GA: CNN/ORC: Nunn leads general & runoff (user search)
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  GA: CNN/ORC: Nunn leads general & runoff (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA: CNN/ORC: Nunn leads general & runoff  (Read 3012 times)
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« on: October 24, 2014, 08:50:37 AM »

I is going to drop off by at least 2-3 points. Should largely break to the Republican ideologically, but not uniformly. So figure maybe a one point tick for Perdue (if even).

3 points is the outer range for Nunn to avoid a runoff. Unlikely, but possible. That lead gets to 4, a runoff may be averted.
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2014, 09:26:44 AM »

I really don't see the Libertarian doing all that well in this race. It's possible that the Libertarian in the Governor's race hits 5%, but here...she's underwhelming, not impressive, ideologically-divided (not a Rand Paul Libertarian), and this contest is increasingly becoming known as one that's coming down to the wire. Fewer people will waste their votes here, I believe. She might hit 2%, but we'll see.

It's also worth noting that we're almost out of undecideds at this point, and a good chunk - a majority - have been breaking in Nunn's direction according to the polls. Yes, this defies the trends and playing field we usually see in Georgia, but so does this entire campaign and election cycle. I don't see why she can't keep up the momentum with the ones that are left at this point.

Agreed, the highest I've seen a Libertarian in a Georgia Senate race over the past 20 years is 3.6%. More likely than not, Libertarian support levels off at 2.3-2.5% on election day when people have to make an actual choice.
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 02:29:05 PM »

Alternatively, if control of the Senate is at stake, turnout could be relatively high.  There is no way to know exactly how many people will vote at this point.

If control of the Senate is at stake, Nunn would be doomed. Whatever crossover support and right-leaning independent support she's getting now would evaporate instantly.

Strictly speaking if the Senate is going to change control it will have already done so by the January 8th runoff. A Nunn victory would only move the 50R-49D chamber to an even split

An even split = Democrat control. Joe Biden would be staked permanently in Washington, DC to break ties.
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