory would only move the 50R-49D chamber to an even split
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2014, 02:29:05 pm »

Alternatively, if control of the Senate is at stake, turnout could be relatively high.  There is no way to know exactly how many people will vote at this point.

If control of the Senate is at stake, Nunn would be doomed. Whatever crossover support and right-leaning independent support she's getting now would evaporate instantly.

Strictly speaking if the Senate is going to change control it will have already done so by the January 8th runoff. A Nunn victory would only move the 50R-49D chamber to an even split

An even split = Democrat control. Joe Biden would be staked permanently in Washington, DC to break ties.
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