NC: SUSA: Tie

[Miles]

Report.

Hagan (D)- 44%
Tillis (R)- 44%
Haugh (L)- 5%
Other - 3%
Not sure- 5%

10% already voted, and Hagan leads 56/37 with them.

[Lief 🗽]

No change from SUSA's last highpoint poll.

[Recalcuate]

Report.

Hagan (D)- 44%
Tillis (R)- 44%
Haugh (L)- 5%
Other - 3%
Not sure- 5%

10% already voted, and Hagan leads 56/37 with them.

There are less than 100 people in the survey voted already if it's 10%. MOE for that is about +/- 10-11%. Pretty much meaningless.

[Lief 🗽]

"To be included, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 & 2012, or needed to have registered to vote thereafter."

Junk poll!

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Survey USA on 2014-10-25

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, I: 5%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

101 point race gap. I didn't even know that was possible.

That's nothing. Here's a 173 point gap.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/mississippi.html

[Ljube]

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.

[Miles]

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.

He's been winning whites consistently by something like 55/35. Its actually pretty on par with 2008; Hagan lost whites 57/39 then.

[SPC]

Well, Tillis still isn't winning enough whites to win this one, but the race seems to have tightened.

He's been winning whites consistently by something like 55/35. Its actually pretty on par with 2008; Hagan lost whites 57/39 then.

What would 2008 have looked like with a 2010 electorate?

[Miles]

^ Sadly, there were no exit polls in 2010, so its hard to compare apples to apples.

Bush's margin in 2004, though, was about the same as Burr's and he put together a similar coalition. Bush won the white vote 73/27.

Hagan won the two-party vote 54/46. If Dole ran slightly behind Bush's numbers, and got only 70% of whites, she would have flipped Hagan's margin.