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  NC: SUSA: Tie
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Author Topic: NC: SUSA: Tie  (Read 1436 times)
Miles
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« on: October 27, 2014, 10:49:43 am »
« edited: October 27, 2014, 10:51:40 am by Miles »

Report.

Hagan (D)- 44%
Tillis (R)- 44%
Haugh (L)- 5%
Other - 3%
Not sure- 5%

10% already voted, and Hagan leads 56/37 with them.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2014, 11:13:52 am »

101 point race gap. I didn't even know that was possible.


Though I prefer Tillis, I think Hagan pulls this out. He can't break out with the election next week, Hagan's ground game is strong, and moderates are breaking 75% - 25% in favor of her.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2014, 11:14:48 am »

No change from SUSA's last highpoint poll.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2014, 11:25:35 am »

Report.

Hagan (D)- 44%
Tillis (R)- 44%
Haugh (L)- 5%
Other - 3%
Not sure- 5%

10% already voted, and Hagan leads 56/37 with them.

There are less than 100 people in the survey voted already if it's 10%. MOE for that is about +/- 10-11%. Pretty much meaningless.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2014, 11:26:35 am »

"To be included, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 & 2012, or needed to have registered to vote thereafter."

Junk poll!
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2014, 03:47:10 pm »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Survey USA on 2014-10-25

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, I: 5%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2014, 04:40:32 am »

101 point race gap. I didn't even know that was possible.

That's nothing. Here's a 173 point gap.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/mississippi.html
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2014, 04:55:49 am »

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2014, 10:04:03 am »

"To be included, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 & 2012, or needed to have registered to vote thereafter."

Junk poll!

I agreed with this comment when it was posted, but now I'm rethinking this. Obviously it is bound to be slightly off by using these this strict boundary, but the WSJ had a project voter demographic on page 2 today, and nationwide, this electorate is projected to be 1 point whiter than 2010! I believe old's increased a few points as well. The only downside for the GOP was that a good deal of moderates turned into liberals, but % conservatives went up too from 2010. I was quite surprised as I was suspecting it to be in between the past two elections slightly closer to 2012 rather than slightly more extreme than 2010. This might actually be this tight. I still have Hagan by 1-2 at the moment, but I don't know if I could say for sure.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2014, 10:11:51 am »

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.


He's been winning whites consistently by something like 55/35. Its actually pretty on par with 2008; Hagan lost whites 57/39 then.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2014, 10:25:14 am »

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.


He's been winning whites consistently by something like 55/35. Its actually pretty on par with 2008; Hagan lost whites 57/39 then.

What would 2008 have looked like with a 2010 electorate?
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2014, 10:45:22 am »

^ Sadly, there were no exit polls in 2010, so its hard to compare apples to apples.

Bush's margin in 2004, though, was about the same as Burr's and he put together a similar coalition. Bush won the white vote 73/27.

Hagan won the two-party vote 54/46. If Dole ran slightly behind Bush's numbers, and got only 70% of whites, she would have flipped Hagan's margin.
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